A FRENCH princess sometime in the 17th or 18th century was told that the peasants were restless and complaining they had no bread.

THE prime minister has now extended the 21-day countrywide lockdown to 40 days, that is, till  May 3.. While doing this, no explanation has been given on what basis the lockdown has been extended, and why for a 21-day period. Instead, in a briefing, the ministry of foreign affairs claimed a significant fall in infections based on certain modelling studies done by the ICMR. The ministry of health and family welfare first denied knowledge of any such ICMR modelling studies, later claimed that this was done by certain other groups.

AS I write this column (April 2), Covid-19 is crossing a million infected cases in the world and nearly 50,000 dead. In India, the total infected cases are more than 2,000, with 51 deaths. It is clear that all countries are affected. It is a matter of time before a set of clusters or hot spots form and Covid-19 takes off in the country. Once it takes off, we are in exponential growth with a doubling rate that very soon makes the numbers look frightening. This is where Wuhan was six weeks ago, Italy entered about 3-4 weeks back and the US is in now.

IT is now clear that Europe, particularly the core European Union countries – Italy, Spain, France, and Germany – is the new epicentre of the Covid-19 epidemic. China, followed by South Korea, managed to contain their outbreaks; the European countries did not. The US and UK numbers are creeping up, poised to take off at any moment. In the US, only the Trump administration’s lack of testing – either intentional or due to incompetence – is hiding the real numbers.

THE novel coronavirus or COVID-19 epidemic appears to be under control in China, but could create new epicentres in South Korea, Italy and Iran. If this happens and creates multiple countries acting as new centres of the epidemic, we could be moving towards a pandemic. South Korea saw 214 new infections on February 24, though reports indicate a sharp drop in new infections. Northern Italy is now under lockdown, and has emerged as another centre of the epidemic, with people returning from Italy spreading the infections to other countries.