The Annual (Delhi) Air Pollution Debate
Raghu
WINTER is here, bringing with it a heavy pall of pollutant laden smog over Delhi, and on most of northern India along the Indo-Gangetic plains. During October-February, and especially during the peak pollution months of November-December, governments at the Centre and in Delhi, as well as the media and even the Supreme Court, are suddenly abuzz with policy statements, articles and commentary about air pollution and what needs to be done. From time to time, different scapegoats have been targeted as being primarily responsible, and silver bullet “solutions” are offerred. Problem is, Delhi and other north Indian cities have consistently figured in the top 20 most polluted cities in the world for a long time now. Despite all the fulminations, little has changed. Except that the basic factors involved, the main pollution sources, and the long-term approach required towards a solution are all reasonably well-known to scientists and decision-makers, but continue to evade strong targeted action due to powerful interests involved. These issues have been addressed repeatedly in these columns but are worth reiterating.
Beyond debating points and academic policy discussions, air pollution has become one of the most pressing, all-India public health crises, some would even say an emergency. About 17 lakh people are estimated to have died all over India in 2022 due to air pollution, and in Delhi, about 17,200 people are estimated to have died in 2023, about 15 per cent of all deaths in the capital that year. Increasing number of hospitalizations for major respiratory and related cardiac and other ailments, prolonged bouts of asthma including among children, and other serious issues including cancers have been reported in Delhi and elsewhere. Obviously, outdoor workers, construction and other and informal sector workers, street vendors and delivery agents are among the worst affected. Poor and malnourished residents living in congested low-income areas with poor sanitation and hygiene are more vulnerable, along with infants, the elderly and those with pre-existing lung and heart ailments.
Air pollution clearly needs to be addressed on a priority basis.
DELHI ALONE NOT AFFECTED
While Delhi has been grabbing the headlines, air pollution is a chronic problem all over the country, to a lesser or greater extent.
Cities and towns in the Indo-Gangetic plains have higher annual average air pollution (classed as Moderate to Poor, corresponding to the multi-parameter Air Quality Index or AQI values of 101-300) than peninsular India and along either coast (Satisfactory to Moderate or AQI 51-200) with many more Good days than in northern India. Northern plains are characterized by the winter “inversion” in which colder, heavier air laden with pollutants is trapped under a layer of warmer air, taking pollution levels to much higher, more dangerous levels. Strong winds and sea-breezes along the coasts also help blow pollutants away. So the problem is undoubtedly more serious in the north including cities such as Guwahati. The point is that all cities in India have much higher air pollution than the norm, given high population density, power plants, industries and other economic activities, and burgeoning often highly polluting vehicles. Even a quick search on the internet will reveal several surprises among smaller towns and cities with high air pollution levels.
India’s air pollution standards prescribe much higher norms than those in Europe for example, which are themselves slightly higher than WHO norms. India sets a maximum limit for PM 2.5 (particulate matter of size 2.5 microns or 1000th of a millimeter) at 60 μg/m3 (micro-grams per cubic metre), usually exceeded many times over, as against the EU’s 20, set to go down to the WHO standard of 10 μg/m3 in 2030. The EU also has tighter standards for Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and other nitrogen oxides (together NOx), Sulphur dioxide (SO2), Carbon Dioxide and surface Ozone (O3). All these latter are serious and very harmful pollutants that are rarely talked about in India, where particulate matter visibly contributing to smog, is focused on almost exclusively.
Particulate matter can be ground down to ever smaller sizes, such as by automobiles moving over road dust. The finest particles such as PM2.5 can be absorbed into the lung and block pores impairing respiratory functions, whereas even finer particles can directly enter the bloodstream. Particulates also provide convenient medium for other pollutants to condense around, and also for chemical reactions with gaseous pollutants to form “secondary particulates.”
The National Clean Air Mission launched in 2019 has set moderate targets of reducing PM10 levels by 40 per cent in 131 Cities (with poor air quality and 1 million+ Cities) by 2025-26, yet the progress as of 2023 has been poor against even these modest targets. Most funds under this scheme are unused and lapse. The Mission needs complete overhaul with stiffer targets and timelines, and systematic and rigorous monitoring.
FALSE SOLUTIONS IN DELHI
Over the past several years there has been a really confusing medley of analyses, commentaries and opinions in studies by multiple authorities on pollution sources and solutions, often at contradicting each other due to differences in sampling, models and methodologies. As a result there has been lack of clarity on major causes, strategies for mitigation, targets and institutional mechanisms. There is a bad need to cut through the confusion and arrive at a broad picture than may inform potential strategies.
The confusion has also driven false narratives, deliberate attempts at obfuscation, and silver bullet solutions that would magically obviate air pollution over Delhi.
For many years, stubble burning by farmers of Punjab and Haryana has been favourite scapegoats for media, the BJP Central government (since both States were governed by opposition parties) and even the Supreme Court which repeatedly demanded strict penalties and punishment for the banned practice. Many organizations and commentators, including in these very columns, had clearly shown that stubble-burning took place only over a very short period of a few weeks in October-November to clear left-over stubble after the paddy harvest in preparation for wheat sowing. Studies had shown that even this contributed only around 10 per cent of pollutants over Delhi at worst of times. Efforts by both Union and State Governments to assist farmers in clearing the stubble through machines have been gradually bearing fruit, although much still needs to be done. Government data now shows an almost 90 per cent decrease in stubble burning over 5 years. In any case, the current severe-to-hazardous pollution levels in Delhi, much after stubble-burning has stopped, should hopefully put an end to this canard.
“Anti-smog guns” or glorified water spraying systems, which could obviously only bring down particulates over a short distance were then pushed by the Delhi government, strongly supported by the SC! Then there was artificial rain by seeding clouds to generate rain, with an estimated 2-3 per cent success rate across all international experiments. All this amounting only to mopping the floor while the tap stays open!
FIGHT THE REAL PROBLEM
Cutting through the clutter, we can arrive at a broad characterization of sources of pollution in Delhi based on considering data from all the dfferent studies referred to above: about 40-50 per cent vehicles, about 30 per cent road plus construction dust, and the rest from Industries, biomass burning, brick kilns in surrounding areas etc. There could be some quibbling about these numbers, but the broad picture is not likely to change much. If Delhi targets its vehicular or transportation sector, dust whether from construction or from ambient conditions, and industrial pollutants, coal-fired power plants and brick-kilns in neighbouring states, it would make a major dent in air pollution levels. But even today, the media reports that the PMO is interesting in yet another source apportionment study. There are no mystery pollutants to be unveiled!
It is noticeable that no authorities want to tackle the powerful automobile or construction lobbies, both of whom deny major responsibility and point fingers elsewhere. Press reports of a meeting in the Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD) yesterday state that discussions revolved around dust, biomass burning, industries in surrounding areas, but no mention of vehicles! The biggest offenders in biomass burning are not neighbourhoods but the 5 big Waste-to-Energy incinerators, run by private operators on behalf of the MCD, which reportedly burn mostly unsegregated solid waste including plastics at undesirably low temperatures of around 800C and spew out massive quantities of particulates and toxic gases such as furans and dioxins. These WtE plants continue to operate with “green” signals even from the NGT and the SC!
Delhi is overrun with personal vehicles, 13 million for a population of 22 million! Obviously pollution levels will be high, especially with almost 50 per cent of these conforming only to obsolete BS-III or earlier pollution norms. The only answer is to massively shift passengers from personal to badly needed public mass transit systems. The Delhi Metro is a good contributor to mass transit, catering to about 7 million passengers daily. As of 2024, it is estimated to have taken over 650,000 personal vehicles off the roads. But it is highly gentrified and oriented to the middle-class as regards pricing. A large number of common people rely on Buses for public transport, but Delhi’s Buses, currently having about 5300 CNG and 1700 E-Buses CNG Buses (about 4000 with DTC and 3000 with Cluster Buses, including 1700 E-Buses. Transport planners project a demand for 15,000 Buses, including small E-Buses to serve interior roads, with good last-mile connectivity and integration. Delhi’s highly under-utilized surface railway system also cries out for revival and modernization. Non-motorized transport including dedicated bicycle tracks and pedestrian walkways are also needed.
Construction activities require to be strictly regulated to control dust pollution. Another, mostly ignored and forgotten problem is the creeping desertification around Delhi due to the rampant destruction of the Aravalli hill range for quarrying and real estate, removing the dust-shield the hills provided Delhi and its environs. Unfortunately, even the SC recently went along with the Union Government in “redefining” the Aravallis in such a way as will further encourage desertification.
There are many battles to be fought.
