THE budget figures these days mean very little. The difference between what the budget provides and what actually happens does not come to light even after a time-lag of two years, while earlier two years were the limit. And knowing this, the government provides figures in the budget which are extravagant and hence meaningless, but look pretty. What is remarkable about the 2020-21 budget however is that notwithstanding massive liberties taken with figures, this budget still has been so non-descript that hardly anyone outside of government has had a kind word to say about it.

WEALTH data are quite unreliable; and wealth distribution data even more so. Not much faith can be reposed on the absolute figures; but cross-country comparisons, and also movements in the shares of the top decile or percentile of the population over time in any country, are less likely to be affected by the infirmity of the absolute figures.

EVEN as the growth rate of the Indian economy is slowing down, and the index of industrial production actually showing negative growth for three consecutive months, August to October (over the corresponding months a year ago), the inflation rate in the economy has started accelerating. Significantly, the acceleration in inflation has been the sharpest precisely during these very months when the contraction in industrial output has been the most pronounced.

WHEN income growth slows down in an economy, so does the growth of tax revenue within the given tax regime. Since the government has certain expenditure obligations, to meet these obligations it has to either impose additional taxes or expand its fiscal deficit.