Karnataka: Emerging Picture of the Contest
Vasanth N K
LAST week, further developments exposed the governance of the BJP government, including a new case of corruption by an MLA. A video surfaced showing a bribe being given to an aide of the MLA for clearance of a tender. In Mandya district, a gang of self-proclaimed "cow-protection" vigilantes brutally killed Idris Pasha, a driver of a vehicle transporting cattle. Some aspects of the case suggest that it is part of the BJP's communal polarisation attempts. Accused Punith Kerehalli, who is known for his involvement in cow-protection vigilante violence and his proximity to several BJP leaders, showed the vigilante action on Facebook live, excluding the murder. The police registered a complaint against the victim under the cow protection act. After the murder came to light, the accused went into hiding but continued to come live on Facebook, justifying his actions and abusing opposition leaders. After widespread condemnation and agitation, an FIR has been filed, and he was arrested in Rajasthan, where he was also accused of extortion and torture with a sten gun.
Agitations against changes in reservations by Banjaras and Panchamasali continue unabated. Despite protests against the introduction of tolls on an incomplete Mysore Expressway, the toll price was increased, but it was withdrawn after widespread criticism. Two SSLC papers were leaked. These developments exposed further corruption, communal polarisation, misgovernance, and anti-people policies of the BJP government.
In election-related developments, there were resignations by three senior BJP leaders, including the MLC of Shivamogga, the home district of Yediyurappa. MLC and former Minister H Vishwanath held a 'repentance satyagraha.' He was repenting for being at the forefront of the efforts to bring the "most historically corrupt" BJP government to power in the state. There were reports that Sudeep and Darshan, two reigning superstars of Kannada Cinema, were threatened to support, campaign for, and even join BJP. Sudeep has even lodged a complaint about some anonymous threat. However, in a Press Conference in which he appeared with CM Bommai, Sudeep announced that he will campaign for whichever candidate Bommai indicates. But Darshan has not spoken so far (April 4th). It was reported that IT and ED have been used to threaten them. Meanwhile, the party hopping of MLAs and ticket aspirants between Congress, BJP, and JD-S continues.
As announcements of candidates from various major political parties are being made, a clearer picture of the electoral contest in Karnataka is emerging.
CONGRESS LEADING THE CONTEST
Congress kicked off its campaign quite early with a political rally at Davangere, with unprecedented mobilisation of over six lakhs on the 75th birthday of former CM Siddaramaiah in August 2022. It was followed up with the 'Prajadhwani Yatra' crisscrossing the state. Congress has made four promises (or 'guarantees') to the people with wide appeal, viz. 'Anna Bhagya' - free 10kg rice every month for people below the poverty line; 'Gruha Lakshmi' scheme - each housewife gets Rs 2,000 per month; 200 units of free electricity every month for every household; unemployment allowance of Rs 3000 per month for graduates and Rs 1500 for diploma holders for two years. Congress' poll strategy is to exploit the unprecedented anti-incumbency of BJP and project the (relatively) better performance of the Siddaramaiah-led Congress Government of 2013-18. It is trying to bank on its assets – past implementation of welfare schemes, secularism, social justice, and good governance.
The Congress party, in its campaign, has tried to charge BJP with rampant corruption (though its own past is not above board) and communalism (its poor record of defense of minorities and interventions to fight it limiting its appeal). Its attempt to attack BJP for Manuvad and raise its banner of social justice (though limited to reservations) was countered by BJP’s social micro-engineering. However, last-minute ad-hoc changes in the reservation system by the BJP and hostile reactions to it have further muddled the issue. Congress may not benefit too much from it, as it also shares the blame for using it only as an electoral tool and lacking sincerity in implementing and timely addressing issues of the reservation system. Although it has tried to oppose (limited only to Assembly) some of BJP’s anti-farmer, anti-worker, anti-people laws, the role of Congress governments in Karnataka in the past and in other states now in bringing such laws does not give it credibility. Its position towards neoliberal economic policies in general is also ambivalent at best. Due to the above, Congress is fighting only on the basis of huge anti-incumbency of BJP but is not able to get a positive vote with clear alternative policies. It may be foolish to expect it from Congress, but that will limit its chances.
In addition, the Congress party in Karnataka continues to be plagued by factionalism. Factions led by Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar, both of whom aspire to become chief minister, are prominent factions with a strong base in the state. There are other sources of disunity within the party, including conflicts between original Congress members and recent/past defectors, caste-based factions, as well as factions backed by the High Command and other leaders.
Despite all of this, Congress has taken the lead in the Karnataka contest and announced its first list of 124 constituencies quite early. However, due to multiple contenders in most other constituencies backed by factions, fear of key leaders' revolt or threat of joining other parties and spoiling winning chances, the finalisation of the remaining seats is being held up. Congress may also be postponing it to assess BJP/JD-S candidates in those constituencies. Controversy about the allocation of two (one safe and the other challenging) seats for Siddaramiah has also complicated the situation. Whenever the final list is announced, there may be revolts and resignations. The overconfidence of leaders about Congress getting a majority may also harden the bargaining of factions/leaders. Congress does not have a permanent organisation going down to the constituency/booth level. Only close followers of candidates and paid workers take the local campaign up to the booth level, and this does not begin until the candidate is finalised. However, unlike in other states, Congress is giving a spirited fight to BJP to wrest the state back.
BJP IN ALL-OUT BATTLE
The BJP is entering the contest with huge anti-incumbency. It has failed to fulfill most of the promises in its manifesto and budgets. Its bid to weaponise the issue of reservations for electoral gains seems to have gone awry or backfired. It is banking only on communal polarisation, the magic of the Modi-Shah duo, augmented by micro social engineering. It is focusing on highlighting the 'achievements' (often false and misleading) of the BJP government with huge ads in print and visual media. Its 'Godi media' does the job of blaming the bungling of the government on the opposition or anybody else.
The BJP has also started its campaign quite early with Vijay Sankalp Yatras covering all constituencies. Modi and Shah duo have visited the state regularly, almost once in a fortnight, attending rallies, roadshows, announcing or inaugurating schemes/projects. It has held caste conventions, converted all festivals to distribute goodies and earn the goodwill of the electorate. It has used its hold on the state government, local bodies to the hilt to contact voters. Its propaganda machinery in social media is working diligently overtime.
The BJP in the state is currently plagued with factionalism that has surpassed even that of the Congress. In addition to the Bommai and Yediyurappa factions, the one led by B L Santhosh (backed by the RSS) holds more sway than the other two. Factionalism within the BJP also extends to other dimensions, such as the original RSS/BJP cadre/leaders versus defectors, as well as Vokkaliga and other caste-based lobbies. The chief ministerial and ministerial positions are the main points of contention between these factions, with Bommai, Vijayendra (son of Yediyurappa), and Prahalad Joshi (backed by B L Santhosh) being seen as contenders for the Chief Minister's position. Family politics is also on the rise within the BJP, with many senior leaders pushing for their sons/daughters to be given prominent roles. Despite attempts to isolate the Yediyurappa faction by other factions, the BJP still needs him due to his mass base and appeal among the masses.
The BJP claims to have democratized candidate selection by incorporating internal surveys and consultations. This involves collecting proposals of three names from all elected party members in local bodies and members of all party committees in a constituency. However, the final selection will be made by the State leadership and the High Command. Nevertheless, the BJP is expected to face disruptions, revolts, or desertions from many unsuccessful aspirants once the candidate list is announced. As of April 4th, the BJP has not yet been able to announce even the first list of candidates due to these challenges.
However, the BJP's strength lies in its well-oiled election machinery, with dedicated cadre at the booth and even voter list page levels, which gives them a formidable advantage. Additionally, the availability of unlimited resources and an innovative propaganda machinery make the BJP a serious contender despite the obstacles they face.
JD(S) OTHER SIGNIFICANT CONTENDER
The JD(S), a major regional party in Karnataka, has historically stood for regional identity/aspirations and anti-communalism. It had a strong base among farmers in South Karnataka and the potential to lead a non-Congress, non-BJP third front with alternative policies. However, it has failed to fulfill this role and instead has engaged in power-sharing with Congress and BJP, rather than expanding its base. Congress is also partly responsible for pushing JD(S) towards BJP, with a big-brotherly attitude and attempts to break the alliance while being in coalition with JD(S).
In recent years, JD(S) has compromised its core values of secularism and farmers' interests by sharing power with BJP, remaining silent during the national farmers' struggle, and having ambivalent positions on neoliberal economic policies. As a result, JD(S) has been losing ground over the past decade and is often perceived as limited to South Karnataka and Vokkaligas. Critics accuse the party of being run by one family and struggling to attract or retain other cadre/leaders, while being content with playing the role of kingmaker. The intra-family controversy over the candidature of Bhavani (Deve Gowda's daughter-in-law) for Hassan during a crucial electoral battle is seen as unnecessary.
However, JD(S) has taken an anti-BJP and anti-communal stand recently in the run-up to the elections, including a state-wide Pancharatna Yatra that covered most parts of the state. The party has also announced an alliance with BRS and released its first list of candidates for 93 constituencies.
Apart from the three main bourgeois-landlord parties, there are other parties contesting the elections in Karnataka. An alliance of seven Left parties consisting of CPI(M), CPI, CPI(ML-Liberation), SUCI(C), Forward Block, Sarvodaya, and RPI has been raising people's issues and fighting for a pro-people alternative for several years. Other contenders in the fray include Kalyana Karnataka Party (formed by mining baron and ex-BJP leader Janardhana Reddy), SDPI, AAP, BSP, and KRS. More information about them will be available in the coming weeks when the candidates for all constituencies are finalised, providing a clearer picture of the contest in Karnataka.
Meanwhile, four election surveys have been announced, with two predicting a majority for Congress, one for BJP, and one predicting a hung assembly. However, without the announcement of candidates for all constituencies, these opinion polls may not accurately reflect the actual outcome of the elections.
