Karnataka Goes to Election
Vasanth N K
THE election schedule for 224 seats of the state assembly in Karnataka with an electorate of 5.2 crores was announced on March 29. Elections will be held in a single phase on May 10 and the results will be announced on May 13. The last day for nominations is April 20. Over 58,282 polling stations will be set up with 34,219 being in rural areas and 1,320 women only booths.
Before the election schedule announcement, inauguration spree continued in the last week with Prime Minister Modi visiting Karnataka for the third time in election campaign cum official visit. But the rally at Davanagere in central Karnataka which was supposed to be the conclusion of Vijaya Sankalpa Yatras held all over the state, elicited poor response. Meanwhile the spree of gifts distribution continued. The Election Commission, on complaints from opposition parties, seized massive amounts of gift materials (eg, watches, clocks, cookers, sarees) with names of current MLAs and major ticket aspirants. Most of them belonged to the BJP including C T Ravi, a BJP MLA and national secretary. A series of full jacket page advertisements which are virtually election ads, were issued by the government of Karnataka in major dailies advertising the achievements of ‘double engine government’.
BJP MLA Madal Virupakshappa, accused in the KSDL (Karnataka Soaps & Detergents Ltd) bribery case launched by Lokayukta, was finally arrested after the High Court cancelled the interim anticipatory bail given to him earlier. He was denied bail on the basis of deposition of the MD of KSDL citing his interference in purchase of raw materials. In another serious blow to BJP’s image, a person who was a broker, accused and a key witness in the PSI scam, was found dead under mysterious circumstances.
Meanwhile the Congress stole a march over other parties announcing first list of candidates for 124 constituencies where there are no serious multiple contenders. Even before that, many MLAs and ticket aspirants have started switching between parties (Congress, BJP, JD-S) based on the chances of getting party tickets. Also ‘Operation Hand’ is also on to attract aspirants from JD-S and BJP to Congress. JD-S held a large rally at Mysore concluding its state wide Pancharatana Yatra.
ON RESERVATIONS
BJP tried to address electoral challenges (described in the report published last week) it was facing due to the demands for reservation and inner-reservation by different communities, through last minute measures. After hiking reservation for the SCs from 15 per cent to 17 per cent, the government announced that 6 per cent reservation would be given to SC left (Madiga) sub-category, 5.5 per cent to SC right (Holeya), 4.5 per cent per cent to touchables and 1 per cent to others. This instead of controlling the damage for BJP has sparked off violent reactions. On the one hand Madigas are not satisfied with the token measure which may not materialise at all. The inner reservation has to be put under Ninth Schedule to put it beyond judicial scrutiny. The Bommai government has only written a letter to centre regarding this in the last minute. If BJP was serious it should have done all this in its nearly four year ‘double engine government’ period. Also Madigas are irked with all of the increased 2 per cent of SC reservations going to ‘Holeyas’ and ‘Touchables’ who according to them are already ‘hogging’ the whole reservation. On the other hand, ‘Touchables’ and a section of ‘Holeyas’ oppose the inner reservation per se because it will cut into their existing opportunities. Banjaras (or Lambanis) – a major caste in ‘Touchables’- have reacted with attacks on the house of former BJP CM Yediyurappa and other continuing violent protests.
BJP also announced a drastic measure of withdrawal of 4 per cent reservations to Muslims in 2B of OBC category and re-allocated 2 per cent each to the newly created category 2C where Vokkaligas and category 2D where Lingayats respectively are the major castes. By this measure, BJP has tried to achieve twin objectives of further religious polarisation and please influential Vokkaligas and Lingayats. However this measure has also evoked strong reactions. Withdrawal of 4 per cent reservations to Muslims particularly has been condemned. This reservation was introduced in 1995 on the recommendations of Backward Commission and on the basis of backwardness. It is not based on religion and is not unconstitutional, as BJP says to defend its decision. It has been recommended by several commissions in other states and also has been upheld by courts when challenged. Except for the BJP, all other political parties have severely condemned the move. BJP’s assertion that Muslims are ‘given’ reservation under the EWS also does not hold water, since economically socially educationally weaker sections which form the bulk of the Muslims simply cannot compete with strong upper castes.
Even many Vokkaliga and Lingayat organisations have condemned the diabolical move. Hence it may not result in polarisation as BJP intends i.e., ‘Hindus’ liking its move and voting for it en masse. It has clearly angered the Muslims and Muslim organisations have held many protest demonstrations. The anger is so strong that it may lead to en masse tactical voting so that BJP is not just defeated in the constituency, but is also not able to form the government again. Also Bommai has refrained from acceding to Panchamasali (a Lingayat subsect) demand. BJP is reported to have put enormous pressure on the Panchamasali seer who is leading the agitation to welcome the move. He was pressurised to toe the BJP line that by increasing the Lingayat quota by 2 per cent, Panchamasali demand has been met. But the other community leaders and members are not convinced and are angry. Again, a whole set of these changes made in OBC categories (including scrapping of reservations for Muslims) are open to judicial scrutiny. This is not only because most of the changes have been done without a study or a commission’s recommendation, but also because the total reservation of 56 per cent exceeds the given 50 per cent. Without putting all these changes under the Ninth Schedule, they are liable to be scrapped by courts.
Hence, last minute ad-hoc measures of the BJP to address the reservation conundrum may not bring much positive results. The sections who are beneficiaries are sceptical and those who lost (or fear losing) existing opportunities are angry and all see it as just an election ploy.
Two of the five major factors that have an electoral impact were analysed in the last report. Rest three are analysed below:
CORRUPTION, MIS-GOVERNANCE
AND SCANDALS
While corruption, mis-governance and scandals are not new in any party’s rule in Karnataka, but the enormous scale of these are. People cannot forget that BJP came to power through massive corruption. Karnataka BJP has the dubious distinction of pioneering the ‘Operation Kamala’. As already detailed in an earlier report (People’s Democracy, February 19, 2023), the case of 40 per cent commission alleged by contractors association and the PSI scam alone are themselves very huge. Not only is the scale unprecedented, the brazen way in which the government refuses to acknowledge the scams and refuses to order any enquiry, is also never seen before. Both the government and the godi media go after the people who unravel these scandals and demand proofs from them. Apart from this, the impact of corruption in public works (such as roads, bridges, flyovers) in terms of delay and poor quality are directly experienced as never before.
Mis-governance of the BJP government is symbolised by its massive failures during the Covid pandemic particularly in the second wave – preventable deaths, sufferings, hunger, reverse migration, destitution etc. Its failures to prevent or handle heavy flooding, waste disposal, water tank conservation are other examples. Scandals involving ministers, MLAs, officials, such as the sex-CD scandal involving a minister are also too numerous to be forgotten.
Given the track record of the BJP in the state, Prime Minister Modi cannot even raise the issue of corruption in the state campaign. Corruption, mis-governance, scandals are likely to be taken up by the opposition in a big way. This factor is also likely to strongly counter-act on the communal card that the BJP is trying to play. This is particularly true because people did expect much less corruption, better governance and scandal-free government from the BJP compared to the Congress. These expectations have not been met.
DOUBLE ENGINE VS
REGIONAL IDENTITY/AUTONOMY
The ‘double engine government’ slogan of the BJP did work in the last elections, as there was a feeling in a section of people that having governments of different parties in the state and centre are detrimental to the interests of the state. But people have seen in the last four years of the ‘double engine’ government that Karnataka did not get any advantage over ‘non-BJP ruled’ states, but rather it was at a disadvantage and did not get its due because it was taken for granted. Denial of GST share dues, imposition of Hindi, ignoring Kannada in central competitive exams, disappearance of many banks which were state icons such as the State Bank of Mysore, Vijaya Bank, Syndicate Bank, talk of merging Nandini with Amul, attacks on state’s role in education and many other state subjects – and silent acceptance of these by the state BJP have shown that the double engine not only does not work, in fact is counter-productive. As such, given the increasing centralisation which even precedes the BJP rule, there is a strong urge for regional autonomy and identity. While BJP continues to harp on double engine, Congress, JD-S and other opposition parties have taken up cudgels for regional identity/autonomy. This is likely to be an important electoral factor, though it does not carry the same weight as the earlier three factors.
DEVELOPMENT:
INFRASTRUCTURE VS HUMAN
Development or ‘vikas’ was another BJP slogan which was attractive to Karnataka electorate. Here also BJP has nothing spectacular to show except some infrastructure projects most of which were initiated earlier. Also the idea of development is being narrowed down, as never before, to few infrastructure and FDI projects. Human development aspects such as education, food, health, employment, livelihoods, sustainability are being increasingly, totally left out. Attacks of BJP on earlier existing welfare programmes are being felt by people. Although fascination for infrastructure projects continues, realisation is dawning that these are not relevant to most people. Need for comprehensive human development programmes is being felt. BJP did benefit earlier from the last minute welfare schemes like Ujwala. But people are also aware of failure of schemes like Ujwala.
Concrete plans or promises towards comprehensive human development programmes can be a major factor driving electoral choice. But the idea of development of all the three major parties – BJP, Congress and JD-S is majorly confined to infrastructure projects. Although all parties do announce few ad-hoc welfare schemes, and while in opposition show some concerns for human development programmes, they do not make it a major electoral issue. Left and progressive forces do try to make it the major election issue. Comprehensive human development rather than infrastructure projects is an electoral factor, although it may not become a major one.
Five major factors analysed above show that the BJP is at a disadvantage in most of them. But it does not necessarily mean that the major opposition parties have any great advantage, as their past performance is not much better either. BJP is only at a relative disadvantage and capability to convince the electorate that ‘we are better than the other’ will matter. Also these five factors are by no means the only factors; they are only the state-wide overarching factors. Over and above these, local and constituency issues, candidates’ profile, caste structure and other factors also do impact the results. It may be too obvious to add that money power, media power, campaign reach, cadre strength to reach people and their connect can also be decisive, where BJP clearly is at an advantage.
