Election Scenario in Telangana and AP
N S Arjun
THE division of Andhra Pradesh into two states -- Telangana and Andhra Pradesh -- will happen formally on June 2. Therefore elections to state assembly and Lok Sabha are taking place in the undivided state of Andhra Pradesh itself. But that is only technical in sense. Politically the electoral scene is markedly different in both the regions. If Congress party is vying for power in Telangana region, it is battling for life in Seemandhra region (the area comprising residual Andhra Pradesh), hardly able to find candidates to field on its behalf. Similarly if YSR Congress party, headed by Jagan, son of former chief minister of state late Y S Rajashekar Reddy, is bidding for power in Seemandhra, it may at best hope for a single digit score in Telangana. Not only the strength of parties, the issues, apart from basic livelihood ones, are also quite different in the two states.
TELANGANA
The electoral battle for the general elections and assembly polls in Telangana is going to be multi-cornered -- Congress-CPI combine, TDP-BJP combine, TRS, CPI(M) and YSRCP on their own. The CPI(M) is contesting two Lok Sabha constituencies, Nalgonda and Bhuvanagiri apart from 38 assembly seats in Telangana. State secretariat member Cherupally Sitaramulu is the candidate from Bhuvanagiri while Nalgonda district secretary Nandyala Narasimha Reddy is the nominee from Nalgonda seat. The Party has withdrawn its candidate Afroze Samina from Khammam after reaching an understanding with YSRCP. This understanding is limited to Khammam and Nalgonda districts.
The CPI reached an understanding with Congress party for Khammam Lok Sabha and 9 assembly seats in the region. CPI undivided state committee secretary K Narayana is the candidate for Lok Sabha from Khammam. Congress has not put up a candidate from here. The CPI has justified its alliance with Congress saying that the situation in Telangana is different from all India where they would continue to fight Congress.
The CPI(M) has ruled out supporting Narayana's candidature since the CPI has allied with the Congress. It has made it clear that it will not have any truck with those parties that are aligned with either BJP or Congress.
The TDP and BJP forged an alliance after intense wrangling over number of seats and the constituencies to contest. The TDP has conceded 8 Lok Sabha seats (out of 17) and 48 Assembly seats (out of 119) to the BJP in Telangana. In AP, it has conceded 5 Lok Sabha (out of 25) and 15 Assembly (out of 175 seats). This sparked off resentment among aspirants in both parties and led to vandalism in their offices. Security at both state offices was beefed up.
Chandrababu Naidu has joined hands with the BJP once again after a gap of 10 years. It may be recalled he had defected to NDA camp just on the eve of 1999 elections even while he was convenor of the United Front alliance. He quit NDA in 2003 citing Gujarat riots. Later he had also publicly stated that it was his biggest mistake in life to have joined hands with BJP. But now once again he has shifted camp opportunistically. He is praising the same Modi to the skies saying that if TDP comes to power in residual AP, he will bring Gujarat like "development" to the new state. Some Muslim leaders in TDP like the editor of Urdu daily Siasat, Syed Zahed Ali Khan, have quit TDP protesting this alliance.
The calculation of TDP is that this alliance will help in projecting the party's bid for power in AP in terms of Naidu's so-called governance record and Modi's backing for central assistance in the future. The BJP Telangana unit was not at all keen given the impression among people that Chandrababu tried till the last minute to block the creation of Telangana. But the state unit was apparently over-ruled by central leaders who are keen to take Chandrababu Naidu into NDA fold and use his services for government formation in case there is a shortfall of numbers.
Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) is bidding for power in the first elections being held after Telangana has been formed. The party that was established in 2001 with the sole aim of achieving statehood for Telangana is claiming entire credit for the realisation of statehood. Congress party, which expected that TRS would merge with it after its announcement of statehood, is severely disappointed with TRS rejection. In fact, TRS has even rejected the Congress proposal for an electoral alliance. So, the fight now in Telangana is mainly between Congress which is claiming that it “gave” Telangana and TRS which is claiming it “achieved” Telangana. There is a war of words going on in the campaign between Telangana Pradesh Congress Committee president Ponnala Laxmaiah and TRS president K Chandrashekar Rao. Union minister Jairam Ramesh is also pitching in by labelling TRS president KCR as a ‘betrayer’ and ‘unreliable person’.
The Congress party which took a lot of risk in deciding to carve out Telangana just on the eve of elections is indeed feeling betrayed. It is virtually wiped out in Seemandhra region which has 25 MPs and where people see Congress as main villain for breaking up of the state. In return it is not even sure of getting 10 out of 17 Lok Sabha seats in Telangana region. If TRS had, as promised, merged it with Congress, then they could have swept the entire seats. The way Congress high command, especially Digvijay Singh dealt with TRS leadership on this issue was also to be blamed. They thought TRS has no option but to merge. Now it has boomeranged.
ANDHRA PRADESH
The election battle in the residual state of Andhra Pradesh is going to be mainly between YSR Congress party of Jaganmohan Reddy and the TDP-BJP alliance with Congress, or whatever is left of Congress, nowhere in the picture. The nascent party Jai Samaikyandhra Party, floated by former chief minister of the state N Kiran Kumar Reddy is also in the fray. The CPI(M) has reached an understanding with JSP in some seats as both parties took the same position of keeping the state united.
The nominations in the region ended on April 19 and the campaign is set to pick momentum in the coming days. The TDP-BJP alliance that fructified after hard bargaining and amid bitterness among both parties cadre, especially in Telangana, went through further drama. TDP supremo Chandrababu Naidu announced a day before closure of nominations in a public meeting that the alliance may not happen in this region because BJP has fielded weak candidates and it may help YSRCP. BJP rushed its spokesperson Prakash Javedakar to hold talks with TDP leaders. At the end of the day, it turned out to be the proverbial storm in the tea cup with BJP changing its two candidates and Naidu announcing that he is for the alliance in the interest of the nation!
There has been talk in local circles that big corporate groups that are keen for this alliance were involved in ironing out differences between the two parties. A local media baron has reportedly facilitated this alliance along with the national leader of BJP hailing from this region. But the situation on the ground is hard to iron out. BJP cadre and leaders in Vijayawada celebrated the prospect of negation of alliance by distributing sweets in their office even as Javadekar was holding talks with TDP leaders. So the possibility of smooth working and transfer of votes is being doubted. Political observers in Hyderabad feel that the TDP-BJP alliance may at best narrow the lead that Jagan has taken in the region.
The CPI(M) is contesting two Lok Sabha seats in the region. Dr M Babu Rao from Araku (ST) and K Subramanyam from Tirupati filed their nominations accompanied by large processions of activist supporters. The Party is also contesting in 33 assembly constituencies. As per the all India line of defeating Congress and rejecting the BJP and its allies, the CPI(M) AP state committee held talks with Jai Samaikyandhra Party (JSP) and CPI for seat adjustments. The JSP led by former chief minister of the state N Kiran Kumar Reddy has declared its support for CPI(M) candidates in the two Lok Sabha seats. Addressing a joint press conference, Kiran Reddy said that it was only the CPI(M) that took an ideological position in favour of keeping the state united. CPI(M) state secretary P Madhu said that the Party has decided to ally with JSP given the commonality of positions and the fact that it has taken both anti-Congress and anti-BJP position. The CPI, unlike in Telangana region where it has allied with Congress, is willing to work with CPI(M) against Congress and BJP here. CPI(M) state secretary Madhu and secretariat member Y Venkateshwara Rao held talks with CPI state secretariat member K Ramakrishna in this regard.
CPI(M) Polit Bureau member B V Raghavulu addressed a huge gathering in Vishakapatnam recently. He called for defeating the TDP-BJP alliance and rejecting both YSRCP and Congress parties. He faulted these parties for division of the state and highlighted that it was CPI(M) alone that stood consistently for the cause of united state. He sought votes for CPI(M) candidates who were always in the forefront of people’s struggles. After ruining the state with their rule for last 10 years, these parties are making false promises of bettering the lives of people. He faulted Jagan’s YSRCP for its illusory promise of making Seemandhra capital into another New York!
CPI(M) central secretariat member V Sreenivasa Rao campaigned in both Seemandhra and Telangana region. Addressing meetings he sought EC intervention into the provocative remarks made by BJP candidate Giriraj Singh in Jharkhand where he said that all Modi opponents must be sent to Pakistan. CPI(M) central committee member K Hemalata has also campaigned extensively in both the regions.