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Social Media to Have Little Influence on Indian Elections: Report
Are we over estimating the influence of social networking websites on the Indian elections?
AMID the high decibel action on social media sites, you would be forgiven for thinking that the Indian elections this year could see a vote swing influenced by Facebook and Twitter.
A survey by Pew Research Center says just about 16% of Indians actually use the internet. Just about 51% of this population use social networking sites, and barely 35% of the social media users discuss politics. So, is the whole social media outreach a bit of shooting the breeze?
According to the Pew survey, 90% of social media users say they use it to stay in touch with family and friends, while 87% say they use it to share/view music and videos.
While internet usage in India is still playing catch-up, over 77% use cell phones, which they mainly use for text messages, or sharing pictures. Only a tiny proportion, 8%, exchange political views on cell phones.
According to a report by the Internet and Mobile Association of India (IAMAI), political parties are typically spending 2-5% of their budget on fuelling their online presence.
The IAMAI report said, "Based on the number of eligible voters, data of actual voter turnout from the Election Commission of India and field interviews, the report estimates that there could be a vote swing of 3%-4% in 24 states - states where internet users are sizeable. The vote swingers can be predominantly young men and non-working women whose affiliation towards social media is high."
The report zeroed in on 160 seats where social media is expected to influence voter turnout.