AS the BJP and its prime ministerial candidate intensify their aggressive election campaign, questions have begun to be raised about the inclusive character of the ‘Gujarat Model of Development.’ Modi has often asserted that his economics and model of development has benefited all. But this claim is based on a manipulation of data which hide the actually rising inequalities within the state. This is seen in the debate that has erupted on the poverty line within the state. HOW MANY POOR IN GUJARAT? In January, the Department of Food and Civil Supplies of the Gujarat government notified its poverty line as being Rs 324 per month for a rural family and Rs 501 per month for a family living in the urban areas. This effectively meant that a family was poor if its average income was below Rs 11 per day in the rural areas and Rs 17 per day in the urban areas. Bur by this standard, not more than one per cent of the population of Gujarat would be considered poor. During the debate that ensued after this revelation, the Gujarat government clarified that the poverty line was set by the government of India, and that it could not modify it unilaterally, and that it was only following the guidelines set by the government of India in 2004. But this claim appears to be a half truth. As per the estimates released by the Planning Commission in 2013, the official poverty line for Gujarat has been set at a monthly income of Rs 932 in the rural areas and Rs 1,152 in the urban areas. This figure is almost three times higher than the circular issued by the Gujarat government. In terms of numbers, the commission has pegged the total number of poor people at 102.23 lakh or 11.16 per cent of the total population. This is much higher than the officially stated figure of 31.1 million people covered by the Gujarat government under the BPL scheme. However, even such an estimate seems to be a gross underestimation, as pointed out by eminent economist Utsa Patnaik. Pointing out the faulty methods of estimation of the number of poor, she calculated the number of the poor on the basis of a minimum requirement of 2,200 calories per person to survive. Anyone who could not afford to purchase these minimum calories should be considered as below poverty line (BPL). On the basis of this assumption, the poverty line in Gujarat could be revised to a monthly per capita expenditure of Rs 1,290 in the rural areas and Rs 2,080 in the urban areas --- as calculated on the basis of consumption expenditure in 2009-2010. By this standard, almost 76 percent of rural and 66 percent of urban Gujarat could be considered to be under the redefined poverty line. Significantly, this direct poverty ratio --- as worked out by Utsa Patnaik --- is higher than that in the rural areas in states like Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Maharashtra and Rajasthan and in the urban areas in Odisha, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. This shows that there has been a gross underestimation --- by both the state and central governments --- of Gujarat’s poverty. POVERTY THROUGH DISPOSSESSION In the context of the above analysis, it appears that the main driver of poverty within the state of Gujarat is the growing landlessness in rural areas. This is seen from Table I alongside. Table I shows an exponential increase in landlessness during 2009-10. This landlessness is clearly a result of the policies of corporate agriculture and contract farming as the cornerstone of the Gujarat model. This is also reflected from Table II alongside, which presents the decadal changes in the labouring patterns in the state. It is clear from Table II that the increase in the main work is driven mainly by the rise in the agricultural labour force, which appears to be a direct result of the increase in export market driven corporate farming. Further, the rise in female labour outstrips that of male labour, thus pointing to a growth in the low paid wage labour. This is also true of the rise in the urban female labour force, once again pointing towards the creation of lowly paid jobs in urban areas. A recent report reveals that the real wages in Gujarat are one of the lowest in the country. Whereas a regular urban worker in the country gets Rs 450 per day, in Gujarat the wage rate is Rs 320 per day, one of the lowest in the country. Further, the wage of an urban casual labourer is Rs 145 per day which is significantly lower than the all-India average of Rs 170 per day and ranks 20 amongst all the states. In rural areas the state has an average of Rs 113 per day for rural labour, which is significantly lower than the all-India average of Rs 139 per day. Once again, Gujarat ranks 20 amongst all states in terms of rural wages. Here too the female workers are the worst off and get an average wage of Rs 89 per day, thus showing why there has been a spurt in female rural workforce in agriculture. All this is reflected in the conditions of life of the urban and rural people. As per the NSSO data for 2011-12, more than 70 percent of the rural population lives below the average monthly per capita expenditure (MPCE) of Rs 1,480, while about 65 percent of the people live below the average MPCE of Rs 2,377 in urban areas. This reflects the abysmal conditions of living for a majority of the Gujaratis and has a direct relationship with the extent of poverty in the state. This brings to the fore the reality of the Gujarat model of development. For, given this scenario, it is obvious that the Gujarat model of corporate development is driven by a large army of labour which is formed through multiple patterns of dispossession and which works at abysmally low wages. Hence any talk of the declining poverty rates is nothing but a manipulation of figures that is aimed at creating a hegemonic vision of corporate development which will be pursued by the BJP if it comes to power. It is therefore necessary to intensify the attempts to build a counter hegemonic attack against the neo-liberal corporate capital in this season of elections. TABLE I Year 0 ha 0.01-0.004 ha 0.005- 0.40 ha 0.041-1 ha 1.01-2.0 ha 2.01- 4 ha Above 4 ha Land Owned 2009-10 2011-12 3.4 7.2 15.6 25.9 35.6 40.0 21.3 0.5 8.8 0.7 9.8 2.8 5.6 1.0 Land Possessed 2009-10 2011-12 5.4 5.0 16.3 27.9 34.9 26.0 20.1 15.3 7.6 13.3 9.5 7.6 5.3 4.2 Land Cultivated 2009-10 2011-12 42.9 51.4 0.6 1.0 14.5 8.5 19.0 15.7 9.6 12.1 8.1 7.0 5.3 4.2 Calculated from different rounds of NSSO TABLE II Person Male Female Total Rural Urban Total Rural Urban Total Rural Urban Total Workers 0.9 -2.3 2.6 2.3 1.6 3.3 -4.5 -6.5 5.3 Main Workers 2.2 2.2 -2.1 -1.1 -0.8 -2.2 3.8 1.8 0.7 Cultivators -5.3 -4.3 -0.3 -3.4 -2.2 -0.6 -10.2 -9.8 -0.6 Agricultural Labourers 3.3 8.4 1.3 3.0 7.0 1.0 8.0 13.5 0.3 Houshold Industries -0.6 -0.1 -0.6 -0.5 -0.7 -0.4 -1.7 -0.6 -4.7 Others 2.6 -4.6 -0.7 1.0 -4.2 -1.4 2.9 -3.0 4.7 Calculated from PCA Highlights, Census of India, 2011