IN the second week of September, North Korea carried out its fifth nuclear test. The last two tests have been in quick succession. The latest nuclear test, the most powerful so far, coincided with the country's 68th independence day celebrations. It was conducted in the underground testing facility of Punggye-ri in the northeast of the country. The magnitude of the blast has been estimated at between 10 and 20 kilotons, much higher than the test in 2013 which was estimated to be between 6-7 kilotons. Pyongyang has claimed that the latest test was that of a hydrogen bomb. Pyongyang announced that it had conducted the test “to determine the power of our nuclear warhead”. The statement from the government claimed that it has now gained the capability of producing “standardised and minimised” nuclear warheads.

As expected, the nuclear tests were roundly condemned by international community, with the loudest criticism coming from Washington and its allies in the region. President Barack Obama described North Korea's decision to go in for another nuclear test as “a grave threat to regional security and to international peace and stability”.  He demanded “serious consequences” for North Korea's actions, including the introduction of even “more sanctions”. North Korea is now the most heavily sanctioned country in the world but this has not impacted on the country's determination to chart out its own unique way of preserving its sovereignty. “The pressure for more international sanctions is laughable”, the North Korean foreign minister, Ri Yong Hi said in a speech at the NAM conference in Venezuela in the third week of September. He said that North Korea would continue to strengthen its nuclear power.

Every year, huge joint military exercises involving US and South Korean troops are held on the Korean peninsula. This year's military exercises involved the participation of 3,00,000 South Korean and 17,000 American soldiers. They were backed by high tech armoured vehicles, artillery and by air and sea power. The North views the annual military exercises as a grave provocation, especially as Washington and Seoul have changed the defensive nature of the exercises into “an offensive one”. After the September nuclear test by the North, the US Air Force flew two B-1 strategic bomber accompanied by four US F-16's and four South Korean F-15's over the southern part of the Korean peninsula, adjacent to the border with North Korea. It was another threatening message to Pyongyang. The B-1's which carry pay loads over 31 tons are used in bombing raids over Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan. The commander of the US forces in South Korea, Gen. Vincent K Brooks, had described the latest nuclear test by the North as “a dangerous escalation” and an “unacceptable threat”. Hillary Clinton, speaking to the media in the third week of September, said that sanctions on the North were a failure. She suggested that America should resort to tougher action. Her rival in the presidential race, Donald Trump, had come in for widespread criticism when he had implied that he would try the negotiating tack with North Korea.

The reaction from Japan and South Korea were equally belligerent. The Japanese prime minister, Shinzo Abe, while describing North Korea as a “grave threat to regional security and to international peace and stability” wanted the international community to “take resolute action. The South Korean military command threatened the North “with a pre-emptive strike” in alliance with the United States.  US-South Korean military exercises this year had rehearsed a military plan, code-named OPLAN 5015m that visualises a pre-emptive strike and “a decapitation raid” to neutralise North Korea's leadership. A top South Korean military official told the Yonhap news agency that the country defense ministry had a plan for the total destruction of the capital, Pyongyang, “if the North shows any signs of using a nuclear weapon”. Many leading conservative South Korean politicians have been demanding for some time that South Korea acquire nuclear weapons of its own.

The US defence secretary, Ashton Carter, was quick to apportion blame to China for the latest nuclear test by North Korea. “China shares an important responsibility for this development and has an important responsibility to reverse it”, he said. This time however, the criticism from Beijing following the nuclear test was somewhat muted. When Pyongyang had conducted its fourth nuclear test in January this year, Beijing had joined the chorus of criticism aimed at the North Korean government and had in tandem with Washington, agreed to implement additional sanctions on Pyongyang. These draconian sanctions included a ban on the export of gold, titanium and rare earths, all important sources of hard currency for the cash starved North. The UN sanctions also imposed a ban on the export of coal, iron ore and iron along with the import of oil, except for “livelihood purposes”. 

China is North Korea's largest trading partner accounting for more than 90 percent of its overall trade. If more sanctions, as demanded by the Americans, are imposed, it could lead to the complete collapse of the North Korean economy and the implosion of the country. The last thing China wants is Korean reunification under American tutelage. Such a development would also mean the presence of American troops and weaponry along China's borders. Beijing has been upset with the North Koreans for destabilising the region with its nuclear and missile tests. 

Washington had used the January 2016 nuclear tests and the medium and the long range missile tests by the North Koreans as a pretext to further militarise the region and strengthen the military alliances with Japan and South Korea. Japan's prime minister, Shinzo Abe, has used North Korea's actions to justify the country’s re-militarisation and to revise the country's pacifist constitution. 

The Obama administration had announced in the middle of the year that it plans to expeditiously deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) batteries in South Korea. Beijing is of the view that the high tech missile interceptor system being installed in the Korean peninsula is part of Washington's military pivot to the East and that it constitutes a direct threat to the country's security. The THAAD system detects incoming missiles and intercepts them at long ranges and high altitudes by using its own hit-to-kill missiles. Washington and Seoul are claiming that the THAAD missiles are being installed only with the goal of protecting South Korea and the 25,000 American troops there.

President Obama told Chinese President Xi Jinping that the missiles are only aimed at thwarting the threat from North Korea. The Chinese side is far from convinced. Senior Chinese officials say that the THAAD system will be able to detect their missiles based on the China's coastline, thus undermining the country's nuclear deterrent. In South Korea itself, there is growing public opposition to the deployment of the missiles, with violent protests erupting near the sites where they are slated to be deployed.

After the latest nuclear test, the Chinese foreign minister, Hua Chunying called on the North to live up to its commitment to denuclearise and urged Pyongyang to rejoin the six party talks aimed at bringing a lasting peace to the Korean peninsula. The six party talks involve the two Koreas, the United States, China, Russia and Japan. At the same time, the Chinese foreign minister urged all the parties involved in the Korean dispute “to speak and act cautiously with a larger picture in mind”.

The Obama administration's policies have played a big role in the scuttling of the six party talks so far. The North Korean government had agreed in 2007 to end its nuclear programme but additional demands by the Bush administration for more on site verifications in 2008, scuttled the deal. President Obama has been demanding the dismantling of North Korea's nuclear arsenal before any resumption of talks. An earlier deal between the US and North Korea in 1994 was similarly undercut after Washington refused to implement its part of the deal, which included the diplomatic recognition of the North and providing it with two nuclear power reactors.

Washington wants Pyongyang to unilaterally sacrifice the nuclear and missile prowess it has acquired over the years as a precondition for the six party talks to resume. It has to be remembered that the North accelerated its nuclear and missile programme only after Washington earmarked the country for regime change in 2003 by including it in the so-called “axis of evil” along with Iraq and Iran. The North Korean leadership has also not forgotten the way regime change was affected in Libya after Muammar Gaddafi voluntarily gave up his nuclear ambitions. A nuclear deterrent, the country's leadership has calculated, is the best guarantee for the protection of state sovereignty against an overwhelmingly superior military force. 

The North's principal demand is for diplomatic recognition from the United States and the formal cessation of hostilities. The North is still technically at war with the United States. The North Koreans want to return to the negotiating table with a strong hand. A few weeks before the latest nuclear tests, the North Koreans had successfully tested a submarine based ballistic missile that flew over 500 km landing near Japanese waters. The North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said that the test showed that his country had entered the “front rank of the military powers fully equipped with nuclear attack capability”. The North Korean submarine missile launch had come in the wake of a second round of joint US-South Korean military exercises in August.