THE 2016 Assembly election ousted the Congress from power in Assam. The Tarun Gogoi-led dispensation was in power for three successive terms since 2001. Bringing an end to the 15-year Congress rule, the BJP, with the help of alliance partners AGP and BPF, came to power with comfortable majority. In the 126-member Assembly, the BJP and its allies have won 86 seats, while the Congress managed to win only 26 seats. A majority of political observers and analysts predicted a hung Assembly. Anti-incumbency sentiments of the people and a strong undercurrent for a “change” were underplayed in their predictions. In the absence of a viable and credible secular-democratic alternative, the BJP and its allies could sail through and taste power for the first time in Assam.

The BJP-led government, headed by Sarbananda Sonowal, was sworn in on May 24 in the presence of political heavyweights from across the country, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Besides Sonowal, 10 ministers, including two ministers of state with independent charges, were sworn in. Two members each from BJP’s alliance partners Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) were among the ministers who took oath.

ELECTION RESULTS

The two-phase election to the Assembly was held on April 4 and 11. The BJP managed to stitch together an alliance with regional parties AGP and BPF, along with a few other ethnic groups. The Congress allied itself with the United People’s Party (UPP), an archrival of BPF in the Bodo Territorial District Areas (BTAD). The All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) entered into electoral understanding with RJD and JD (U). These two allies of AIUDF have little presence or influence in Assam’s politics. The Left parties -- CPI-M, CPI, CPI-ML, RSP, AIFB and RCPI --formed a united platform and fought the elections as an independent ‘Left bloc’ without understanding with any of the non-Left parties. In this election, Assam has registered the highest ever polling percentage in its electoral history. The overall poll percentage has been recorded at 84.72 per cent (1,69,00,479 out of total 1,99,47,690 voters).

In the election, the BJP fielded 89 candidates and won 60 seats with 29.5 per cent of votes (49,92,185 votes). Its regional partner AGP fielded 30 candidates (including six ‘friendly’ contest with the BJP) and won 14 seats. In 2011 elections, it won 10 of the 109 seats it contested with a vote share of 16.29 per cent. This time, AGP’s vote-share has dipped to 8.1 per cent due to lower number of candidates it fielded. The BPF managed to retain its previous tally of 12 and secured 3.9 per cent of votes. But its vote share was 6.13 per cent in 2011 elections. The BJP-AGP-BPF combine has captured 86 seats and they together secured 41.5 per cent of total votes. In other words, 58.5 per cent of Assam’s electorate voted against the BJP-led coalition.

In the 2011 Assembly election, the BJP won only five seats with a vote share of 11.47 per cent. But it could increase its vote share to 36.6 per cent with lead in 69 Assembly segments in the 2014 Lok Sabha election. Out of 14 Lok Sabha seats in Assam, the BJP won seven seats. In the 2014 Lok Sabha election, the AGP and BPF secured 3.8 per cent and 2.2 per cent votes respectively. The combined vote shares of the BJP-AGP-BPF in the 2014 Lok Sabha election was 42.6 per cent, i.e. 1.1 per cent higher that of the 2016 assembly election.

The Congress was hopeful of forming the government in Assam for the fourth consecutive term. But it secured only 26 seats and 31 per cent of votes (52,38,655 votes). It is 1.5 per cent higher than the BJP. But it was 78 seats and 39.39 per cent votes for the Congress in 2011. Its electoral ally, UPP, drew a blank. The AIUDF contested in 79 seats and slightly increased its vote share (12.57 per cent in 2011 to 13 per cent in 2016). The party won 13 seats against 18 in 2011. In the 2014 Lok Sabha election, the AIUDF polled 14.8 per cent of votes and won three seats.

POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE LEFT

The Left’s continually sliding electoral performance in Assam raises questions how it can reinvent itself in a multi-religious, multi-ethnic and multi-national state riddled with politics of identity and divisiveness. It is, indeed, a matter of worry and concern for all democratic, secular and progressive forces in the state. The poor electoral performance needs proper review and thorough examination.

 The CPI(M) fielded candidates in 19 constituencies and drew a blank. The total votes polled by the Party candidates were only 93,508 and it was 0.6 per cent of the votes cast. Even in constituencies like Sorbhog, Rangia, Rangapara, Bijni, Sootea and Sarukhetry where the Party has considerable strength and influence, the CPI(M) could not do better. In the Sorbhog constitutency, the traditional stronghold of the Party, the Party candidate polled 29,084 votes and came third. Similarly, the CPI(M) candidate secured only 12,261 votes in Rangia and came fifth. In Rangapara, the Party polled 8,033 votes, while in Bijni the CPI(M) candidate got only 5,991 votes. In the remaining 15 seats where the CPI(M) fielded candidates, the Party candidates secured less than 5,000 votes in each of the constituencies.

As part of the ‘Left bloc’, the CPI fielded 15 candidates and polled 0.2 per cent of votes (total 37,243 votes). The CPI (ML) contested in seven seats and polled 15,948 votes. The Left parties like the AIFB, RSP and RCPI are virtually non-existent in Assam except in a few pockets. Anyway, the performance of the entire ‘Left bloc’ has been disappointing in this election. Apart from organisational weaknesses and shortcomings, it had to confront many a hurdles during the election.

The Left’s slogan for ousting the Congress from power had, for obvious reasons, massive response from the people. However, it has failed to combat and defeat the communal politics of the BJP. In fact, the Left parties unitedly gave the call to oust the Congress and defeat the BJP and their allies. The Left also had no truck with the AIUDF since the Badruddin Ajmal-led party too tried to garner votes on communal lines and encouraged religious polarisation.

While strengthening the unity, integrity and communal harmony among various sections of the people of Assam for all round development of the state was the primary concern of the Left parties, the communal and divisive forces tried their level best to vitiate the atmosphere only to gain votes. The prevailing political situation was also not conducive to build up and project a broad Left-democratic and secular alternative ahead of the election. In the absence of a viable secular-democratic alternative, the elections in large parts of Assam became virtually bi-polar -- fight between the Congress and the BJP-AGP-BPF combine. However, the Barak Valley and Muslim-dominated districts of Lower Assam witnessed multi-polar contest where AIUDF too had sizeable presence and influence.

SLOGAN FOR ‘CHANGE’ AND POLARISATION

The misrule and unbridled corruptions of the 15-year Congress dispensation, coupled with growing dissidence within the ruling party, played havoc for the Congress. Besides exploiting the strong undercurrent for ‘change’, the BJP and its allies were largely successful in polarising the voters on communal lines. The RSS played a significant role in the victory of the BJP for obvious reasons. For decades, its cadres have been working relentlessly and stepped up its ‘Hindutva’ campaign after Modi came to power at the Centre. As reported in the media, more than 22 organisations and more than one lakhkaryakartas affiliated to the Sangh Parivaar had been working for protection of the ‘indigenous people’. The RSS worked on its strategy of weaning away the Hindu and tribal voters who had, in the past, voted for Congress. Because of the aggressive campaigns by its cadres at the grassroots, many BJP candidates could win even from seats where it had little chances.

The BJP’s commitment towards safeguarding the indigenous people’s rights encouraged the “sons of the soil” to vote massively in favour for the party. Furthermore, shattering the aura of invincibility of the Congress influence among the tea-tribe communities, several Congress heavyweights had to bite the dust in the tea-belt constituencies of Upper Assam and northern bank of the Brahmaputra. The BJP made spectacular inroads into the tea-garden communities. Of the 34 seats in the tea-belt of Brahmaputra and Barak Valley, the BJP-AGP-BPF alliance won 25 seats (BJP-19, AGP-4 and BPF-2), while the Congress bagged only nine seats. The Congress could not win a single seat in the seven districts -- Kamrup (M), Nalbari, Sonitpur, Lakhimpur, Dhemaji, Dibrugarh and Hailakandi. Out of 28 seats in the five districts of Upper Assam -- Dibrugarh, Tinsukia, Sibsagar, Jorhat and Golaghat, the BJP won 17 seats and its partner AGP captured four seats, while the Congress won nine seats only. In BTAD, all the 12 seats were captured by BPF. In the two hill districts of Karbi Anglong and Dima-Hasao, Congress won only one seat while the remaining four seats were captured by the BJP.

In south Assam’s Barak Valley districts, the Congress had won 14 out of total 15 seats in 2011 elections. But in this election, the BJP and AIUDF routed the party and the Congress managed to win only three seats. The BJP won eight seats, while the AIUDF got four in the valley. The Barak Valley results are a huge boost for the saffron party after 1991 when it won nine seats in the Valley in the aftermath of the Babri Masjid demolition. It is reported that the BJP transferred its votes to the AIUDF in a few seats of the valley only to ensure defeat of the Congress.

As a matter of fact, till the announcement of election schedule by the ECI, the BJP’s “popularity” in Assam plummeted significantly. The people of the state were disillusioned with the Modi government for its deceit, duplicity and falsehood. But the BJP has been hell-bent to capture power in Assam by hook or by crook. They projected Union minister Sarbananda Sonowal, a tribal face and “son of the soil” as their chief ministerial candidate. The RSS-BJP worked assiduously to communalise the atmosphere and polarise the voters. It poured enough venom against Muslims.

Badruddin Ajmal’s AIUDF, too, gave much needed fillip to the RSS mission. During the election campaign, Ajmal’s language became increasingly communal to attract the Muslim voters to the opposite pole. However, the election results negate the notions of a monolithic Muslim vote, which was largely split between the Congress and the AIUDF as reflected in their vote-shares. Due to the division of votes between the Congress and the AIUDF, BJP won at least 16 additional seats and the AGP got one with slender margin. It may be noted that the billionaire perfume baron and AIUDF president Badruddin Ajmal lost to the Congress candidate in Salmara (South) which falls under Dhubri Lok Sabha seat that Ajmal represents. Ajmal’s followers attributed their chief’s defeat to the shifting of loyalty by Muslim voters to the Congress in the minority dominated areas of lower Assam.

The BJP’s main election plank has been illegal immigration from Bangladesh. The saffron brigade has always been painting the problems of influx as “Muslim aggression”. The then chief minister Tarun Gogoi’s blue-eyed-boy turned archrival Himanta Biswa Sarma emerged as the chief architect of the BJP’s poll campaign after having successfully turned the issue of “Assamese identity versus illegal Bangladeshi migrants” as the main poll plank. The BJP’s tactical move to stitch alliance with the AGP, BPF and a few ethnic groups, in spite of serious political and ideological differences on many counts, has helped the combination to a great extent. The “strange bedfellows” buried their differences and helped each other. The value-based, principled politics have been given a go-by.

The Assembly election showed unprecedented display of money power and inflow of illegal funds. The Congress and the AIUDF spent crores of rupees, but the BJP spent crores and crores. No one could match with the money power of the BJP. This time the Assam Assembly house of 126 seats will be populated by mostly opulent lawmakers as more than half of the MLAs elected are crorepatis. Compared to the 47 lawmakers of the outgoing Assembly (37 per cent), 72 MLAs of the new Assembly (57 per cent) are crorepatis with average assets of Rs 2.67 crore. Moreover, at least five of the nine former extremists of the ULFA and BLT, who contested on BJP-AGP-BPF tickets, have won. It was not the winning alliance alone that had fielded former extremists. Congress, too, followed suit and fielded extremists in at least two seats. The partisan role of a section of print and electronic media was quite abominable. Certain electronic media brazenly backed the BJP and its allies. The Left parties were either blacked out or brushed aside.

BJP’S VICTORY POSES CHALLENGE

The BJP-led coalition’s victory in Assam means a big task awaits them. The new government will be expected to fulfil their election promises. The BJP and its allies will have to solve the issue of infiltration once and for all. The promise for speedy development of Assam is to be fructified. By registering its first victory in an Assembly election in the Northeast, the BJP will try to use this as a launch pad for further consolidation in the entire region.

Top leaders of the BJP in Assam have already started to carry out its communal agenda. Newly elected education minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, who earned considerable notoriety during his stint in the Congress, has stated that the new government would open Vidya Bharati Schools in all Panchayats of the state. Moreover, he, along with some top BJP leaders, has expressed publicly and forcefully to review the Assam Accord and consider 1951 as the cut-off date for detecting and deporting illegal foreigners instead of  March, 1971. As a matter of fact, the RSS-BJP combine has been communalising the problems of infiltration since long.

The newly elected government has asked the workers and employees of the state government to work 10-hour a day. This call has evoked strong protest from the workers’ and employees’ associations and various other organisations. The capture of power by the rabidly communal BJP in a multi-religious, multi-ethnic and multi-national state like Assam has been a signal of impending danger to the unity and integrity of the people. Certainly, the Left has a great challenge ahead.