KERALA will go to assembly polls on May 16, along with Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. Major coalitions in the state LDF and UDF have started seat-sharing discussions. A vertical split in the Kerala Congress (Mani), the second largest constituent of UDF, gives an advantage to Left Democratic Front (LDF). Francis George, former MP and son of KC(M) founder K M George, former MLAs Antony Raju and K C Joseph and many district level leaders left the parent party and formed a new outfit, Kerala Congress (Democratic). The split may tilt political balance in Central Kerala.

United Democratic Front (UDF) leaders, who have begun the third round of seat-sharing exercise from Monday, will have to start from square one to work out a convincing formula that will douse rising dissatisfaction among its partners. As of now, each coalition partner, with the exception of Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), has demanded additional seats. The Kerala Congress (M) has asked for 18 seats, Revolutionary Socialist Party eight seats, Janata Dal (United) 10 seats. Kerala Congress (Jacob) has asked for four seats, while CMP demand three seats.

IUML has already announced names of its candidates in 20 out of the 24 seats it contested last time. Of the 20 seats where candidates have been announced, the coalition is in a spot in Thiruvambady in Kozhikode district over the rather incisive views expressed by the Thamarassery diocese about the IUML candidate, V M Ummer, who has replaced sitting legislator C Moinkutty.

IUML took a tough stand in the Thiruvambady seat issue during the seat-sharing discussion in UDF and said there would be no change in the candidate announced. There is no question of replacing or reconsidering, said IUML leader and minister P K Kunhalikutty. Putting UDF major Congress under severe pressure the Malayora Vikasana Samithi and Kerala Congress (M) had staked the claim to this seat. With the other four seats, IUML has left it open hoping that it would be able to exchange it with either Congress or Janata Dal (U) which has sought Kunnamangalam, one of the seats the IUML contested last time.

IUML is trying out a strategy of leveraging its political positions by going for seat exchanges and increasing its winning chances. In south Kerala, it has asked for the Karunagapally seat, once the hotbed of the “Madauny movement” in lieu of Eravipuram, a sitting seat of the RSP. IUML has also demanded change in the two seats Kunnamangalam and Kuttiyadi. They wanted Balussery and Nadapuram.

The five rounds of talks with Kerala Congress (M) also ended without reaching any consensus as K M Mani was adamant on getting 18 seats for his party. Kerala Congress (M) has asked for Angamally, Punalur and Ranni over and above the 15 seats it contested last time. It is involved in a tussle with the Congress over Kuttanad and Poonjar seats. But the Congress was not ready to give any extra seat, which the party has contested in 2011. The Kerala Congress (Jacob)’s chairman Johnny Nellore is sulking because he fears that he would be left high and dry in the electoral stakes and the heartburn has affected his ties with his colleague and minister Anoop Jacob. A temporary truce was reached between them but the issue was not resolved yet. Congress has denied Angamally seat, contested and lost by Jhony Nelloor in 2011, to K C (Jacob). 

Meanwhile, talks with Janata Dal (United) turned inconclusive with the party demanding a change in Nemom, Mattannur, Nenmara seats, which have been allotted to them. JD(U) has sought Kovalam, Kayamkulam, Chalakkudy seats which the Congress is not willing to provide. RSP might end up getting six seats and could have the smug satisfaction of protecting some of the seats in its traditional battleground in Kollam district.

The pressure to foreclose the discussion is likely to go up. The immediate challenge is to finalise the numbers and then the constituencies as such. The numbers would more or less depend on the composition of the constituency that is sought by a particular UDF partner. (END)