IN the recently held assembly elections, the Left Democratic Front’s defeat in Kerala, the BJP coming to power in West Bengal with an absolute majority, and the BJP alliance winning again in Assam and Puducherry reveal a dangerous trend. It is essential to understand the factors behind these outcomes and confront this danger.

In Tamil Nadu, the electoral victory of Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) is being hailed on one side as signifying a fundamental change. On the other, there is a dismissive attitude that it is nothing but cinema glamour and social media tactics. Both approaches are superficial and misleading. The electoral outcome in Tamil Nadu requires deeper analysis.

CHANGE IS NOT ABOUT INDIVIDUALS

Unexpected changes in electoral outcome are not new. In 1967, regional bourgeois parties including DMK, Akali Dal, etc. defeated congress in eight states. In subsequent times too, there were new parties and new governments like Telugu Desam party using the concept of Telugu pride and Aam Aadmi Party under the banner of anti-corruption. None of these regional parties, mostly reflecting the aspirations of the regional bourgeoisie, constitute in any sense an alternative to the bourgeois-landlord rule that the Congress earlier and the BJP currently represent.  An alternative is not about persons or parties but about politics and policy.

WHY HAS THE LEFT SUFFERED SEVERAL ELECTORAL SETBACKS IN RECENT DECADES?

The question that arises is why are people searching for change even in states like West Bengal, Tripura and Kerala, where Left governments have followed pro-people policies? Even when the Trinamool Congress (now BJP) in West Bengal, the BJP in Tripura, or the United Democratic Front in Kerala win, they cannot provide better governance than the Left, given their class character and commitment to neoliberal policies. However, there are various external and internal reasons for the Left’s electoral reverses from time to time. We can identify the combined alliance of the exploiting classes, corporate media, the role of casteist and communal organisations, the increasing role of money power and the consolidation of reactionary forces as key factors contributing to the electoral defeat of Left-led governments. The Union government, having concentrated all governing powers, tied the hands of state governments and disabled them.  State governments cannot do much within their limited jurisdiction. That's why the achievements of left-led governments assume significance.

Besides the ‘external’ factors listed above, there are ‘internal factors’ like weaknesses in the party organisation, deficiencies in politicising lakhs of members of class and mass organizations, and inadequacy in effectively communicating the policy positions and achievements of Left governments to the people.

It's not like an arithmetic calculation or formula where you certainly win if you perform or govern well. It's not automatic. Everything from narratives, counter narratives to application of mass line counts in the process.

 CRISIS AND THE DRIVE FOR CHANGE

Globally too, we are seeing widespread dissatisfaction with existing governments leading to frequent changes in electoral outcomes. The urge for change arises from prolonged livelihood crises. When governments follow the neoliberal path, the burdens of the economic crisis created by those policies are shifted onto the working people. Inequality and economic disparities visibly increase. Statistics show that the top 0.001 per cent hold more than the total wealth of the bottom 50 per cent of world population. It's not just the inherent character of capitalism. It shows an intensification of capital accumulation in a few hands.  A similar widening is occurring within countries too. There is also a gender dimension to the economic gap.  

Further, decent permanent employment opportunities continue to decline. Mass layoffs are increasing even in the rapidly expanding IT sectors due to AI and other factors.  Precarious employment has become the norm even in developed capitalist countries. This is leading to increasing discontent among the people and declining confidence in established political parties.

THE SEARCH OF THE YOUNG GENERATION

Bogged down by problems and grievances, if a new voice or new face comes forward in a way that inspires confidence, young people tend to support it, at times, without any deep understanding of the ideological and other issues involved. Taking advantage of this, far right forces, with their enormous resources, divert people’s anger away from the ruling classes and win the elections. In Hungary, one far right ruler has been replaced by another. In Nepal, the new ruling party - Rashtriya Swatantra Party has banned trade unions and students organisations by an ordinance as soon as they formed the government. Technically it may be a change but certainly not a political alternative.

The Political Resolution of the 24th Party Congress of the CPI(M) correctly notes this:

“Utilizing genuine concerns about people’s deteriorating living conditions, neo-fascist forces and far-right parties are spreading in some countries. They have benefited by arousing sentiments like racism, xenophobia, and fear of migrant workers. In the absence of a possible Left political alternative, people’s discontent is used by far-right forces to divide the unity formed during struggles. Anger at established political parties—social democrats and conservatives—that implemented neoliberal policies has also helped people shift toward the far-right and ensure electoral victories for far-right parties.”

“Progressive forces were able to win elections in Colombia, Mexico, Brazil, Sri Lanka, and Uruguay. Where the Left played an active role in people’s struggles and was able to distinguish itself from established political parties, they gained people’s trust and were able to stop the advance of the far-right through their electoral victories.”

In such efforts for change, imperialist intervention has often been present. In the name of “regime change,” imperialism has directly tried to influence electoral outcomes to help right wing forces.

COCKROACHES BEHIND THE ANGER

The formation of the “Cockroach Janata Party” reflects massive discontent against the prevailing social order and its inequities and injustices in India, especially under neoliberal regimes. Here too, concentration of enormous capital is in a few hands, and financial oligarchies are emerging leading to huge inequality. The spontaneous workers’ strike actions too can be understood within this framework. While appreciating such developments, we need to create more clarity on the nature of the  ruling forces and on how to combat them.

WHAT IS THE SITUATION IN TAMIL NADU?

Since 1967, regional bourgeois Dravidian parties have continuously ruled Tamil Nadu. After 1990, neoliberal policies were implemented across the country including Tamil Nadu. They destroyed livelihood of people on a massive scale. The failure of successive central and state governments led to young people seeking drastic change with hope rather than clarity.

A significant number of youths became eligible to vote in the 2026 assembly elections in the state.  Given the discontent with major political parties that had alternated in power and their alliances, the search for change intensified.  Vijay and his party projected themselves as new and different. This caught on. That image politics and social media manipulations played a major role in this is undeniable. The Vijay Makkal Iyakkam (Vijay People's Movement), functioning since 2009, became the foundation for the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam’s organisational structure. In their desire for change, people have voted TVK cutting across money power, caste, religion, etc.

IS IT JUST 5 YEARS OF ANGER?

Dissatisfaction with DMK rule in the last five years is one major reason for the defeat of the DMK and its electoral allies. But the issue is deeper. Discontent with successive governments in the state also underlies the change. With the Left being a small force, a clear, pro-people ideological and political alternative could not be effectively communicated across the state.

This should not be taken as rejecting the role of Dravidian movement in the state. In Tamil Nadu‘s development and progress, Dravidian ideology has played a key role. On issues of gender inequality and caste discrimination, it used to take a broadly progressive stand. The document of the CPI(M) Tamil Nadu acknowledges the significant role of the Dravidian movement in fighting Hindutva politics, though not continuously. Hence even in the new situation, the need to coordinate with secular parties including DMK inside and outside Parliament must be kept in mind.

Identifying the reasons for the electoral outcomes requires more analysis and reflection.  But the fact that Dravidian parties are not in power has opened up new possibilities which must be utilised by progressive forces.

 WHAT ARE TVK’S POLICIES?

In the post poll situation, the CPI(M) took the correct political decision at the right time to extend outside support to the TVK government to prevent Tamil Nadu from becoming BJP’s playground. It also decided on principle not to seek cabinet participation. After the government has been formed, the Party is deciding its approach to the government based on issues. Amidst the quest for cabinet berths and horse trading on all sides, the principled political position taken by CPM is appreciated by many.

TVK’s policies and ideology are still not clear. Their White Paper on State Finances focussed almost exclusively on revenue deficits and state debt, ignoring the performance of the state in terms of economic growth and human development. The underlying framework was primarily neoliberal, harping on the FRBM Act.  Some privatisation announcements have also been made. However, a more informed assessment of their economic policies can only be made when they present the budget. TVK also needs to make explicit their approach towards BJP. They did record their objections to VB GRAMG Act, disinvestment of shares of Neyveli Lignite Corporation and governor's unilateral attitude bypassing the state government.

We must also study the state of regional bourgeoisie in Tamil Nadu, in line with our understanding of changes in their attitude to big bourgeoisie and neoliberalism and their stance on communal forces. It is being argued that after the governments of both major Dravidian parties began going on a path of substantial corporate support—big capital support—there may have been a need for a new party that gains acceptance among people, even from the need to better protect regional bourgeoisie’s interests.

The source of funds or donations for TVK’s election expenditure is not known. Some announcements have been made for “ease of doing business.” This government’s declaration to make Tamil Nadu a $1.5 trillion economy could also be to attract investments. In the process of attracting investments, we must see what kind of concessions they are going to give to capitalists. Their approach to land acquisition must also be watched.

TOWARDS A REAL CHANGE

The left parties have a better opportunity to consolidate left and democratic forces in the state. In this background, three parties - CPI(M), CPI and CPI(ML Liberation) - met recently and formed a coordination committee. Building a Platform of left mass organisations is under way. Using the present new situation, we must take up more issues of basic classes, especially the rural poor. Attention must be given to mobilising youth. It is essential to democratically ensure people’s participation at all levels.

Even though the BJP got only one seat in the Tamil Nadu Assembly election, their capacity for intervention cannot be underestimated. The Union government and central agencies will continue to try in various ways to pressure TVK and change the dynamics of politics in Tamil Nadu.  We must increase our capacity to confront their pro corporate policies and Hindutva communal actions.

Let us carry in mind the hopeful message Cuban President Díaz-Canel mentioned in a recent interview: “There is no such thing as an invincible force”.