All across the world, a million-dollar question is being asked: what will be the final outcome of the war of aggression the US and Israel jointly initiated with the elimination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28? Subsequently, there were ferocious attacks on Iran’s facilities, both military and civilian. As late as March 21, Donald Trump had issued a unilateral threat to Iran, through his most favoured line of communication. The post in Truth Social threatened hitherto unknown level of destruction unless Iran voluntarily removed all impediments on movement of ships through the Strait of Hormuz. It also threatened the destruction of entire power and energy infrastructure of Iran.

Far from backing down, Iran’s counter threat was equally ominous. In the event of this threat being carried out by the US, Iran would destroy the entire energy infrastructure of Israel and the Gulf. On March 23, clearly backing down, Donald Trump posted, “I am pleased to report that the United States of America and the country of Iran, have had over the last two days, very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East. Based on the tenor and tone of these in-depth, detailed, and constructive conversations, which will continue throughout the week, I have instructed the Department of War to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and infrastructure for a five day period, subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions.” In military terms and in the given sequence of events, there can be only one response to that million-dollar question; ‘there is a pause’.

Ever since the initiation of the joint military exercise, both Israel and US had never tired of claiming that the ‘entire business will take just a matter of hours, if not days.’ The understanding was that such a timeline is dictated by the imminent spectacle of an internal revolt against the ruling establishment of the Islamic Republic. With the earlier widespread opposition to the government across Iran, Mossad was confident that this was very much within reach. During the course of the military confrontation, Netanyahu had spoken aloud that the attack and the engagement of US Armed Forces was a cause for which he had worked for the last four decades. On the other hand, within the US, there was strong opposition to the involvement of the US, if not disbelief over the complete military engagement of US through the executive direction of President Trump. This was more so because in US terms, this was clearly unconstitutional without prior approval of the US Congress nor any defined goal. It was also found out that the huge tragedy in South Iran, the killing of 165 school girls, resulted from US Tomahawk missile.

Despite the huge losses that Iran was suffering, particularly what can easily be inferred as targeted assassination of the highest echelons of the Iran’s military and security establishment, far from crumbling, the regime in Tehran survived. The decentralised mosaic of the Iranian strategic and tactical defence structures, not just held on, but retaliated. The economics of Iran’s military defence was also proving to be extremely effective with cheap drones and missiles taking on the heavy-duty barrage of sophisticated weapons in the US-Israeli arsenal. Not only that, Iran was inflicting huge damage on not just military but Israeli civilian facilities. Iran also targeted US military bases across the Gulf. The ‘final nail in the coffin’ was the closing down of the Strait of Hormuz which is the chokepoint for 20 per cent of oil and gas movement of the world. This was disastrous for the global economy as fuel prices went through the roof. Global stock markets also plummeted sharply.

For the last seven days of the military engagement, Trump’s daily feed on Truth Social, makes an interesting read - a study in flip-flops. Therefore, it was more or less clear that faced with sharp criticism, internationally and domestically, President Trump was looking for an escape route. Country after country, former allies in Europe and elsewhere were politely, and at times bluntly, refusing to join his desperate call to join the military action to free the Strait of Hormuz. But the extent of Trump’s desperation can be understood from the fact that within minutes of his post pressing the pause button, the Iranians were merciless. They flatly denied that there was any conversation, let alone any negotiation whatsoever. They claimed that they are prepared to go on till there is a guarantee that such aggression will not recur. Operation of US bases in West Asia will have to come to a halt and reparation for its losses be paid. Therefore, it is clear that it is in fact more than a pause, while there is no need to hazard a guess on the winner or the loser.

But, in the story of this unnecessary and avoidable macabre dance of death and destruction, illegally imposed by US imperialism and its Zionist ally, one of the most pathetic episodes is that of Narendra Modi, the self-proclaimed Vishwaguru. His intervention in the Lok Sabha on March 23, is a testimony to this tragic outcome. In the entire speech, he went on enlisting the difficulties that this West Asian military misadventure has plunged India into, without the semblance of an admission about the very reason for the unfolding of the disaster. His fatal embrace of Netanyahu, assertion during his visit that Israel is the fatherland while India is the motherland, and the constant sight of Donald Trump that he had to suffer, not to speak of a word of condemnation.

We cannot expect that he will have the inclination to go through Lenin’s Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism. Neither can we expect that he will understand the ultra-rightwing offensive of the current Trumpian era is borne out of its frustration to take on the clear signs of emerging multi-polarity anchored by the increasing might of China in the global economy. India, in such a critical conjuncture, cannot survive without the lessons of not putting all its diplomatic eggs in the imperialist basket.