The elections to the Kerala assembly in 2021 broke the jinx of the past three decades that no political front ruled Kerala for a second consecutive term, by electing the Left Democratic Front with a record majority. Will Kerala elect an LDF Government for another five year period in 2026?

The answer to this question is vital not only for the Left in Kerala but also for the Left forces in the country as currently Kerala is the only state under left governance. The UDF, already ten years out of power continuously, for the first time, is desperate to make a comeback. Another five years out of power, they fear, may decimate them. With successive defeats in the state assembly elections in other states, Congress is also desperate to record a win. And the BJP that does not have representation in the assembly has been waiting on the sidelines for too long to convert their presence into electoral seats.

Elections for Local Government

In the local government elections in 2025, which normally precede the assembly elections in Kerala, LDF suffered an unexpected setback.  LDF domination in local governments sharply came down from 577 in grama panchayats to 340, from 111 in block panchayats to 63, from 11 in district panchayats to 7. The setback in urban areas was even sharper with the control of municipal corporations declining from five to one and municipalities from 43 to 29. The only instance of a similar defeat for LDF was in 2010. Nevertheless, in the assembly elections that followed LDF tally was only 2 seats less than majority.

Though the above picture looks bleak, the scenario changes substantially when we examine the share of votes received by the different fronts. One, the share of LDF votes increased by 6.37 per cent compared to the Lok Sabha election. However, this was not sufficient to overcome the vote share of UDF viz. 43.21 per cent. Nevertheless, LDF still has nearly 40 per cent vote share and the gap between the two is narrow. 

Two, in terms of assembly, UDF has a majority in 81 constituencies.  LDF has a majority in only 57 constituencies but the margin of defeat in 32 constituencies is between 1,000 - 10,000 votes. NDA has a majority in just 2 constituencies.

Three, NDA’s vote share is only 16 per cent, slightly higher than what it achieved in the 2020 local government election. NDA’s vote share improved to 19.4 per cent in the last Lok Sabha election, which was significantly higher than vote share of 15.6 per cent in 2019 Lok Sabha election raising the expectation of its leaders like Amit Shah to set a target of 25 per cent for the local government election 2025. However, the results once again proved that the basic vote share of BJP is stagnating in between 15 – 16 per cent in Kerala.

Four, the dynamics of electoral choice in parliamentary elections in the state is that there is a gravitational pull of voters towards parties that have a higher chance of influencing the central government, particularly among the minorities. It would appear that a major segment of the minority votes that shifted to UDF have not yet returned back to LDF. The UDF vote share decreased only by 2.19 per cent.

Five, at the same time, the voting pattern makes it clear that the claim that all minorities have abandoned the Left has no basis whatsoever. In the local government election, the LDF still received around 40 per cent votes. With minorities constituting half the population, the LDF cannot reach 40% vote share without receiving at least one-fourth of the minority votes.

UDF Communal Politics

The Left seeks to mobilize working people cutting across caste and religious divides. The Left grew in Kerala not by exploiting caste or religious feelings. Instead, it built class organisations of working people and fought for their rights. The welfare measures of the LDF government, like increasing pensions, ensuring women's security payments and others, are meant to improve the lives of the poor from all sections of society. At the same time, Left has been the bulwark against Sangh Parivar in Kerala and stood by minority rights and social justice.

But the UDF's politics are different. At all times, the UDF in Kerala has been a confederation of communal forces. Congress leaders have adopted clever maneuvers to bring even mutually hostile communal parties under one umbrella to win elections. The alliance with Jan Sangh to defeat EMS, way back in 1961, and the experiments with Congress-League-BJP alliances in Vadakara and Beypore, are shameful chapters in Kerala's history.

What is happening now? The UDF has been out of power for ten years. The only tactic they know to somehow regain power is to stir up communal feelings. The UDF is now playing this game in the most dangerous way. Along with their traditional ally, the Muslim League, they have now roped in Jamaat-e-Islami, and SDPI, while creating a narrative that the CPI(M) is playing Hindutva communal politics. At the same time, they are opportunistic enough to have a tactical understanding with BJP in some critical situations.

The above was the case of Thiruvananthapuram municipal corporation which BJP won in 2025. In most of the wards that BJP won, the UDF vote share drastically fell. Such tacit understanding with BJP and UDF in certain areas came into the open in the election to the office bearers in many local governments.

The fierce campaign by the UDF and supportive media - branding CPI(M) with the Hindutva label has indeed influenced a section of the minorities, particularly Muslims during the elections. The UDF has also been playing the role of a victim that would be decimated if forced to remain out of power for a third term. In such circumstances the state politics would be polarised between the Left and the BJP and UDF will be washed out. This propaganda also influenced a section of the minority votes.

Absence of Anti-Government Sentiments

There is a near consensus that anti-incumbency was not a major factor in determining the election outcome. The ten years of the LDF government has been exemplary in eradicating extreme poverty, improving education, health care, and housing, and enhancing social security by increasing welfare pensions from Rs. 600 to Rs. 2000. And, a number of new welfare programmes like social security support for homemakers have been launched. At the same time there was a phenomenal expansion of key infrastructure like roads, bridges, buildings and parks through budget and extra budgetary resources totalling around Rs. Two lakh crore.

This development platform of expanding the welfare of the common people  and, at the same time, rapidly overcoming the infrastructure deficit to accelerate the transition of Kerala into a Knowledge Economy, addressed both the poor who are the traditional support base of the left in Kerala and also the development concerns of growing middle class in the state. It is this development agenda that made possible a second term for LDF in 2021.

What is the difference now? The central government has been deliberately denying the eligible revenue transfers to the state and denying the normal borrowing limits. The blockade of the central government created a fiscal crisis in the state resulting in arrears in welfare payments and discontent among the support base of the Left. This was the background of the 2024 Lok Sabha election. After the election review, the LDF re-prioritised the expenditure, ensuring not only welfare payments without arrears but substantially enhancing them.

Despite lack of anti-incumbency why did it not get reflected in the vote share of LDF? We have decided to learn from the people and rectify the mistakes in our policy implementation or style of functioning. Therefore, the entire party has started a house visit programme where all leaders at all levels, from General Secretary and Politburo members to Branch Secretaries, will lead squads visiting every household in Kerala and listen to people. This will be followed by local neighbourhood meetings from the end of January.

Campaign Against Central Blockade and Policies

We realise that we have not been successful enough in creating a general awareness and anger against Central Government anti-Kerala policies. On January 12, the Chief Minister led a day-long dharna of the entire cabinet and elected representatives to protest against Central discrimination. It is to be followed by three Jathas led by LDF leaders touring every constituency in the state. This will be a statewide protest event, the precise nature of which is yet to be decided.

The campaign against scuttling of MGNREGA is yet another issue around which a sustained campaign is being planned. The campaign against the Labour Codes is also gaining momentum. Given the importance of political campaigns, it has been decided that at least one public meeting in every local committee area will be held.

The Media, Old and New

A feature of contemporary India is that mainstream media has been totally subjugated by BJP and the Central government. In Kerala, they are united against the LDF government. With hired professional election managers and huge money invested in propaganda including social media by Congress and BJP, the LDF realises the importance of effectively communicating with the people.

The Left is going to rely on two channels of communications. First is the interpersonal communication which has always been the forte of the Left through house visits and neighborhood meetings. Along with this, a volunteer social media force is systematically being mobilised to counter the paid media of BJP and Congress. Of course, there are Left newspapers, channels and journals. The major battle will be to confront and expose the unprecedented misinformation campaign against the government and the LDF leadership. The LDF in Kerala has entered the battle for 2026 Assembly elections with optimism and confidence in victory.