Farmers’ distress, unemployment and the taint of corruption are dragging it down.

FOR the first time, Maharashtra will witness a battle for the assembly between two weighty alliances with equally widespread and diverse bases. The state sends the second largest contingent to the Lok Sabha – 48 members – and hence this assembly poll is being seen as a crucial test of strength.

The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is represented by the Mahayuti, with the BJP allied with the Eknath Shinde faction of Shiv Sena (SS) and the Ajit Pawar faction of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). The opposition INDIA bloc is called the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) in the state and it is made up of the Congress, the Sharad Pawar faction of NCP and the Uddhav Thackeray faction of Shiv Sena.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections held in May-June this year, MVA won 31 seats while the Mahayuti, which currently holds power in the state, had to face defeat getting only 17 seats. How does this translate into assembly seats? The chart below shows the Lok Sabha result broken up into assembly constituencies.

As can be seen, the opposition MVA won in 151 assembly segments, while the ruling Mahayuti got 127 segments. That would mean a clear victory for MVA and a majority in the 288-member assembly. However, the vote shares indicate a much closer fight. Mahayuti got about 43 per cent of the votes polled while MVA barely beat it by getting 44 per cent.

In any case, Lok Sabha election results do not always translate directly in the subsequent assembly elections. The issues are more localised, fragmentation is more – and the performance of the state government is more under focus. So, while the Lok Sabha results are being seen as a morale booster for the MVA, it is going to be a closer fight in the upcoming assembly elections on November 20.

STATE GOVERNMENT RECORD

To better understand the poll prospects, it is necessary to look at the past five years which have seen tumultuous changes in state politics. In the last assembly election held in 2019, there was an alliance between BJP and Shiv Sena while the Congress and NCP were fighting together. 

The BJP-Sena combine swept the polls getting 161 seats together and a vote share of 42 per cent while Congress-NCP alliance – already known as MVA – could manage 98 seats and 35 per cent votes. Note that a considerable chunk of votes went to others – some 25 per cent. This indicated the disillusionment with established big parties as people searched for alternatives. The dispersed nature of this vote could not translate into seats proportionately. 

However, the election result became infructuous as Shiv Sena broke its alliance with BJP and joined the opposition Congress-NCP alliance. They claimed that BJP had promised the chief minister’s post to them but had backtracked after the result. This led to the formation of Shiv Sena  chief Uddhav Thackeray becoming the chief minister. There was a sordid attempt to pre-empt this by BJP which weaned away Ajit Pawar from NCP to swear him in as chief minister in the dead of night, assisted by a pliable governor, Bhagat Singh Koshiyari, a BJP man.

However, this move fell through and Uddhav Thackeray became the chief minister leading an unlikely alliance. This government lasted for about two and a half years and fell in June 2022 after a section of Shiv Sena, led by Shinde, split and allied with BJP. Simultaneously, Ajit Pawar also split the NCP and led a group of MLAs to join with Shinde and BJP. This even more unlikely alliance, later christened Mahayuti, thus came to power in the state with Shinde becoming chief minister. Devendra Fadnavis of BJP (a former chief minister) and Ajit Pawar of the NCP splinter became deputy chief ministers.

This wheeling dealing – allegedly lubricated by horse-trading and underhand deals – tarnished the image of all three partners in the eyes of the people. Although electoral politics in India is often dirty and the source of much corruption, these events set new lows leaving people aghast. The Mahayuti has struggled to get over this taint even as it went about withdrawing cases filed against Ajit Pawar by the Anti-Corruption Bureau, and also by the Economic Offences Wing. This has become a standard practice of BJP across the country, with one report claiming that cases against 23 of 25 opposition leaders were withdrawn after they teamed up with BJP.

This along with the indifferent functioning of the Mahayuti government, the growing perception that Maharashtra was being discriminated against by the centre and the aggressive opposition by MVA with Uddhav Thackeray drawing upon sympathy has all combined to leave the Mahayuti in a difficult position.

FARMERS’ DISCONTENT

One of the most damning reasons for anger against the Mahayuti has been the way BJP and its alliance government in the state has dealt with the farmers. There was a wave of protest against the three agriculture-related laws brought in by the Narendra Modi government and Maharashtra saw massive protests for a year in support of the blockade at Delhi’s borders by farmers. Hundreds of farmers from Maharashtra periodically joined these protests.

The adivasis in the Thane region, too, continued to struggle for their demands and repeated the march to Mumbai. Repeated drought and crop failures, increasing debt and rising farmers’ suicides continue to haunt the state and the Mahayuti government has failed to address these issues. In 2023, as many as 2,851 farmers died by suicide, while in 2022, the number was 2,942. It has been reported that in 2024, in the first six months, 1,267 farmers have embraced death. This horrendous toll can only happen if the festering agrarian problems are not addressed.

Maharashtra is a highly urbanised state, with 45 per cent urban population. But even then, 50 per cent of the population is linked to agriculture, which contributed only 12 per cent to the gross state domestic  product (GSDP) in 2022-23. This shows the high degree of saturation in agriculture-related work, indicating lack of employment in industries and services.

UNEMPLOYMENT AND SOCIAL DISCORD

The state has been wracked by a prolonged agitation by the Maratha community demanding that it should be classified as an Other Backward Class (OBC) in order to benefit from reservation in education and government jobs. This, too, has created insurmountable problems for the Shinde government, although they have promised that this will be accepted. Other OBC communities are strongly opposed to this as they fear a loss of opportunities for themselves. The basic cause behind this – raging unemployment and unprofitable agriculture – remains unaddressed all round by the dominant parties.

In the context of all this, the incumbent Mahayuti is likely to face a tough battle at the hustings. However, the consolidation of votes needs to be ensured through a dynamic campaign by the opposition, if a Haryana-like result is to be avoided.