THE mass revolt against the authoritarian government of Sheikh Hasina Wazed has had a dramatic outcome with the fall of the government and Sheikh Hasina fleeing the country.  On Monday (August 5), the `March to Dhaka’ called by the student protestors saw tens of thousands of people reaching the city and marching to the prime minister’s residence. The army chief informing Hasina that the army would not fire on civilian protestors was the final blow to a tottering regime. 

The popular upheaval had begun as a student movement against the 30 per cent quota in government jobs reserved for descendants of freedom fighters. The Hasina government, instead of engaging with the students, resorted to heavy-handed tactics to suppress the protests.  By the time the Supreme Court intervened and reduced the quota to only 5 per cent, nearly 200 students and civilians had been killed in police firings and attacks by goons of the ruling party. The movement revived after a short lull with renewed demands for punishing those responsible for the killings, release of all arrested persons and accountability. This soon metamorphosed into the demand for the resignation of Prime Minister Hasina. 

Since the Hasina-led Awami League came back to power in the 2009 parliament election, her fifteen-year rule saw a progressive march to authoritarian rule.  Three parliament elections, including the January 2024, were held one-sidedly to favor the ruling Awami League.  There was large-scale suppression of opposition parties and State institutions worked openly for the ruling party. What evolved was an iron-clad authoritarian regime, in which the media, civil society and all dissent faced repression and the prospects of arrests and jail.

Bangladesh did make economic progress during the first decade of her rule.  The GDP grew, fuelled by a garments exports led growth.  But the fruits of this development were cornered by a thin strata, many of whom became fixtures in the Awami League and the inner-circle of Hasina. To the extent that in 2019, it was estimated that Bangladesh would see the third quickest growth in the next five years of the number of high-net-worth (HNW) individuals in the world.  This should be contrasted with the fact that at present, there are about 18 million young people out of work with bleak prospects of jobs. 

Corruption became rampant and the nexus between the corrupt coterie of businessmen and ruling party politicians began to alienate the middle classes and the intelligentsia.  What began as a student movement in protests against quotas in jobs, which was seen as largesse for the ruling party broadened due to repression into a mass movement to uproot the Sheikh Hasina government. 

Given the nature of such a movement, fundamentalist forces like the student wing of the Jamaat-e-Islami were able to also join the protests. The immediate aftermath of the abrupt departure of Sheikh Hasina and the collapse of the government machinery has been an anarchic situation. The police, hated for its killing-spree, now finds itself bearing the brunt of the anger of the people. Many police stations have been attacked or shut down. There have been widespread attacks on Awami League offices, businesses and houses of its functionaries and some have been killed. 

The two days, after the fall of the government, have also seen attacks on Hindu temples and the minority community in several districts.  It is evident that while the main brunt of the attacks is being faced by the Awami League leaders and businessmen, fundamentalist elements are also exploiting the chaos to target minorities.

However, what is heartening is the stand of the student leadership, civil society and certain political parties, who have called for protection of minority places of worship and defending the minority community. At the call of the student coordination body, there are squads, including of  Muslims and Hindus, to protect temples in innumerable places. 

It is imperative that an interim government be put in place immediately, so that a semblance and administration and law and order can be restored.  Muhammad Yunus, the founder of the Grameen Bank and Nobel laureate, has agreed to be the chief advisor in the interim government, as per the demand of the students. The other advisors in the government have to be appointed without much delay.

The student leadership, along with civil society organisations and democratic-secular and Left political forces, must unitedly work to ensure a smooth transition to a democratic order. This is particularly required recognising that the Jamaat-e-Islami and the fundamentalist forces are entrenched in society. Only a broad unity of all democratic forces can prevent any take-over by rightwing fundamentalist forces. 

The role of the United States in the current scenario must also be watched closely by the progressive and Left forces in Bangladesh.  More than Pakistan or China, it will be the United States which will actively interfere to reshape the agenda in the post-Hasina period. The US would like to draw Bangladesh into its Indo-Pacific strategy.

In India, as usual, the RSS-BJP circles and the corporate media have begun spinning out conspiracy theories regarding the developments in Bangladesh.  The most popular one, which has echoed throughout the Godi media is that the ISI and China have jointly conspired to overthrow Sheikh Hasina. For this, various so-called evidence is being adduced.  For the ruling circles in India and their media, it is inconceivable that there can be a popular mass movement in Bangladesh to overthrow a corrupt and authoritarian regime. The fact that Sheikh Hasina has been close to India is sufficient for them to put out theories of  geopolitical intrigue.  Such an attitude insults the intelligence and independent will of the people of Bangladesh. 

Given the nature of the regime in India, the events in Bangladesh will also be viewed through Hindutva lenses.  The BJP leader, Suvendu Adhikari, who is also the leader of the opposition in the assembly in West Bengal, has declared that one crore Hindus from Bangladesh will be seeking to come to India.  He has also provocatively called for the use of the Citizenship Amendment Act to provide them with Indian citizenship. 

One of the reasons there is a strong anti-India feeling among the people and the political circles in Bangladesh is because of the constant depiction of Bangladeshis as infiltrators into India. Remember the infamous remark of home minister, Amit Shah, that infiltrators are “termites”.  The provocative and negative portrayal of the mass upheaval in Bangladesh through the media and Hindutva spokespersons will only fuel more anti-India sentiments in Bangladesh.

The best course for the Modi government is to refrain from any comment or action, which will be seen as interference in the internal affairs of Bangladesh.  It should patiently work with the interim government when it is put in place and be supportive of all steps that will be taken for peace, normalcy and the restoration of a democratic set-up with free and fair elections.

(August 7, 2024)