Hard Facts Stare at the Rulers
Sanjay Roy
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HARD facts are staring at the government creating discomforts to the party in power. It is sad to see on the eve of election how the prime minister of India feels uncomfortable, perturbed and baffled in facing these hard realities. He is desperate in the futile attempt of camouflaging these realities with highly loaded divisive agenda, misinterpreting facts and stooping too low in distorting opposition party’s views which is unbecoming of his position.
There is no doubt that India recorded high growth on an average of 5-6 per cent in the past four decades which peaked at 8 per cent in the recent past until the financial crisis of 2008 and growth is expected to be impressive in the near future as well. In 2022 the growth rate was 7.3 per cent which slid to 7.2 per cent in 2023. True that India currently is the fastest growing economy of the world which is a result of high growth of developing south on an average and stagnation in advanced economies of the global north. This encouraging picture however does not rule out the fact that India’s per capita income is lowest among the G20 countries and in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms India’s per capita gross national income is 8,210 US dollars which is 21,250 US dollars in case of China and 77,530 US dollars in case of the US. In spite of the high growth, India recorded the highest unemployment rate in the post-Independence period and turned out to be one of the most unequal countries in the world. Income and wealth inequality have reached unprecedented heights. Our female workforce participation rate is one of the lowest in the world which is roughly 25 per cent almost half of the world average that is 47.3 per cent. Unemployment among the youth has increased from 5.6 per cent in 2000 to 18 per cent in 2018 and 15.1 per cent in 2022. This is happening when India has a youth population as high as 27 per cent and the country is passing through the phase of demographic advantage.
FACTS SPEAK
It is alarming to see that the labour force participation rate among the youth declined from 54 per cent in 2000 to 42 per cent in 2022. This indicates that even though we are endowed with large number of young people currently that young population is increasingly discouraged from the labour force. The unemployment rate being very high, a large number of young people have lost hope of getting jobs and are not participating in the labour market. This is also reflected by the fact of rising share of self-employment in India’s workforce. It is important to note that currently 56 per cent of the working people in India are self-employed. Generally, in developing countries self-employment is considered to be the last resort, hence, in terms of quality of employment it is considered to be inferior to wage employment. It appears to be an employment with higher autonomy but in reality, it is much more repressive and exploitative, earnings are extremely vulnerable to fluctuations of market and the returns are often squeezed by big players through which these petty producers are forced to engage with the market. Therefore, the largest share of employment in India is self-employment and regular paid employment accounts 21.5 per cent and the casual labourers share 22.7 per cent of the work force.
The self-employed in India on an average earn a monthly income of 6,843 rupees at 2012 constant prices in 2022 while a regular wage worker on an average earns 10,925 rupees in a month. These figures suggest that self-employment is not only more insecure but also fetches lower return on an average than regular wage employment. However around 27 per cent of regular wage workers also earn less than 5,000 rupees a month in India. There has been a significant rise in casualisation and contractualisation of work force. Paradoxically the proportion of regular workers has increased from 14 per cent in 2000 to 21 per cent in 2019, also the share of workers employed in formal sector has increased from 12 per cent to 18 per cent but the share of informal workers in the total number of workers employed in formal and informal sectors continues to be more than 90 per cent. This indicates the ongoing process of informalising the formal sector workers. Currently more than one-third of the workers employed in the formal sector are actually informal. The proportion of workers employed on a regular basis but without any written contract has increased from 59.6 per cent in 2005 to 69.8 per cent in 2019 which declined to 62 per cent in 2022. Hence more than 60 per cent of the regular workers in India are employed without any contract. The increase in vulnerability of workers is also reflected by declining real wages of regular salaried and self-employed workers in the past ten years. Also 41 per cent of regular workers in agriculture and 39.3 per cent of those employed in construction do not receive even the minimum wages.
LIMITS OF FALSIFICATION
In the past ten years farmers were on the streets and could force the government to repeal the draconian farm laws which were designed to serve the corporates. But the government didn’t ensure minimum support price for agricultural produce. The workers’ real wages declined in the past ten years. Unemployment is at historic high levels and unemployment among the educated youth is the highest. In the formal sector, workers are increasingly employed on temporary basis and the proportion of regular salaried being employed without any written contract has increased in the past ten years. Women suffered the most during the pandemic and are increasingly pushed to unpaid work. Wage employment declined and is being replaced by self-employment in which average earnings are relatively less. Inequality in terms of income and wealth has touched new heights. But still people have to accept that Modi regime has done wonders for them! And this is marshalled by huge media campaign, use of money, muscle and institutional power, intimidating individuals, breaking opposition parties and shamefully using power to make opposition leaders invisible in media discussions. Stark asymmetry in access to reaching out to people influences election results. But hopefully there are limits to such falsification. India is in the midst of general elections and it is time to assert our citizenship so that we need not have to prove our Indian identity once again, so that the voice of the people does not get lost amidst the drumbeats and chest thumping, so that we can save our secular India and persons sitting at the highest office do not assume the role of a priest of a particular religion, so that we can save democracy and sovereignty earned through our freedom struggle and in the process of becoming a nation that always cherished pluralism.
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