FOR the first time in the history of independent Bangladesh, Jamaat-e-Islami believes that a genuine possibility of victory has opened up before it. Even if it does not win outright, it is set to emerge as a powerful opposition force.

On February 12, Bangladesh will go to the polls for a general election. It is the world’s eighth most populous (175.7 million) country and home to the fourth-largest Muslim population. This is the first election since August 2024, when an anti-government mass uprising removed the authoritarian Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina from power. The head of the interim government, Muhammad Yunus, banned Hasina’s party, the Awami League, as early as March last year. This has given rise to a new bipolar political contest in the country.

Bangladesh has seen two-party competition before, but earlier it was between the Awami League and the BNP (Bangladesh Nationalist Party). Post-Liberation War politics in Bangladesh has historically been shaped by two dominant currents: on one side, secular and non-communal politics; on the other, religion-based Bangladeshi nationalist politics. The Awami League led the first current, despite compromises. The BNP, founded by Ziaur Rahman, led the second. In the final analysis, however, both parties shared a similar class character. Their political conduct differed only marginally. Both supported imperialist interests; both represented the interests of the predatory capitalist class; and both carried records of corruption to varying degrees. The only notable difference lay in their stance on communalism. The BNP was directly aligned with religious fundamentalism, with Jamaat as its principal ally. The Awami League, while rhetorically opposing communalism, frequently compromised with it in practice.

Jamaat, which had opposed the Liberation War of 1971, remained a marginal force for decades. It never won more than 20 seats in parliament, nor did it ever secure more than 12 per cent of the popular vote. This time, however, the Awami League is absent. The country now faces a new bipolar contest: the BNP-led ten-party alliance versus Jamaat’s eleven-party alliance, which also includes the National Citizen Party (NCP) formed by student leaders of the mass uprising.

Public opinion surveys conducted in September-October last year by a US-based international research institute showed BNP support at 33 per cent, with Jamaat close behind at 29 per cent (The Daily Star, December 1, 2025). A joint survey by four Bangladeshi institutions conducted in November-December indicated an even tighter race: BNP at 34.7 per cent and Jamaat at 33.6 per cent (Prothom Alo, January 12, 2026).

If the hardline Islamist Jamaat manages to come to power, it would mark a dramatic shift in the politics of independent Bangladesh, with far-reaching consequences for the country’s constitutional framework. The rise of religious fundamentalism will not affect Bangladesh alone; its inevitable impact will be felt across the subcontinent, particularly in border states such as West Bengal, Assam, and Tripura. Assembly elections are approaching in West Bengal and Assam. Whoever wins in Bangladesh, anti-India rhetoric is likely to intensify. Communal forces on both sides of the border already feed off each other — and will do so even more. Mutual hatred and hostility will deepen. It is well known that Hindu communalism and Muslim fundamentalism thrive by mutually reinforcing one another.

Just as Golwalkar is to the RSS, so Maulana Abul Ala Maududi is to Jamaat. Golwalkar wrote We or Our Nationhood Defined in 1938; it was published in 1939. Two years later, Jamaat-e-Islami was founded. On 26 August 1941, its founding conference was held in Pathankot under Maududi’s leadership. The similarity between the political projects and historical roles of Golwalkar and Maududi is striking. Just as Hitler was a hero for Golwalkar, so was he for Maududi. Just as Golwalkar rejected modern values— liberty, equality, fraternity, secularism, democracy, and parliamentary institutions— as ‘alien concepts,’ Maududi and the philosophy of Muslim fundamentalism did the same.

Maududi, in a speech at Pathankot in May 1947, when Partition was imminent, urged Indians to organise their state and society on the basis of Hindu scriptures and laws, as they would organise Pakistan based on the laws laid down by ‘Allah’. He said: ‘If a Hindu government based on Hindu law came to India and the law of Manu became the law of land as a result of which Muslims were treated untouchables and were not given any share in the government, they did not even get the citizenship rights, I would have no objection’ (Quoted in Z A Nizami, 1975, p. 11: What Is Hindu Rashtra? Sitaram Yechury, Frontline, July 5, 2017).

Jamaat opposed Bangladesh’s Liberation War and supported Pakistan. It even created armed formations such as Al-Badr, which murdered lakhs of freedom fighters, artists, and intellectuals. According to official estimates, 200,000 to 400,000 women were raped by the Pakistani military and the supporting Bihari and Bengali Razakar and al-Badr militias (The Indian Express, Dec 19, 2016). In the country’s 55-year history, Jamaat has been banned multiple times. After the High Court cancelled its registration as a political party, Jamaat was unable to contest elections from 2013 onwards. Just four days before her removal, the Hasina government banned all Jamaat activities. Earlier, under her rule, several top Jamaat leaders were executed or imprisoned.

The interim government lifted the ban on Jamaat immediately after taking office and released its imprisoned leaders. Jamaat quickly became active again. Exploiting the political vacuum created by the ban on the Awami League, it rapidly positioned itself as the BNP’s principal rival. Jamaat’s student wing, Islami Chhatra Shibir, achieved major victories in student union elections at Dhaka University, Jahangirnagar University, Chittagong University, Rajshahi University, and most recently Jagannath University.

Jamaat leaders claim the support of 20 million people, including around 250,000 whole timers, known within the party as Rukon (pillars). Jamaat advocates governance based on Islamic Sharia law. It opposes women’s emancipation and even argues for reducing women’s working hours so they can fulfil their ‘duties’ of child-rearing. In a now-deleted X-post, Jamaat chief Shafiqur Rahman claimed that ‘when women are pushed out of the home in the name of modernity, they are exposed to exploitation, moral decay, and insecurity,’ describing this as ‘another form of prostitution’. He also claimed, ‘we do not think women should come in the politics. In Jamaat, it is impossible.’

There exists a remarkable research study on the political economy of Islamic fundamentalism in Bangladesh by economist and Professor Abul Barkat of Dhaka University, a former chairman of the state-owned Janata Bank, who is currently in jail. He has long researched the political economy of terrorism in Bangladesh. Jamaat’s network extends far beyond Qawmi madrasas. It owns banks, hospitals, pharmaceutical factories, newspapers, television channels, shopping malls, and transport businesses— buses, trucks, launches, steamers, ships, and auto-rickshaws— as well as a booming real-estate trade. These enterprises generate several thousand crore taka annually. Their sources of income are not limited to Bangladesh; foreign funding, especially from Saudi Arabia, also plays a major role. This vast financial power is used to strengthen the organisation.

It is true that Islamic fundamentalism has existed in Bangladesh before, but its influence has now grown significantly. Society itself has become more Islam-oriented. Yet it is also true that the majority of Bangladeshis are not ready to hand over the state to conservative Islamic leadership just yet. Most Bangladeshis may be religious, but they are not fanatical. In this context, Awami League supporters could play a crucial role. Although Hasina has called on her supporters to boycott the election, political analysts are sceptical about the impact of this call. Many believe it will affect urban areas more than rural ones.

The election also includes the seven-party Left Democratic Alliance led by the Communist Party of Bangladesh (CPB). The Workers Party of Bangladesh has called for a boycott.

So far, Jamaat’s highest vote share was 12.2 per cent in 1991, when it won 18 seats in the 300-member parliament. Its support steadily declined thereafter, reaching 4.6 per cent and just two seats in 2008. Jamaat could not contest the elections of 2014, 2018, and 2024. Whether it has been able to expand its support base from 4.6 per cent to its current claimed levels can only be determined by the people’s verdict. According to political analysts, the BNP is likely to win. If there is manipulation or rigging, Jamaat could come to power. In the event of a hung parliament, a national unity government may emerge.

Washington is closely watching developments. The United States is now seeking to deepen ties with Jamaat, once a banned organisation. The Washington Post (22 January 2026) made this claim after publishing a leaked audio recording of conversations between US diplomats in Bangladesh and local journalists. This is unsurprising. For years, the US spoke in Jamaat’s favour discreetly; now it does so openly. To Washington, Jamaat is a ‘moderate’ Islamic party— a softer, more modern form of fundamentalism that it wants to incorporate as an ‘inclusive’ partner in democracy. The US has never regarded Jamaat as a war-criminal organisation. If Jamaat were a war-criminal party, why would the United States be exempt? Former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton reportedly phoned Sheikh Hasina to lobby for the commutation of death sentences of convicted war criminals. When Hasina refused, Clinton was allegedly heard issuing threats.

What Bangladesh urgently needs is a neutral, free, fair, and peaceful election— followed by a government capable of breaking the cycle of chaos, restoring public confidence, re-establishing law and order, and keeping fundamentalist forces at bay. The responsibility for revitalising democratic practice and rebuilding the centre of Bangladeshi politics rests largely with Tarique Rahman and his party, the BNP. Whether he can shoulder this responsibility will determine Bangladesh’s future.