Whither West Asia?
THE events of the last fortnight have been dramatic – some might even call them cataclysmic.
The sequence began with Israel’s surprise attacks on Iranian targets, particularly the nuclear enrichment and production sites at Natanz and Isfahan. The third and most crucial site, Fordow, remained untouched. Fordow lies deep within a mountain – approximately 80 meters underground – making it impenetrable to conventional weapons. It is here that experts began suggesting that only the US military’s heavy-duty bunker-buster bombs could penetrate such depth. While the accuracy of this claim remains unverified, the subtext and the implicit suggestion was that the time had come for the US to intervene directly.
The backdrop for the campaign to draw the US into the conflict was, quite evidently, what Netanyahu and Israel were hoping for. It was becoming increasingly clear that despite Netanyahu’s bravado and the initial show of military strength, Iran’s capabilities could not be neutralised. On the contrary, Iran mounted a strong resistance and executed counterattacks. From the outset, it became evident that Israel’s much-vaunted air defence system, including the emblematic Iron Dome, was unable to stop Iran’s hypersonic missiles. Defence analysts noted Iran’s clever use of decoy drones and conventional missiles to mask the hypersonics. These tactics not only bypassed Israeli defences but successfully struck targets in Tel Aviv and Haifa.
It was clear that Israel was also suffering set-backs. Because of the complete opacity of Israel on the losses, it would be difficult to ascertain the extent of these reverses. But what became clear is that the long-held myth of Israel’s invincibility in air defence had been shattered. For Israel, this busting of the myth was the irreparable loss. Therefore, Netanyahu’s only chance of salvaging the ground in his aggressive posturing was US.
In the initial phase, Israel justified its campaign by accusing Iran of violating its safeguard commitments under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Such allegations are not new – Israel has been levelling them for over two decades. However, despite regular inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), these claims have never been substantiated.
History offers a grim parallel. Similar unverified accusations about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq led to a catastrophic war and the eventual fall of Saddam Hussein, only for the world to later acknowledge that no such weapons existed. What unfolded was a tragedy of unimaginable proportions – built on false premises.
Undeterred, Israel continues its military campaign. Recently, seizing upon a tangential remark by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that Iran was "not cooperating sufficiently," the entire West, led by the United States, has reignited the cacophony that Iran must not be allowed to possess a nuclear bomb. It is important to understand that this campaign against Iran is nothing more than a smokescreen – a diversion to deflect global attention from Israel’s own nuclear programme and its continued movement towards weaponisation. The US and Israel want to secure Israel’s nuclear monopoly in West Asia.
As we have previously highlighted, Israel’s nuclear programme operates entirely outside the framework of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and therefore escapes any international inspections or scrutiny. By contrast, Iran does not possess nuclear weapons, nor does it have an active weaponisation programme. This is not just Iran’s own assertion; it has been confirmed by IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi and Tulsi Gabbard, the Director of US National Intelligence.
The campaign against Iran, then, is not truly about NPT violations. It is, at its core, a geopolitical strategy – a calculated move to secure strategic hegemony over the energy-rich region of West Asia. Since the fall of the US-backed Shah regime, Iran has remained the most consistent obstacle to the agenda of the US-Israel axis in the region.
Meanwhile, the true face of Zionism is becoming increasingly clear to the world. The primary objective of the Zionist Israeli state is the ethnic cleansing of Palestinian territories. This genocidal project has now claimed over 56,000 lives, the majority of them women and children. Gaza is now on the brink of an unprecedented famine, as Israel weaponises food aid, controlled by the Israeli military.
Although some Western countries have made mild gestures of disapproval – acknowledging that this genocide violates not only the UN Charter but every standard of international law – the hypocrisy remains stark. The G7 statement still absurdly upheld Israel’s right to self-defence, even as its actions in Gaza and beyond have become indefensible, even for the most die-hard apologists of Zionism.
Against this backdrop, the US under Donald Trump, stepped in to escalate the situation. As we have noted, Israel was failing to meet its military objectives against Iran, despite the heavy bombardments. A dramatic step was initiated and thus came Trump’s early morning announcement that bunker busters had indeed been dropped.
However, even now, the US establishment has not been able to confirm whether Iran’s nuclear infrastructure has been completely destroyed. In fact, the IAEA, in its testimony before the UN Security Council, stated that there is no evidence yet of irreparable damage to Iran’s refining facilities at Fordow. Crucially, no radiation signature has been detected that would typically follow such a strike.
But Israel cannot possibly sustain and the US also realises that given the growing public opinion the world over, and even within US (as a recent Reuters survey reveals) which is reflected in the mumblings of leaders across political spectrum, President Trump had to do something which could be peddled as a great initiative for peace; thus, the ceasefire announcement.
The ceasefire appears to be holding, though it has been intermittently punctured by attacks and counterattacks. With growing doubts about Israel’s military capability, forces that have historically been at the receiving end of Israeli aggression – Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Iran itself – have launched retaliatory actions. They are determined to ensure that Israel does not violate the ceasefire with impunity.
However, in the absence of any basic ground or binding terms underpinning the ceasefire, or the much-hyped agreement between Iran and Israel announced by Trump, the underlying tensions continue to simmer beneath the surface. As a result, the region remains mired in uncertainty.
In these world-shaking events, Narendra Modi has cut a particularly sorry figure. It is difficult to even ascertain where India stands in this all-consuming conflict. The Indian government has not once firmly condemned Israel’s genocide in Gaza, nor has it raised its voice against the US and Israel’s blatant violations of the UN Charter and other international laws.
This silence is especially pathetic given India’s historical legacy. Once a leading voice in the Non-Aligned Movement, a nation that proudly stood against colonialism and imperialism, and one that zealously advocated for the upholding of the UN Charter, India under Modi has lapsed into complete silence and complicity. Even after the flagrant attacks on Iran, Modi’s only gesture was to call the Iranian President and appeal for de-escalation – an act so empty and performative that it borders on farcical.
In this context, the task before us is clear: we must rally the Indian people, who have always upheld the values of peace, democracy, and harmony. Let peace become the watchword that drowns the actions of warmongers and aggressors.
Just as the Indian Constitution has become our signpost in resisting attacks on democracy and secularism, let the UN Charter become the statement for restoring peace and harmony world-wide.
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