May 04, 2025
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After Pahalgam: What Next?

THE terrorist outrage in Pahalgam, which left 26 tourists dead, has united the whole country in condemnation and grief.  25 families spread across India and one family in Nepal saw a beloved family member being murdered in cold blood.  By choosing to kill people after ascertaining their religion, the terrorists hoped to create a communal divide and fuel communal tensions in the country.  But the opposite has happened.  There has been a spontaneous outpouring of anger and condemnation by all sections of society and people, irrespective of caste and creed, have spoken with one voice.  At the political level, all political parties have expressed their resolve to unitedly face this dastardly attack. 

More significant has been the response of the people of Kashmir, who have without any reservation, unitedly condemned and protested this mass murder.  The hartals and shut downs in all towns of J&K and the unanimous resolution adopted by the special session of the J&K assembly testifies to this big shift in popular sentiments and political expression.

The question that faces the government and the country is how to respond to this heinous attack? The first step is to bring those guilty of this crime to account.  Security forces have launched an intensive operation to track down and eliminate the terrorist squad whose members have been identified.  This operation must be successfully concluded. But the vital issue remains – what more should be done to tackle the perennial terrorist threat and how to deal with the Pakistani military and security apparatus, which harbors the terrorist groups and sustains them. There are shrill and insistent cries in the electronic media for a massive military retaliation against Pakistan. This had happened at the time of the Pulwama attack and earlier instance in Uri and Pathankot too.  Now it is said that India must raise its military offensive to a level which will snuff out the “terrorist infrastructure” in Pakistan and deter future attacks.  In the heat of emotion and the steady chorus for revenge, this might seem to be the only option for a self-respecting nation.  But does it serve the declared aim of “crushing terrorism”?

The priority should be to plug the loopholes in the security system in J&K.  The Pahalgam attack was the result of a gross security lapse.  The situation on the ground in Kashmir is conducive to mobilising the people to counter terrorist violence. The long years of militarising the administration and the general repression have been serious obstacles to countering extremism and terrorist violence. The steps to lessen the alienation of the people must be pursued and nothing should be done to detract from this. The demolition of the ten houses of those who had joined the terrorist groups is an example of how such collective punishment can alienate people. All the major parties in the Valley have protested these demolitions. The political participation of the people of J&K by restoring statehood and the protection of their democratic rights will provide the grounds for the isolation of terrorist elements.

The issue of cross-border terrorism has to be tackled by a range of measures – political, diplomatic, economic and heightened security.  Some steps have been taken immediately by the government such as the scaling down of the diplomatic missions, cancellation of visas and “pausing” of the Indus Waters Treaty. The last mentioned cannot be put into effect without serious legal and diplomatic ramifications. 

The ongoing diplomatic campaign to rally support for India’s stand and to isolate Pakistan should continue. This requires collecting all the evidence of the terrorist links to Pakistan in the Pahalgam massacre. India should build its case at the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), so that steps are taken to curb Pakistan’s support to terrorist groups. It may be recalled that Pakistan was put on the “grey list” from 2012 to 2022 for allowing financing of terrorist groups. This compelled Pakistan to take some limited action against Lashkar leaders like Hafiz Saeed.  Other targeted economic measures may also be considered.

As for a military response, it is reported that after the meeting of the prime minister with all the chiefs of the armed forces on April 29, the prime minister has given a free hand to the armed forces to decide “the mode, target and timing of the response”.  The nature of military action, however, has to be decided by the political leadership. There has to be clarity about whether any military action will serve the strategic goal of eliminating terrorism.  The experience of the surgical strikes of 2016 and the Balakot airstrike of 2019 show that they were not effective in striking at the terrorist groups, though they burnished the Modi government’s claim of swift retaliation. Further, these strikes have not deterred subsequent terrorist violence. 

Now there is talk of a bigger action than such strikes.  Whether such military action will be able to target and eliminate the terrorist groups is doubtful.  It is difficult to suppress non-state actors with such actions especially when they have the support of the Pakistani ISI and military establishment. The consequences of military action leading to retaliation and escalating into a cycle of armed hostilities between the two countries should be taken into account.  A military conflict with Pakistan can only help to consolidate the position of the Pakistani military within the country, where at present it is facing growing unpopularity. It will also harden the resolve of the Pakistani security establishment to continue with its “proxy” war against India.  All this will have to be taken into account by the government when exercising the military option.

At a time when the whole country has unitedly come out against the dastardly terrorist attack in Pahalgam, there are some disturbing trends.  There is a vicious hate campaign in the social media against Muslims. Kashmiri students and traders have been threatened and asked to leave in some states. There has been the shocking incident of a  Muslim youth working in a restaurant selling biriyani in Agra being shot dead and the claim being put out on social media that it was done by gaurakshaks to avenge Pahalgam. Any tolerance of such hate campaign can only divide society and help serve the aims of the terrorists.  The concerned authorities must take firm action against those who are indulging in such disruptive activities. There should be no leniency shown to those who try to divert and disrupt the people’s unity that has been forged.   

The fight against terrorist violence and its hateful ideology has to be based not on majority communalism, but on people’s unity and secular values. It is this which will take India forward in defeating the machinations of the terrorist elements and their handlers. 

(April 30, 2025)