THERE has been a lot of heat generated, but very little light shed, by media reports in India, and to a lesser extent abroad, about the seemingly imminent sale by the US to India of the frontline fifth generation F35 multi-role fighter aircraft. The reports have claimed that a possible deal was announced during the meeting of Prime Minister Modi with President Trump during the former’s recent visit to the US.

The trick lay in showing that the leaders of both the US and India had gotten at least some of what they wanted out of this much hyped visit. President Trump could boast of getting commitments from India to increase imports from the US to redress the current trade imbalance, buy more US energy and, most important, buy more military hardware, besides investments by Indian companies in the US. Perhaps commentators on other subjects could say whether India actually made any major gains, although not many people on either side may care much about higher imports by India of alfalfa hay and duck meat!

On the other hand, the joint statement was loaded with paragraphs dealing with all manner of military hardware acquisitions by India, and a small number of collaborative ventures involving advanced military and strategic technologies. Both sides could claim these as gains, the US commercially as well as through closer ties with a major ally, and India in the form of access to advanced technologies. However, what grabbed headlines was one brief mention, almost in passing, of “fifth generation fighters.” A close examination shows there was a lot of smoke and mirrors involved in all this.

MILITARY

SALES          

The US-India Joint Statement contains no new defence acquisitions by India. It however deceptively enumerates a series of past acquisitions, all predating the Trump presidency by many years! Even the deals to acquire armed RQ9B Predator drones, Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stryker Infantry Combat Vehicles, some parts of which may actually be inked in the near future, were initiated much earlier. It must be noted that the joint statement does NOT mention either the much delayed deliveries of the GE F-404 engines for the indigenous Tejas Mk1 and Mk1A fighters which is causing serious delays in deliveries of the urgently needed fighter aircraft by Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) to the IAF. The statement also does NOT speak of any further progress in the deal for license production in India, some technology transfer, of the GE-414 engines for the Tejas Mk2. This silence does nothing to quieten the growing whispers in defence and strategic circles in India wondering whether these delays may be deliberately designed to underline India’s dependence on the US.

F-35 FIGHTERS

The joint statement does not speak of any offer or deal for F35 fighters, only of “a review of (US) policy on releasing fifth generation fighters… to India.” President Trump spoke about it in the joint press conference again only as “paving the way “for a future deal.

For the uninitiated, the Lockheed Martin F35 Lightning II is a frontline fifth generation stealth fighter making it difficult to detect by anti-aircraft systems. The 5G tag is also associated with super-cruise capability, that is being able to fly at high speeds for prolonged periods, advanced avionics, radar, and network-centric software-driven control and combat systems.  The F35 was developed as part of the joint Strike Fighter programme involving NATO and all US allies who contributed towards development costs and placed advance orders. As a result, more than 1200 F35s are currently in operation by European allies, Israel, Japan, Australia and so on. This economy of scale has been instrumental in reducing the sale price of the F35 to about USD 80-90 million per unit, compared to the USD 100-110 million for the Rafales which India has acquired.

The US imposes stringent restrictions on export of F35s given its advanced technologies and features, and it is rarely if ever offered to any but its closest allies. Turkiye was kicked out of the F35 programme because it had acquired the Russian S400 anti-aircraft system presumed to compromise the F35’s secrets. Turkiye reacted angrily at “US double standards” in offering the F35 to India also with an S400 deal with Russia.

UNDESIRABLE

FOR INDIA

The relatively lower price for the F35 is very misleading.  The F35 has much higher operation and maintenance costs. Each future upgrade will require major software upgrades as well. So the lifetime costs of F35s would be easily 50-70 per cent higher than for the Rafale.

Even more problematic for India, the F35 just does not fit easily into India’s complex air force fleet. After a long period of operating a virtual menagerie of fighter aircraft for different roles, India is finally heading towards a leaner mix of indigenous Tejas, SU-30 MkI, a small number of Rafales and later the indigenous AMCA or Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft. India is already adding an unnecessary complication to its fleet due to its own bungled Rafale procurement and the highly delayed acquisition of another 110 multi-role aircraft. In an era of increasingly sophisticated anti-aircraft systems, the expensive F35 can also become a risky burden.

Above all, there is the danger that comes with the high level of dependence on the US that comes with the F35. The source code of the F35 is heavily protected by the US which it does not share with even its closest allies, with the exception of Israel which has been enabled to integrate Israeli weapons with the F35. Even small modifications or upgrades will require software upgrades which only US will do. The IAF is therefore reportedly averse to such an acquisition.  

At the end of the day, all the noise about the F35 is just so much glitter flung in the air only disguising the emptiness behind.