THE inaugural speech of Donald Trump and the flurry of executive orders issued by him on the first day as president, show that Trump does what he said he will do.  In claiming to make America great again, Trump has threatened to take over the Panama Canal, the control of which had been handed to Panama by a treaty in 1977.  He has renamed the `Gulf of Mexico’ as the `Gulf of America’ and promised more imperial steps to expand American territory as no US President has done in recent history.  Trump has ordered an emergency in the southern borders with Mexico and deployed the army to check immigrants crossing the border.  Other anti-immigrant measures, including annulling the right of citizenship of persons by birth in the country, are bound to heighten xenophobia and whet the appetite of the far-right. 

Another set of executive orders have involved the US withdrawing from the Paris climate treaty and dismantling environmental protection measures within the country.  The oil lobby is poised to indiscriminately exploit this freedom from regulation.

A striking feature of the second Trump Presidency that was seen graphically in the swearing-in ceremony is the fawning support of the tech-billionaires and the super-rich for Trump.  The key role played by Elon Musk, the richest man in the world, and other billionaires in the administration makes the regime look like a plutocracy.  There are well-founded fears that social security benefits and welfare measures will be the victims of the drive to downsize the federal government and social expenditure.  Conversely, this is an administration, which will give big business and corporate interests a free run.

At the level of international relations, though the Trump Presidency will prove disruptive on multilateralism, trade tariffs and climate change measures, basically there will be a continuity in pursuing America’s imperialist interests.  After all, the Biden administration became notorious for its redux neo-conservative foreign policy.  The Biden years saw the United States stoking and financing Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza and ensuring that Russia-Ukraine conflict becomes a full-fledged war with unstinted military and financial support to Ukraine. Biden also continued on the path of increasing confrontation with China and building alliances in the Asia-Pacific region. 

Given the composition of the Trump administration, one can expect a more aggressive approach in the Latin America with Cuba and Venezuela being in the sights for increased interventions. 

The Modi government is anxiously watching what steps Trump will take regarding tariffs on Indian goods exports to the US and a restrictive visa policy. If Trump carries out his threat to deport undocumented migrants, we have to expect around 20,000 Indians who have already been identified or processed as entering the United States illegally, being sent back to India. 

More importantly, the Modi government is desperate to prove to Trump that it is a good and reliable ally.  The External Affairs Minister, S Jaishankar, has had two stints in Washington in the last few weeks. On his second trip to attend the inauguration, he along with three other foreign ministers of the Quad countries, including the new US Secretary of State, had a meeting.  But the photo up with Trump was bagged by Mukesh and Nita Ambani, who attended the pre-inaugural dinner.  The plutocrats get precedence over ministers in Washington now.

Instead of depending on Trump’s predilections and being wrong-footed, it would be better for the Modi government to rework its strategy to restore strategic autonomy and strengthen the Indian economy, which is suffering a serious slowdown.  

(January 22, 2025)