THE battle for the Maharashtra Vidhan Sabha is now in full swing. The one-day voting will be on November 20, 2024, and the counting for the Maharashtra and Jharkhand State Assembly elections as well as the several by-elections across the country will be on November 23.

We can start by looking at the results of the Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra six months ago. Compared to a one-sided election in 2019 in which the BJP-NDA won 42 of the 48 Lok Sabha seats, the UPA won only five, and the AIMIM won one, the 2024 elections saw a sea change. Now it was the MVA-INDIA bloc that won 31 seats, and the BJP-NDA won only 17. 

The number of seats won and the votes secured by each party in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra is as follows: MVA-INDIA – Congress – 13/17 seats (16.9 per cent), Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray) – 9/21 seats (16.7 per cent), NCP (Sharad Pawar) – 8/10 seats (10.3 per cent). NDA – BJP – 9/28 seats (26.1 per cent), Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde) – 7/15 seats (13 per cent), NCP (Ajit Pawar) – 1/4 seats (3.6 per cent), Rashtriya Samaj Party – 0/1 seat (0.8 per cent).

While this was certainly a welcome development, the difference between the voting percentage of the two fronts was razor-thin. For MVA-INDIA it was 44 per cent, and for NDA it was 43.6 per cent. These figures reveal the uncomfortably close nature of that contest.

CORRUPT AND IMMORAL STATE GOVERNMENT

The main reasons for the NDA setback and the MVA victory in the Lok Sabha elections of 2024 which we had outlined then still hold, and to them have been added some others.

First, the people are still sick of the BJP and its corrupt and immoral acts in the state in the last two years, which resulted in the splits in the SS in June 2022, and then in the NCP in June 2023, and then again nibbling at some of the Congress leaders. Over 80 MLAs out of the 100-odd MLAs of the SS and the NCP together were induced to support the BJP by using a callous combination of threats and blandishments. It was through such dirty conspiracies that the discredited Shinde-Fadnavis-Ajit Pawar state government was brought into existence. The corrupt and unprincipled splintering of the SS and NCP led to a big sympathy wave for their original leaders and activists. The resistance of the people against this political chicanery strengthened the unity of the MVA, which was further buttressed by the formation of the INDIA bloc at the national level. This factor still continues, and is in fact aggravated, because this is a state assembly election.

The corruption of the state government was dramatically exposed on August 26, 2024, when a large 35-foot statue of Chhatrapati Shivaji at Malwan in Sindhudurg district of the Konkan region, just collapsed. It was inaugurated only nine months earlier on December 4, 2023 by prime minister Narendra Modi himself. The cost of the statue was Rs 2.36 crore. The BJP-NDA state government was heavily criticised across the board for this collapse, and for the corruption therein, especially since Shivaji remains a revered figure across Maharashtra.      

PEOPLE IN SERIOUS

ECONOMIC DISTRESS

The second factor is clearly economic distress. The growing crisis in unemployment, inflation, agrarian distress, and other sectors, and also the growing struggles on these issues in the state over the last few years, have played a major part in ensuring the alienation of the people from the BJP-NDA. In the agrarian sector, the falling prices of soyabean, cotton, onions, sugarcane, and milk, have again become a major issue. The soyabean and cotton harvesting season is now on in Maharashtra. These two crops are widely grown in the Vidarbha and Marathwada regions, and also elsewhere. The prices that the farmers are getting for both are nearly a thousand rupees less than the declared MSP per quintal. Since this does not cover even the cost of production, farmers are mad with the BJP-led government both at the centre and in the state. Farmer suicides in Maharashtra unfortunately top the country, as per the official NCRB data. During the last three years, the shocking number of farm suicides in the state was as follows: 2021 – 2,743; 2022 – 2,942; 2023 – 2,851.  

Droughts, unseasonal rains, and hailstorms keep recurring, for which no relief in the form of crop insurance is forthcoming. The issue of economic distress has repercussions in all the regions of the state. As per the Economic Survey, the state’s economic growth fell from 6.1 per cent in 2014-19 to 4.5 per cent in 2019-24. The state debt amounts to Rs 7.11 lakh crore. At this rate, by 2025 the debt will rise faster than the growth rate. The average growth rate in the industrial sector has fallen from 5.5 per cent in 2014-19 to 1.3 per cent in 2019-24. The average manufacturing growth rate from 2019-24 has been negative at minus 1 per cent.

The Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council earlier this month brought out a report of the economic performance of the states. It says that the share of Maharashtra in the national income fell from 15.2 per cent in 2010-11 to 13.3 per cent in 2023-24. Maharashtra has now slid down to the sixth place in the country in per capita income. The Jan Arogya Abhiyan recently released a health report card giving the state government a low score of 23 out of 100. The per capita health expenditure of the state is reportedly Rs 1,979, which is below the national average of Rs 2,342 and places the state sixth from bottom in the country. These highly disturbing facts and figures can be multiplied manifold. The MVA election campaign is concentrating on these burning issues of the people and has tried to put forth alternatives in its election manifesto released last week.

‘LADLI BEHANA’ SCHEME

Shocked by its setback in the Lok Sabha elections, and in its desperation to counter the economic distress of the people, the BJP-NDA state government on June 28, 2024 unveiled a new scheme called ‘Ladki Bahin’ (dear Sister in English, ‘Ladli Behana’ in Hindi). This is on the lines of a similar scheme started by the BJP state government just before the assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh. Rs 1,500 per month is being given to women between the age of 21 and 65, having an income of less than Rs 2.50 lakh per year. So far, five months’ amount of Rs 7,500 has been distributed to 2.40 crore women, as per the state government’s claims. This is the important new factor after the Lok Sabha elections. How much it impacts the voting will be seen in the results.

However, this is being countered by the MVA by rightly pointing to the increased atrocities on women and girls in Maharashtra, of which the Badlapur case in Thane district is a shocking example. It involved sexual harassment of two school girls in an RSS-run school. This led to a public uproar, and to prevent the truth from coming out and to thus protect the RSS, the accused was summarily killed by the police in a so-called ‘encounter’.

BJP’S TRUMP CARD: COMMUNAL POLARISATION

In this Vidhan Sabha election the BJP-NDA, while using the ‘Ladli Behana’ card, is banking solely on communal polarisation. A few weeks ago, communal riots were engineered in Kolhapur district and communal tensions were incited in many other districts. As is only to be expected, Narendra Modi and Yogi Adityanath have begun stirring up the communal cauldron with their respective slogans, ‘Ek Hain To Safe Hain’ (If we are united, we will be safe) and ‘batenge tho katenge’ (If we are divided, we will get cut down). Yogi in his speeches in Maharashtra has openly declared that after the Ayodhya temple, it is now the turn of Kashi and Mathura. The BJP state election manifesto that was released last week prominently calls for a ‘stringent anti-conversion law that will ensure zero religious conversions’.    

Another factor is that of caste, and reservations. This is a direct result of the agrarian crisis and burgeoning unemployment. The Maratha reservations demand is a burning one. In the Marathwada region, where the Maratha quota stir was the most intense, the BJP could not win even a single of the eight MP seats in the region. In other regions also it hit the BJP. This time, the leader of the Maratha quota struggle, Manoj Jarange Patil had earlier called for putting up Maratha candidates in several seats for the Vidhan Sabha polls. But at the last minute he asked all of them to withdraw. It is widely believed that this step will help the MVA.

The BJP has for long been inciting the sizable Dhangar caste (included in Maharashtra as a Nomadic Tribe) to demand reservation in the ST (Tribal) category. But this is being stoutly opposed by tribals. Both Dhangars and Adivasis are, of course, being subjected to communal propaganda. But the massive support of Muslims, other minorities, and large sections of Dalits to the MVA, which was seen in the Lok Sabha polls, is likely to continue this time as well. 

People themselves are partly isolating the traditional spoilers like the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) led by Prakash Ambedkar, and the AIMIM led by Asaduddin Owaissi. There is yet another front which has recently been cobbled together for the Vidhan Sabha elections by farmer leaders like Raju Shetty, Bachhu Kadu, and others. None of these is likely to have any significant impact. However, they will divide the secular vote to some extent.  

Another factor which is having an impact on the people is the BJP central government’s attack on Maharashtrian identity and pride. In the past few years, a large number of industries and projects which had been earmarked for Maharashtra have been arbitrarily shifted to Gujarat by the Modi-Shah regime. This is a source of great heartburn, because it adversely affects employment and development. This issue will have big repercussions throughout the state.   

The last factor that continues to be focused is, of course, the crucial issue of the defence of democracy, secularism, federalism, and the Constitution. It influenced vast sections of the patriotic people in the state and the country in the Lok Sabha polls. The MVA election campaign is continuing its campaign on this issue.

CPI(M) ELECTION CAMPAIGN

The three bigger parties in the MVA, unfortunately, have not shown the inclusiveness that they should have done as regards the Left and other parties. Only two seats each have been left for the CPI(M) and the Samajwadi Party (SP), and only one seat each has been left for the CPI and the Peasants and Workers Party (PWP). Hence some friendly contests have become inevitable. Rebels have become a headache for both the BJP-NDA and the MVA in some places.    

The CPI(M) is contesting three Vidhan Sabha seats in this election. Two seats – the sitting seat of Dahanu (ST) in Palghar district and the Kalwan (ST) seat in Nashik district – are being contested as an integral part of the MVA bloc. The third seat, Solapur city central is being fought outside the MVA bloc, against the BJP and the Congress. The CPI(M) candidates in these three seats are Vinod Nikole, J P Gavit, and Narasayya Adam respectively.

The election campaign is proceeding enthusiastically in all the three seats, with a series of public meetings, campaign literature distribution, and other organisational work. Party leaders and members are actively taking part in the campaign in all the three seats, and MVA leaders are taking part in the campaign in the first two seats. In all other seats, the Party is sincerely working to ensure the victory of the MVA and the Left candidates.  

CPI(M) Polit Bureau member Brinda Karat addressed good public meetings for two days in the Dahanu (ST) constituency. CPI(M) Polit Bureau member Mohammad Salim will address public meetings for two days in the Solapur city central constituency. CPI(M) Polit Bureau member Ashok Dhawale and Central Committee member and state secretary Uday Narkar are campaigning in all three constituencies. Central Committee member Mariam Dhawale is campaigning in Dahanu (ST) and Solapur city central.

Ten new and younger comrades have been selected and they have recorded their telecasts and broadcasts on Doordarshan and Akashwani on behalf of the CPI(M). A group of SFI-DYFI activists are performing an effective street play to assist the election drive, and another team of SFI activists is helping in the social media field to propagate the Left campaign.