CERTAINLY, the results of Haryana assembly elections have been unexpected. Political workers, experts, election analysts, opinion polls, exit poll agencies etc all predicted that there is widespread public discontent (anti-incumbency) against the BJP which has been in power for 10 years  and it is going to lose the elections. On the other hand, Congress, being the main opposition party, is in a position of advantage and is going to win the elections with a huge majority.

All these predictions were not baseless but had a solid basis. The results of the Lok Sabha elections held just four months ago proved that there is an anti-BJP atmosphere in the state. In 2024 Lok Sabha election, compared to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP's vote percentage had declined by more than 12 per cent and the Congress's vote percentage had increased by more than 15 per cent, whereas it contested only 9 out of 10 seats in the state. AAP party contested the remaining one seat.  Also, it is a well-known fact that despite the unprecedented victory of BJP in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, BJP failed to secure majority independently in the assembly elections held just five months later. So in the 2019 assembly elections itself, people of the state had given a mandate to defeat the BJP. It is a different matter that JJP, which won 10 seats in the name of opposing BJP, betrayed the people and became a partner in a coalition government with the BJP.

In this background and in the last five years, due to the anti-people actions of the BJP-led state government, public discontent increased more instead of decreasing and it was also expressed openly. In the last five years, there was hardly any section of the public in the state which has not continuously taken to the streets against the BJP-JJP state government and which didn't bear the repression of this government. It is also worth mentioning here that six months before the assembly elections, BJP had replaced Manohar Lal Khattar, who was the chief minister for nine and a half years, with Nayab Saini as the new chief minister. This itself proves that there was an anti-incumbency against the BJP government.

Despite all this, the results that have come are completely different and unexpected. How did this happen? What were the reasons? There have been reactions from various parties in this regard. It is important to identify the reality by examining all these.

The Congress party has alleged tampering of EVM machines. In this regard, the Congress party has lodged a complaint with the Election Commission. According to the Congress party, it has provided concrete evidence to the Election Commission. It says that wherever the battery of the EVM was found to be charged more than 90 per cent and up to 99 per cent, Congress candidates have lost there and where the battery was normally charged up to 60-70 per cent, their candidates have won there. If this is true, then it is definitely the responsibility of the Election Commission that how can the battery of a machine remain charged up to 99 per cent after going through all the election processes? And if it actually remained charged, then what is the explanation for this? What is wrong? Only the Election Commission can answer this and it must definitely give an explanation.  Despite this, to consider this factor alone as the deciding factor behind the unexpected election results would amount to ignoring the need to check the complete reality.

In this context, it is worth mentioning an article published in Lok Lahar and People’s Democracy after the Lok Sabha elections. What was written in the concluding paragraph of the article published under the title “What do the results of Lok Sabha elections in Haryana say?” is as follows: “......Despite the setback received by the BJP, it would be suicidal to underestimate it. Assembly elections are due in October 2024. Despite the solid possibility of BJP's defeat, any kind of complacency would be fatal...BJP-RSS has strengthened its organisational, political and ideological base by taking advantage of governance in the last 10 years.

“Despite the public being somewhat aware of their communal and casteist politics, one cannot ignore the fact that urban voters, backward classes and the so-called upper caste communities still have a preference for the BJP.

“In such a situation, it is important for secular forces to remain united and give priority to the task of defeating the BJP in the upcoming assembly elections."

Before discussing other factors, it is important to underline that although the BJP has won a majority by winning 48 seats, the public mandate is not in favour of the BJP. Most of the ministers of the BJP government have lost the elections. The BJP has received 39.94 per cent votes, that is, more than 60 per cent of the voters have voted against the BJP. The BJP has succeeded in winning seats only because of the division in the anti-BJP votes.

DIVISION IN ANTI-BJP VOTES

Therefore, one major reason that is clearly visible for the unexpected results is the division in the anti-BJP votes. If this division could have been avoided, the BJP was sure to be wiped out in the state.  The opposition failed to unite the anti-BJP votes.

As the main opposition party, the Congress was in a state of overconfidence and all factions of its state leadership were saying that the Congress was in a position to win the elections on its own and did not need any alliance. The leaders of the AAP party also kept making similar statements. If all the components of the 'INDIA bloc' could have been accommodated, the results would have been different. Although the Congress high command talked about taking along the 'INDIA bloc' constituent parties, but in practice it could not happen. The Communist Party of India (Marxist) was certainly accommodated on one seat in Bhiwani. Several rounds of talks were held with the AAP party but mutual consensus could not be reached. Who is responsible for this? Both parties need to introspect on this aspect. There is a need to review whether efforts were made to take along other constituent parties or not.

Another aspect of the division of anti-BJP votes is that the number of ticket seekers in Congress was very large on every seat due to favourable environment for Congress. On August 28, 2024, the CPI(M) state committee took note of this fact and noted that many of the ticket seekers who will not get tickets may rebel and contest the elections as independent candidates. How the Congress will deal with these would be a factor to be seen. It was also noted that the BJP will keep an eye on these rebel candidates and may use them to divide the opposition votes by supporting them directly/indirectly in various ways. Something similar has happened.

The factionalism in the Congress has clearly led to anger against the criteria for ticket distribution. Congress decided to field all the sitting MLAs in the elections, as a result of which 15 out of 28 MLAs lost. Apart from this, serious questions have been raised about the criteria of ticket distribution. There are at least 17 seats where Congress has lost because of its rebels. There are many seats where rebel candidates of Congress have secured more votes than the official candidate of the party and have lost by a small margin. While in one seat, that of Bahadurgarh, the rebel candidate has won. Apart from this, BJP has used its money power to the fullest. According to reports received from various districts and constituencies, BJP candidates and independents indirectly supported by BJP have spent money in various forms to lure and mislead voters.

Unhappy with ticket distribution due to factionalism, senior Congress leader Kumari Selja remained completely absent from the election campaign for about 10 days. BJP-RSS propaganda machinery took full advantage of this situation for caste mobilisation. A very reprehensible and insulting comment against Kumari Selja was made viral on social media by an ignorant man, which was strongly condemned by Congress leaders and an FIR was also lodged against him. Despite this, the BJP-RSS propaganda machinery and Godi media got the opportunity and they shamelessly used it to incite caste sentiments.

BJP seemed completely grounded on the issues of terrible unemployment, record breaking inflation, plight of farmers, agricultural workers and cattle rearers, destruction of all public basic services including education and health services, state being identified as a major centre of drug and crime system, deteriorating law and order etc during the BJP rule. It was in a state of helplessness and powerlessness. People were taking its election announcements as mere rhetoric; whereas the election announcements of Congress seemed comparatively better and credible. Therefore, BJP-RSS propaganda machinery tried its best to cover up the real issues and raise communal and caste polarisation. Advertisements in newspapers were also focused on sharpening this polarisation by BJP, which in itself was a gross violation of the code of conduct. But the Election Commission remained a silent spectator.

The BJP's intentions behind making Nayab Singh Saini the chief minister by breaking ties with JJP just before the elections was also for caste based mobilisation.  In particular, the focus was to strengthen the consolidation of other backward classes, which account for about 40 per cent of the state's population. Apart from this, learning from the results of the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP has also tried to make inroads into the SC community. Just before the announcement of the assembly elections and immediately after the Supreme Court's decision on August 1, 2024, an ordinance was passed in favour of sub-classification in SC reservation. The BJP's motive behind this is not to provide justice to the deprived sections, but to create division among them and to take political advantage. No one should have any doubt about it. But the opposition has failed to foil its tactics. The BJP has benefited from it in Haryana.

In the Lok Sabha elections, the Congress national leadership campaigned aggressively in favour of caste census, and social justice, which had put the BJP on the defensive, but it was unable to do so in the Haryana assembly elections. The Congress's national-level response to the Supreme Court's decision regarding sub-classification of reservation in the SC community was not in line with the advocacy of social justice by its leadership, which the BJP has tried to take advantage of.

On the basis of the above details, we can regretfully say that what we had indicated after the Lok Sabha elections, that the BJP has a priority among urban voters, other backward classes and so-called upper caste communities, not only remained in the assembly elections, but there has also been some breakthrough in the large section of Scheduled Castes which had turned away from it.

Despite all this, the Congress has received votes more or less from all sections. The Congress has received 39.09 per cent votes in the assembly elections, which is 10.89 per cent more than the 2019 assembly elections.  If we include the 0.25 per cent votes received by the CPI (M) candidate in Bhiwani, it becomes more than 11 per cent. Thus, there is only a 0.6 per cent difference in the vote percentage of the BJP and Congress side. It is the fault of the electoral system itself that despite the vote percentage of the BJP and Congress being almost equal, there is a difference of 11 in the number or 12 per cent of seats. If there was proportional representation, the seats of both would have been almost equal. Thus, the claim of the mandate being in favour of the BJP is baseless. Despite all kinds of tricks, manipulations, huge amounts of money, propaganda machinery and control over all agencies, the BJP has failed to get the majority of the people's votes.

CPI(M)’S COMMENDABLE PERFORMANCE

Being a part of the 'INDIA bloc', after many rounds of talks, Congress finally announced to leave the Bhiwani seat for the Communist Party of India (Marxist) on the last day of nomination. Bhiwani is called Chhoti Kashi. This assembly constituency has been an old strong hold of RSS. After the formation of Haryana, the first assembly election from this area was won by the Jan Sangh candidate. Since 2009, BJP has been winning the elections continuously. Now for the fourth time also, Ghanshyam Das Saraf of BJP has won. Out of the 14 assembly elections held from this area so far, the Congress party has been able to win the election from here only for four times. This means that the position of the Congress party has remained weak in this area. In the last assembly elections also held in 2019, the Congress candidate stood third.

When the announcement of leaving this seat for the CPI(M) was made, the reaction in political circles was that the Congress has served this seat to the BJP on a platter.  But as the election campaign gained momentum, the discussion changed completely. Most people started saying the same thing that out of all the candidates contesting on all 90 seats in Haryana, the best candidate was the candidate of the Communist Party of India (Marxist). Everyone started believing that the BJP candidate, who has won three times in a row, is going to lose this time.

The Communist Party of India (Marxist) fielded Om Prakash, the Party's state committee member and Bhiwani district secretary, as its candidate from Bhiwani constituency. Om Prakash held the post of chief manager in UCO Bank and after taking voluntary retirement, dedicated himself completely to the Party work. While being an employee in Bhiwani, he was active in the bank employees' organisation and also played a very active and leadership role on the issues of civics amenities of local citizens. For the last almost about four decades, he has been the convener of 'Jan Sangharsh Samiti, Bhiwani'.  In the last ten years after retirement, he first worked with the trade union front, CITU, and fought militant movements by organising MNREGA workers. Apart from this, he also played a leadership role in the movements of scheme workers and building construction workers.

For the last four years, he has been the main organiser of the Kisan Sabha in the district. Due to his role in the 13-month-long historic kisan movement, he emerged as the main leader of not only the Kisan Sabha but the entire Samyukta Kisan Morcha. Due to his united actions in the movement of roadways employees, cases were registered against him under serious sections and he also had to go to jail. Under his leadership, there have been continuous and effective interventions by the Party against social oppression, hooliganism and criminal incidents and communal incidents and for civic amenities.

Even though the organisational presence of the Party in Bhiwani is very limited, Om Prakash's identity as a Party leader is much wider than the impact of our Party and mass fronts. Due to his contribution and identity, there was a discussion that there is no better candidate than him in Haryana.

Our candidate received enthusiastic support from all sections of the public. To compensate for the lack of workers in the election campaign, the Party mobilised workers from other districts. Most of the comrades of the Party's state secretariat and state committee spent atleast sometime in the election campaign.  The Party state centre was completely shifted to Bhiwani.

Our workers have done tremendous work. They established contacts by working in completely unfamiliar places and took the election campaign to every house. It is a common discussion among the people of Bhiwani that no other Party has such dedicated and hardworking workers. Our comrades have won the hearts of the people of Bhiwani by their work, dedication and behavior.

Many people from across the state have extended their full cooperation and support in various ways in the Party's election campaign for Bhiwani constituency. The minimum financial needs for the campaign were also met easily with the wider support.

Most of the leaders of the Congress party have also extended their cooperation and support to us. However, the role of some has been suspicious and there is also talk that one or two of them have secretly contributed to benefit the BJP candidate in the last round of campaign.

There were 18 candidates in Bhiwani assembly constituency. Apart from BJP and us, there were 14 independent candidates including Congress rebels and candidates from Aam Aadmi Party and INLD.

The result of Bhiwani assembly constituency was also shocking for many. There was a general talk that the BJP was going to lose here in a tough contest. There was anti-incumbency against the BJP candidate. The resentment against him was among all including BJP supporters. Being an MLA for three times, he did not do any work for the people of the area, rather the civic condition of Bhiwani is like a hell. The streets are filled with sewerage water. Even clean drinking water is not available, leave aside the other development works. Even then the BJP candidate has won with a good margin of votes. The BJP candidate got 67,087 votes, our candidate got 34,373 votes. Apart from this, the AAP candidate got 17,573 votes and the rebel candidate of Congress got 15,810 votes. If the votes of both of them are added, then it is more than the victory margin of the BJP candidate.

Apart from this, it should be kept in mind that the RSS has an old base there and has become stronger in the last ten years with the help of the government. The kind of caste mobilisation done in the state has had its impact in Bhiwani as well. There are also talks that at the last moment, the BJP has bargained with other rivals apart from us. The use of money power is a common discussion. Despite all this, we have got the highest number of votes in the last 15 years among all the candidates who were in opposition to the BJP.

Even though our candidate has lost, but we have achieved a lot. A positive atmosphere has been created in our favour. Politically and organisationally we have only gained. In the coming times, the main challenge and task before us is to strengthen and expand the influence which we have earned in this election.