THE results of the Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections are of great significance. The victory of the National Conference-led alliance, winning 49 of the 90 seats, is a strong verdict against the Modi government and the BJP’s authoritarian steps to dismantle the state of J&K and deprive it of its special status. The people of the Valley have also foiled the BJP’s campaign to field proxies and encourage separatist elements to contest to divide the vote. The fact that the BJP could poll only 2.2 per cent of the votes cast in the Valley shows the total rejection of the Hindutva forces’ game-plan to destroy the identity of the Kashmiri people.
At the same time, the success of the BJP in Jammu, by winning 29 seats (three more than last time) and the record of the Congress of winning only one seat in the region shows that the communal divide between Jammu and the Valley has deepened. This will be a big challenge for the new government on how to represent and accommodate the interests of the Jammu region.
The government headed by Omar Abdullah will have to work under severe constraints. This is a government and a legislative assembly of a union territory. The Lt. Governor is going to have overriding powers, which have been reinforced by amendments to the rules under the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act. The J&K government will be faced with the same situation as the Delhi government. The formation of the government must be seen as a first step in the struggle for immediate statehood of J&K. Only the restoration of a full-fledged state would pave the way for an end to central control through the Lt. Governor.
The BJP’s success in Haryana was unexpected. It was widely perceived that the Congress had an edge in these elections and all the exit polls forecast a Congress victory. However, the BJP has been able to get a majority with 48 seats, compared to the 37 seats won by the Congress. The vote share of the BJP is 39.9 per cent, while that of the Congress and its supporters is 39.3 per cent, which is only a difference of 0.6 per cent. The failure of the Congress to stitch up seat adjustments with AAP and Samajwadi party is relevant in this context as the AAP polled 1.8 per cent. The BJP seems to have been able to maintain its non-Jat coalition of caste support. The Congress party was unable to broaden its appeal due to the leadership of Bhupinder Singh Hooda reinforcing the Jat image. The Congress party also suffered due to factional groupism. A less noted feature has been the systematic communal campaigning by the BJP and the RSS targeting the minorities, which went more or less, unanswered or countered by the Congress.
The victory of the BJP in Haryana will, no doubt, embolden the Hindutva forces. The CPI(M) had warned after the Lok Sabha polls that, though the BJP had suffered a setback having failed to get a majority, there should be no underestimation of the strength of the BJP in terms of the Hindutva-bloc of voters that it had consolidated. The Haryana election results should strengthen the resolve of the Left, democratic and secular forces to wage a continuous struggle against the BJP-RSS ideology and politics.
(October 9, 2024)
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