THE decadal census, which was due in 2021, has not been held so far. In the union budget 2024-25, no substantial provision has been made for conducting the census. The centre has also not extended the deadline of June 2024 to freeze administrative boundaries which are necessary to conduct the census as per the administrative boundaries like districts, taluk, block or village levels.

So the 2021 census, which should have begun in 2020, is indefinitely delayed. At that time, the government had stated that the census operations can be conducted only after the Covid, but now, three years later, there are no signs of the census being held even in 2024. India has become one of the four countries where no census has been held after the Covid.

From the time of British rule, the census has been conducted every ten years without fail. Even in 1941, during the Second World War, the census was held on a truncated basis. The census provides not only a population count, but also comprehensive data which includes household data, cultivating classes and agricultural workers in the rural areas. It also provides a picture of the urban-rural population, linguistic-speaking groups and data about Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes.

It is this wealth of data which enables policy planners and administrators at all levels to design policies which cater to different sections of people. For instance, the National Food Security Act provides that up to 75 per cent of the rural population and 50 per cent of the urban population shall be covered under the Act. Further, allocations “shall be calculated on the basis of the population estimates as per the census of which the relevant figures are published”. Using the 2021 census, around 81.5 crore were people covered under the Act. A calculation, based on the projected population in March 2024, would put that number at 93 crore. This would mean that due to the lack of a census, eleven crore people are being deprived of subsidised or free grains.

The constitutional amendment providing one-third reservation for women in parliament and state legislatures stipulates that this would be done after the census and the delimitation will take place after that.  By not conducting the census, the reservation for women seems to be in the distant future (at least not in 2029).

Another fall-out of the lack of a census is that many villages that have been urbanised will not be able to get the statutory town status with the attendant, municipal administration and facilities.

A harmful consequence of not holding the census is that the delimitation of boundaries of parliamentary and legislative constituencies cannot take place. In a democracy, it is essential that constituencies are so demarcated that every person’s vote carries an equal weight.

So, why is the government showing no inclination to order a census? One reason could be the general contempt for statistical surveys conducted on a scientific basis that we have seen in the past few years. Various surveys have either been suppressed or the statistical parameters for the survey altered to distort it.

This is of a piece with the BJP-RSS promoting irrationality in politics and formulating policies.  It is driven by the Hindutva ideology. For instance, the Assam chief minister, Himanta Biswa Sarma, has repeatedly claimed that Muslims will overtake Hindus by 2041 census without a shred of evidence. On the basis of such irrational claims, anti-Muslim laws and measures have been put in place in Assam.

The census has become a victim of the anti-scientific outlook of the BJP and the Hindutva forces. So to ensure that policy making is driven by scientific data and to ensure justice for all oppressed sections in society, it is imperative to demand that the much-delayed 2021 census be held next year itself and the preparatory work for it should be undertaken in this year.  This should be the demand of all democratic sections and the opposition.

(July 31, 2024)