Karnataka: BJP Would be Defeated, People’s Voice to be Heard
Vasanth N K
THE election battle in Karnataka has reached a decisive stage, with only a few days of campaigning left. Last week, 98 central star campaigners from the BJP arrived in the state, including PM Modi, home minister Amit Shah, and Uttar Pradesh CM Yogi, who held several public meetings and roadshows. Roadshows, a campaign method mostly used by the BJP, have been criticised for being a pernicious election tactic that lacks political content. These shows display money, muscle, and political power, causing traffic jams and public inconvenience for hours. However, due to the popularity and impact of BJP roadshows, Congress and other parties have followed suit. While the Election Commission imposes unreasonable restrictions on street corner meetings, impromptu public meetings, door-to-door campaigns, and other forms of political messaging, and has banned posters and wall writings in the name of security, cost control, and preventing public inconvenience, roadshows do not seem to have any of these restrictions. As a result, opposition candidates and parties with fewer resources are at a disadvantage.
A circular issued by Shobha Karandlaje, a BJP leader and union minister, to all BJP booth leaders asking them to identify sensitive and very sensitive booths, so that the EC could declare them so, has sparked controversy. The Congress party questioned whether the minister was trying to direct the EC's work. Complaints about videos of Manikanta, the BJP candidate in Kalburgi, showing a pistol on social media were raised. Dr G Parameshwar, a Congress leader, was hit on the head with stones during a rally. Many opposition candidates and citizen groups have complained to the EC and questioned how voters' phone numbers were available to the current BJP MLA after receiving their voter slips. Seizures of cash and materials intended as inducements for the election have crossed Rs 300 Crores this week, almost equal to the seizures of the last four elections and 2.5 times the seizures of the last election.
This week, the manifestos of both the BJP and Congress were released. The Congress party also announced their fifth guarantee even before the manifesto was released. With the Congress party focusing on 'Five Guarantees' and specific issues, the BJP had to campaign on issues after having failed to raise emotional issues to divert attention. After the release of the manifestos of both parties, the election discourse mainly focused on specific policies, promises, and guarantees. However, there was more than a fair share of exchanges of abuses from both sides, which was amplified by sensationalist media. Complaints and counter-complaints of these abuses from both parties prompted the Election Commission to issue advisories to all campaigners, asking them to exercise restraint and stick to an issue-based debate. The only action taken by the Election Commission on complaints of violation of the election code was to register an FIR against Somanna, the BJP candidate who was contesting against Siddaramaiah, for luring the JD(S) candidate to withdraw from the contest. A complaint has been raised with an audio recording that is claimed to be of the call.
Below are further details about the Congress and the BJP manifestos, and about the changing campaign narratives and poll predictions
ELECTORAL PROMISES
Last week, we covered the key points of the JD(S) and CPI(M) manifestos, as well as the "Peoples Manifestos" issued by various mass organisations, peoples movements, and activist groups. Recently, the BJP released its manifesto on May Day, which emphasises its core Hindutva agenda. The party has promised to implement the Uniform Civil Code, National Register of Citizens in Karnataka, and ensure the speedy deportation of all illegal immigrants. They have also promised to create a special wing in the state police called K-SWIFT, which stands for "Karnataka - State Wing Against Religious Fundamentalism and Terror."
After initially deriding the "guarantees" of the Congress party as "guarantees of a party with expired guarantee" and mocking their "freebies", the BJP was forced to include some "freebies" in their own manifesto. The party realised that with its vague "budgetary announcements" (such as allocating certain hundreds or thousands of crores for various development schemes), it would not be able to match the Congress party's campaign.
The BJP has announced its own set of "freebies" in its manifesto, which includes providing three free cooking gas cylinders to BPL families annually during the three festivals, setting up Atal Aahara Kendras in every ward of municipal corporations (similar to Congress's "Indira Canteens"), providing half a litre of free Nandini milk per day to BPL families, five kg of millets per month along with regular ration kits, increasing the widow pension from Rs 800 to Rs 2,000, establishing Namma Clinics in every ward of every municipal corporation (a project that has seen little progress in the last two budgets), and offering a free annual master health check-up for all senior citizens.
When questioned about these "freebies", the BJP president clarified that while the "guarantees" of the Congress party are mere freebies, those offered by the BJP are measures to empower people to face economic difficulties caused by the international situation!
In addition to the "freebies" mentioned earlier, the BJP manifesto promises to create 10 lakh manufacturing jobs and establish the state as the Electric Vehicle hub. The manifesto also includes other announcements that were made in the last budget.
The Congress released its manifesto the next day, reaffirming its four 'guarantees' – 200 units of free electricity to every household; Rs 2,000 to every woman head of household; 10 kgs of choice of rice or grains to every Below Poverty Line (BPL) family; and payment of Rs 3,000 for two years to unemployed graduates and Rs 1,500 for unemployed diploma holders for two years. It also included its fifth guarantee announced this week - free travel for all women on regular BMTC/KSRTC buses. Moreover, Congress included important policy announcements in its manifesto. It promised to repeal all 'anti-people' laws within one year. The manifesto also commits to reversing the amendments made to The Factories Act, which increased the working hours of employees from 8 to 12 hours. The manifesto promises to revoke the anti-farmer laws introduced by the BJP and withdraw cases against farmers. It also pledged to reverse the changes made by the BJP to school textbooks in the state, develop a state education policy, and override the union government's National Education Policy.
The Congress manifesto includes a resolve to take firm and decisive action against individuals and organisations that spread hatred among communities based on caste or religion, such as Bajrang Dal, PFI, or others promoting enmity or hatred, whether among the majority or minority communities. The manifesto commits to taking decisive action as per the law, including imposing a ban on any such organisations. This statement is being used by the BJP to change the political discourse.
The Congress also promised to increase the salary of scheme workers, including anganwadi workers to Rs 15,000 per month, ASHA workers to Rs 8,000, and mid-day meal workers to Rs 5,000. The manifesto also promises to give anganwadi workers a retirement benefit of Rs 3 lakh. The manifesto commits to restoring the Old Pension Scheme for state government employees who joined after 2006.
Both BJP and Congress have committed in their manifestos to amend the Karnataka Apartment Ownership Act, 1972 to protect the rights of homeowners and increase the price of one litre of milk provided by dairy farmers from Rs 5 to Rs 7. However, it must be noted that while both parties have promised immediate relief to people, they do not address the root cause of the economic distress, which is the neoliberal economic agenda. It cannot be expected of these parties. The Left-democratic forces have tried to bring this aspect into the political discourse wherever they are contesting.
CHANGING CAMPAIGN NARRATIVES
For most of the week, Congress leaders and cadre focused on the "guarantees" and attacked the non-performance and anti-incumbency factors of the BJP. BJP leaders, on the other hand, stuck to their mantra of Modi and the double engine, attacking Congress for parivarvaad and corruption. The BJP tried to accuse Congress of being anti-Lingayat, and Congress hit back by saying that RSS ideology is anti-Basava Tatva. While the general discourse was on these issues, abuses were hurled from both sides. Mallikarjun Kharge called BJP a "venomous snake" and the PM himself, and other BJP leaders claimed it was a personal attack on PM Modi. A BJP leader called Priyanka Gandhi Vadra a "Vishakanya". Home minister Amit Shah asserted that "if Congress wins, there will be communal riots." Mayank Kharge called Modi a "nalayak beta." PM Modi started playing the victim card, claiming that he was "abused 91 times." He declared that "Congress rule is corruption kaal and BJP rule is Amrit kaal," countered by a Congress leader stating that BJP rule was "Amrit kaal for BJP MLAs and Vish kaal for people." Both Modi and Amit Shah began attacking JD(S) this week, stating that "a vote for JD(S) is a vote for Congress." H D Kumaraswamy of JD(S) replied, "We are the B team of Kannadigas," when accused of being the B team of Congress and BJP. Many BJP leaders hailed the "UP Model" and promised "Yogi Raj" of bulldozers for all those who oppose or obstruct government measures.
Interestingly, the ‘Gujarat Model’ is conspicuous by its absence in the BJP campaign so far.
While the "volley of abuses" continued, leaders of both parties were trying to create a "wave" so that they could reach an absolute majority. Both were eyeing southern Karnataka and attacking JD(S) to expand into that region. BJP specifically brought Yogi to meet the seer of Adichunchanagiri, the Vokkaliga mutt, as both are supposed to belong to Natha Pantha.
With the release of manifestos, the discourse was expected to and did shift towards a race in freebies. BJP took the line of "Congress never fulfills its promises" and "ours is empowerment, theirs is freebies". Congress hit back by saying BJP was forced to make promises to face the impact of Congress's promises. However, soon BJP seized on the "ban of Bajrang Dal" in the Congress manifesto and went to town with an "anti-Hindu Congress" tirade. PM Modi himself led this campaign with the accusation "you locked Ram earlier, now are you locking Bajrang Bali?" and the rest followed with gusto. BJP is using this to again emotionalise, communalise the campaign and divert attention away from real issues. All will depend on how much people respond to this. However, it is not likely that this can reverse the trend so far.
OPINION POLLS
In the last few days, several media outlets and survey agencies have released pre-election opinion polls regarding voting trends and election issues. Among the eight agencies that conducted polls on voting trends, three (Small Box India, E Dina, TV9-C-Voter) predict a clear or near Congress majority, one (Mood of Karnataka by Public TV) gives Congress a lead over BJP but not a majority, two (Zee News-Matrize, Asianet Survarna News Jan Ki Baat) predict a slender BJP lead over Congress, and two (South First-People’s Pulse, Vistara News) predict a near tie without a majority for either party. In a survey conducted by CSDS-Lokniti on election issues, strong anti-incumbency and significant loss of support for BJP were found to be quite clear.
All of the above points seem to indicate that there are two possible results: BJP will not be able to secure a clear majority and will be defeated; and people’s voice will be heard in the Karnataka assembly through at least two representatives – Dr Anil Kumar of CPI(M) from Bagepalli and Darshan Puttanniah of Sarvodaya from Melukote.
People’s Voice to be Heard in the Assembly
PEOPLE’S voice will be heard in the Karnataka assembly through at least two representatives - Dr Anil Kumar of CPI(M) from Bagepalli and Darshan Puttannaiah of Sarvodaya from Melukote. In the 2018 elections, CPI(M) candidate Com G V Sreeramareddy polled 51,697 (31.4 per cent) votes, Congress candidate S N Subbareddy got 65,710 (39.9 per cent), JD(S) candidate got 38,302 (23.3 per cent), and BJP candidate got 4140 (2.52 per cent) votes. This time, Congress has fielded S N Subbareddy again, while C Muniraju is contesting on BJP ticket. JD(S) is not contesting but is actively campaigning for the CPI(M) candidate.
The main contest is between Congress and CPI(M) since the BJP party base is limited, and their candidate is not well-known. Dr Anil Kumar, the CPI(M) candidate, well-known as the 'People's Doctor,' is expected to win, assuming the Party retains its vote share and gets even half the vote share of JD(S). Additionally, the Congress candidate, a legislator for two consecutive terms, has not addressed people's issues and is facing significant anti-incumbency, which would result in substantial loss of votes. The CPI(M) would also attract a substantial part of the anti-incumbency votes, given its track record of solving people's issues and long intensive campaigning. The BJP candidate, with his party's strong resource and organisational support, may also attract anti-incumbency votes and is likely to take third place.
Similarly, Darshan Puttannaiah of Sarvodaya is likely to win the Melukote seat. In the 2013 election, well-known peasant leader Puttannaiah had won the seat with 49.8 per cent votes, closely followed by C S Puttaraju of JD(S) with a 43.6 per cent vote share. In 2018, C S Puttaraju won with a 54.9 per cent vote share, defeating Darshan with a 42.2 per cent vote share. The BJP candidate received only 0.9 per cent votes. This time too, the main contest is between Darshan and Puttaraju, with Congress not contesting the seat. CPI(M) is actively campaigning for Darshan. After the recent peasant movement in the country and state, there is strong support for the peasant cause. Puttannaiah, being a well-known popular peasant leader, and with the support of social activists and people's movements, is expected to win back the vote base of 2013.
