Vasanth N K
LAST week, the Karnataka election scene witnessed a significant development with the revolt and resignation of Jagadish Shettar, Laxman Savadi, and several other senior leaders, including two MPs, who joined other parties. Jagadish Shettar, a former BJP CM and six-time MLA, was asked to retire from electoral politics, which he refused, leading to his resignation from the party along with his followers. He has now accepted the Congress' invitation to be their candidate from his constituency, despite his background in the RSS and BJP. Jagadish Shettar has also declared that he is not afraid of IT/ED raids as he claims to be clean.
Laxman Savadi, ex deputy CM also joined the Congress and got a ticket. This unexpected move has sent shockwaves through the BJP, with at least 18 sitting MLAs and several strong aspirants who either came second last time or had potential winning capability, being denied tickets. It is reported that in at least 20 constituencies there was serious protests, violence/rioting inside or in front of BJP offices. In over 40 constituencies, BJP is facing serious revolts/resignations. There are now questions being raised about the BJP leadership's election strategy and the impact this revolt will have on the results.
In order to address these questions, it is necessary to first understand the emerging picture of the contest as of April 19th. At this point, the BJP has announced candidates for all but two seats, while the Congress is also facing revolt in many constituencies and has yet to announce tickets for eight seats. The Congress high command refused to give Siddaramaiah a second seat in Kolar. Meanwhile, the JD(S) appears to be the net beneficiary of revolts in both the BJP and Congress. It has given 24 tickets to 12 each to Congress and BJP dissidents. Previously, the JD(S) had announced 86 seats and resolved an "intra-family" issue by denying a ticket to Bhavani, the eldest daughter-in-law of Devegowda.
As of April 18th, the AAP had filed nominations in 50 seats and the BSP in 17. The BSP has made a seat adjustment with the SDPI, which has so far filed nominations in a few constituencies but is expected to fight more seats. The notorious mine-baron Janardhana Reddy's KRPP has also filed nominations but only in a few constituencies. However, the party has announced that it will contest all seats in the erstwhile undivided Ballari and Raichur districts. Reddy appears to be facing two reverses. Firstly, the Supreme Court has rejected his plea seeking relaxation in bail conditions, which includes a bar on entry to Ballari district, preventing him from campaigning for the assembly elections. Secondly, his party has failed to attract "BJP rebels," which was said to be the purpose of the party, as they are going to the Congress or JD(S) instead.
In another major development related to the elections, the Supreme Court has stayed the Muslim reservation cancellation by the BJP government and remarked that it is based on "absolutely fallacious assumptions." In continuing attacks on the democratic right of dissent, the OCI visa of well-known Kannada critic Chetan was cancelled. He has been a strong critic of Hindutva ideology and politics. The debate over the Nandini-Amul merger continues to simmer.
HAS BJP FALTERED IN ITS ELECTION STRATEGY?
Now, let's consider the question: has the BJP leadership faltered in its election strategy? Three hypotheses are being advanced to answer this question, with a common assumption that "Chanakya is not stupid."
The first hypothesis suggests that the election strategy used in Gujarat, the ‘Gujarat Model,’ was adopted in Karnataka as conditions were similar – massive victory in 2019 Lok Sabha elections amidst serious anti-incumbency for state government. So the strategy was to oust tainted or anti-incumbent MLAs and old powerful leaders with caste/mass bases who tend to create factions and likely ignore central/RSS directions; and bring in fresh new faces who are hardliners and can advance the communal card brazenly and obey central/RSS directions. This ‘Gujarat Model’ assumed that the ousted leaders in Karnataka would accept the decisions gracefully with discipline and without protest. However, since senior leaders violated the discipline expected of them, the strategy is now facing challenges.
The second hypothesis suggests that a faction within the BJP fulfilled its own factional objectives in the name of implementing the ‘Gujarat Model’. This faction led by BL Santosh and Prahlad Joshi, has been trying to gain ascendancy over other factions by misleading the central leadership. The BJP in Karnataka has long been dominated by leaders from the Lingayat caste, as well as a few others who have their own respective caste-based support. This faction began by removing Yediyurappa from the position of chief minister and then attempted to eliminate other leaders during seat allocations, who had independent caste-based support, citing various pretexts. The denial of tickets to potential chief minister aspirants like Shettar, Savadi (Lingayat leaders), Eashwarappa (OBC leader), and Limbavali (SC leader), who also demanded tickets for their followers, was part of this strategy. Even the so-called 'two-seat experiment' foisted on Somanna and R Ashok, who respectively belong to the Lingayat and Vokkaliga castes, was part of the same plot. It was expected that these impacted leaders would either accept the decision with discipline or leave the party and contest independently or through other parties. Tickets were mostly given to new faces or to those who lack their own base and would unquestioningly follow the directions of the central/RSS leadership. The ultimate goal of this faction was to install B L Santosh or Prahlad Joshi as the next chief minister. Some have interpreted this strategy as an attempt to re-establish the supremacy of the Brahmin lobby in the BJP by weakening and subordinating all other caste lobbies.
The third hypothesis considers that the strategy is a grand plan, with the expectation that the BJP will not secure a majority, resulting in a hung assembly. Therefore, BJP leaders and members should be sent as "Trojan Horses" to the Congress and JD(S). Revolts, resignations, and joining other parties are all acts of the grand plan, suitably triggered. At the appropriate time, they will do "ghar-vapsi" and return to the BJP with others as required.
The second hypothesis fits better with the available facts and information. Shettar has openly accused Santosh and Joshi of being responsible for his and other leaders' removals. Even the media is now openly discussing Santosh's role, which was only previously whispered about. However, the other two hypotheses cannot be dismissed entirely.
It is well-known that the RSS has been increasing its influence and tightening its control over the BJP and the state government. The party's victory in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections on a Hindutva and Modi platform further emboldened it. Yediyurappa's dominance of the party was seen as an obstacle, and once it was overcome, they moved on to remove other obstacles.
WHAT IS THE IMPACT OF BJP REVOLT ?
Can it be said that the BJP is on the backfoot or even finished after this revolt? Contrary to what some observers are saying, one cannot conclusively reach that conclusion. It is true that the revolt has come at a cost to the BJP. However, in the state, revolts, resignations, and 'aya ram, gaya ram' between the three parties is not a new phenomenon. The only new aspect is the scale of the revolt within the BJP. Despite this, the revolt can still be managed and damage control measures, such as forcing the withdrawal of nominations and non-campaigning, can still be taken with the use of carrot and stick policy at the party and government level, including the threat of IT/ED raids. The BJP leadership's ruthlessness and meticulousness, as well as its well-oiled election machinery, should not be underestimated. By itself, this revolt may not be a significant factor.
The tendency for rebellion and defiance of discipline by BJP candidates and leaders, despite the possibility of adverse consequences, may also reflect the fear of the public's anger and frustration with their lack of performance.
The BJP's Lingayat base will definitely be impacted to some extent by the talk of "insult to tall Lingayat leaders." However, the tallest leader of the Lingayat community, Yediyurappa, may still be able to address this to some extent.
The Congress is also not immune to revolts and factionalism. Its open-armed welcome to BJP dissidents may not sit well with its base, especially minorities and secular supporters. The Congress seems to be focusing too much on the BJP's internal conflicts and is not emphasising anti-communalism in its propaganda, perhaps to not upset its ‘imported’ leaders. It has also been relatively slow in highlighting issues related to anti-corruption and other anti-incumbency factors. Its overconfidence and complacency may weaken its position.
There will definitely be changes in the nature of the contests. Earlier, most seats were considered to be a two-way contest between the BJP and Congress (in 2018 it was 88 per cent), with some three-way contests involving the JD(S) as well. However, with powerful dissidents fighting as independents or on JD(S) tickets, three-way and multi-cornered contests may increase. This can have an unpredictable impact on the results.
Overall, it is difficult to assess the impact of the BJP revolt on the contest and results. It will depend on how the Congress handles the situation. Additionally, it will depend on how effectively the Congress exposes all of the BJP’s anti-incumbency aspects and presents a positive agenda.
CPI(M) Files Nomination in Four Constituencies
Anil Kumar filed his nomination papers for the Bagepally constituency on April 15th as a CPI(M) candidate, with an impressive procession that saw thousands of Party supporters participating. Later, a huge election rally was held where the main speaker was Sitaram Yechury, the general secretary of the CPI(M). U Basavaraj, CPI(M) state secretary, along with other state/district leaders and Anil Kumar, also participated. The venue of the rally was overflowing with people.
Thangaraj, Nanjegowda, and Panduranga Mavinkar filed their nominations for the KGF (SC), KR Puram, and Kalburgi Rural (SC) constituencies, respectively. Campaigning has started in all four constituencies.
