THE world today seems very far away from those heady revolutionary days when the October Revolution in Russia happened. It is 105 years since this historic revolution took place which resulted in the world’s first socialist State.  It is 31 years since the end of the Soviet Union, the period since which was marked by the ascendancy of imperialism.

The three decades since 1991 saw a renewed round of aggressive wars of intervention by US imperialism and NATO.  The targets were developing countries which did not possess nuclear weapons and had comparatively weaker armed forces. The bombing attacks on Serbia in 1999, the invasion and occupation of Afghanistan in 2001 and Iraq in 2003 and the bombing and intervention in Libya in 2011 – all took place in the first two decades after the dismantling of the Soviet Union.

US EFFORTS TO RETAIN HEGEMONY

There is a new level of escalation of US-NATO aggression in the current decade.  The war in Ukraine, which is fully backed by the United States and NATO, is confronting Russia, a country with a large military force and the second largest nuclear arsenal in the world.  Along with this, the United States has heightened its confrontation with China which it now perceived as its main strategic rival. 

The United States has forged alliances in the ‘Indo-Pacific’ region like the Quad and AUKUS aimed at China. It is forging alliances and groupings with Israel as a lynchpin in West Asia and it has increased its military presence in Africa in a big way through Africom.

This drive for maintaining American imperialist hegemony all over the world is taking place at a time when the continuing crisis of neoliberal capitalism is inflicting more burdens on the working people in Europe and other advanced capitalist countries. The Covid pandemic has further aggravated the economic crisis and a world-wide recession is looming ahead. 

The world is witnessing intensified exploitation and the depredations of finance capital have led to the big corporates and the superrich to exponentially grow their profits and wealth.

The processes of neoliberalism and austerity measures, the rise of ethno-nationalism and religious extremism have all contributed to the rightward shift globally. 

US-CHINA CONFLICT

However, these developments have to be viewed dialectically.  The major contradictions that are at play are resulting in the social, economic and political developments. The first major contradiction is between the US-led imperialist order and the People’s Republic of China which represents a system which challenges the imperialist order. It is the growing all-round strength of China which makes the United States focus its central attention to countering and isolating China. The steady expansion of China’s economic power and technological process should be set against the relative weakening of the US economic strength.  This alongside the military supremacy that the US exercises as a global power is the root cause of the current aggressive moves by US imperialism to maintain its hegemony. It seeks by various means to block China’s advance.

The National Security Strategy 2022 of President Biden talks of a “decisive decade” in which “We will effectively compete with the People’s Republic of China, which is the only competitor with both the intent and, increasingly, the capability to reshape the international order, while constraining a dangerous Russia.”

The “strategic competition” with China has already led to trade sanctions and sanctions on technology on the semi-conductor industry to deprive China of advanced chips.  A new Cold War is in the offing with the United States declaring a trade and technology war against China and buttressing its military alliances directed against China.

As the Political Resolution of the 23rd Congress of the CPI(M) pointed out, the US-China conflict has a bearing on the sharpening of the central contradiction between imperialism and socialism.

NUCLEAR THREAT

The United States has been relentlessly following a policy of establishing nuclear primacy.  Even after the end of the Cold War, it has upgraded its nuclear weaponry and sought to maintain nuclear dominance. In 2002, President Bush left the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty; in 2019, under President Trump, the US withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.  These were done to pursue its quest for nuclear primacy.  The placing of US ballistic defence facilities in Poland and Romania is aimed at Russia. Russia has sought to counter these moves by developing hypersonic missiles. 

UKRAINE WAR

The Ukraine war has thus brought the threat of use of tactical nuclear weapons and a wider nuclear conflagration closer, given that the two main protagonists – US-NATO and Russia – are nuclear powers. 

The war in Ukraine is an outcome of the eastward expansion of NATO aimed at preventing Russia’s rise as a major capitalist power. Though not exactly a result of inter-imperialist contradictions, the conflict in Ukraine bears the hallmark of the contradiction between rival capitalist powers overlaid by the efforts of the United States to consolidate its hegemony over the European Union.

GROWING BURDEN ON DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

The other major contradiction is between the imperialist powers and the lesser developed capitalist countries, including those which are called the emerging markets. The lesser developed countries are facing a major debt crisis.  It is estimated that the total outstanding debt of emerging markets and developing economies (excluding China) stood at $ 8.9 trillion in 2020.  The Russian attack on Ukraine, the sanctions imposed on Russia and the cutting off of supplies of oil and food from these two countries have worsened the situation for the countries dependent on the imports of these commodities. 

The efforts of the US and the G7 countries to rally and mobilise countries against Russia and China are not being met with all-round support with many of the developing countries and medium powers refusing to fall in line with the US-led drive for a united front against both these countries. The success of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and its expansion with newer members indicates the countervailing factors that are prevailing.

LATIN AMERICA: LEFT ADVANCE

While the rightward shift is particularly pronounced in Europe today, the exception is the resistance to US hegemony and neoliberalism which led to the advance of the Left forces in South America.  The victory of Lula in the presidential election in Brazil being the latest in the series of electoral successes of Left and Left Centre presidencies and governments;  Chile has a Left-oriented president after five decades and Columbia has one for the first time in its history. At present, Latin America shows the possibilities of the protracted struggle for socialism in new forms.

RESISTANCE TO RIGHTWARD SHIFT

The rise of the far-right and rightwing forces in Europe has been accompanied by the complete shift of many social-democratic parties to the right by embracing neoliberal policies.  The weakened Left forces have not been able to counter the rightward shift. However, the working people in all the major European countries are putting up stiff resistance to the cost of living crisis and the effects of rising inflation. The strikes and popular struggles in UK, France, Greece and other countries should help the Left to regroup and forge new alignments. The basic fact is that it is the anti-capitalist legacy of the October Revolution that needs to be drawn upon renouncing the social-democratic betrayal and compromises.  

In India too, the rightward shift has manifested in the twin offensive of Hindutva communalism and aggressive neoliberal measures. The communal-corporate regime has ushered in an authoritarianism, which suppresses the political, economic and social rights of people. This is the backdrop in which there is growing resistance by all sections of the working people and a growing unity of different sections of the people in defence of democracy and secularism.

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CRISIS

The global ecological crisis with climate warming and rapid environmental degradation has led to extreme climate events and the destruction of livelihoods and habitats of millions of people and species world-wide and particularly in the poorer countries.  The efforts to halt global warming and cut carbon emissions manifest the contradiction between the rich nations and the developing countries.  The halt to ecological destruction and ecological sustainability cannot be achieved within the framework of the capitalist system. This is a vital task which has to be undertaken by those who fight for socialism.

The October Revolution was the first anti-imperialist and anti-capitalist revolution in the world.  The October Revolution was the product of a historical conjuncture and the correct application of Marxist theory and practice. That conjuncture does not exist in the 21st century. But the major social contradictions of our times have led to a new conjuncture wherein the revolutionary legacy of the October Revolution should help us to renew the struggle for socialism in contemporary times.