SOME right-wing political commentators may be gleefully celebrating the untimely demise of the MVA government in Maharashtra, calling it an ‘unlikely alliance’.

However, it was Uddhav Thackeray, as the chief of a regional party, who had growingly witnessed how the so-called natural alliance between the BJP and Shiv Sena was gradually getting untenable to continue for long. BJP’s deceit was brought home to him when the former reneged in 2019 on the promise of sharing the chief minister’s post.

Since the BJP came to occupy the monopoly position within the Hindutva forces, it was but natural that a political party like the Shiv Sena, which was not originally formed on a Hindutva plank – it embraced that plank later – and had a distinctly regional identity, would eventually be edged out at the opportune moment. The air is already rife with speculation about which regional formation is in the queue to be jettisoned next. If the BJP bulldozer was averse to sharing power with Hindutva brethren, would it be kind to those who have never vouched for that ideology?

The BJP had remained an outsider in state politics in Maharashtra for quite long, continuing the legacy of Jana Sangh, its earlier avatar. The Jana Sangh had to content itself with a score of seats from the fifties to the eighties. It was in the 1990 assembly elections that it first formed an alliance with the Shiv Sena and reaped a bonanza of 42 seats, pocketing 10.7 per cent votes. The Sena got 52 seats with a near 16 per cent vote share. After that the graph rose gradually, and in 1995, in the wake of the horrific Mumbai communal riots of 1992-93, the Shiv Sena-BJP first came to power in the state with a Shiv Sena chief minister.

In the watershed state assembly elections of 2014, riding on the crest of the right-wing reaction, it garnered 122 seats in those elections, reducing the Shiv Sena, a dominant partner till then, to a secondary position. The state had a BJP chief minister for the first time. The Hindutva of the RSS outshone that of the Sena, despite the latter’s adopted bravado. That the junior partner would not be accommodated in the narrow space at the top became more than obvious by the end of their term in power together. For all its Hindutva language, the Shiv Sena could not forget its foundational moorings of regional pride and it had to come into some kind of contradiction with the BJP, which was heavily North Indian in character. This was reflected in the power struggle that spoiled the game for the BJP in 2019.

Currently, Eknath Shinde, with 40 Sena rebel MLAs, is propped up by 105 BJP MLAs with sundry independents who chose to cling to those on the throne. Shinde and his band of Sena renegades, who have been so much used to a remote control, which was always held by Bal Thackeray, may not find humiliating that the real control of his government is in the hands of Fadnavis. Eknath Shinde must be familiar with a song that every Marathi child grows with, ‘Tiny though my doll may be, it casts a shadow bigger than me”. That the real power will be wielded by Fadnavis, who is himself a loyal foot soldier of the big RSS-BJP duo at the centre, is not lost on anyone in Maharashtra. A video of the deputy chief minister snatching the microphone from under his chief’s nose to answer a question is already going viral.

The very first decision in the two member “full cabinet” meeting, even before the forthcoming floor test, of reverting the Metro Car Shed back to the ecologically fragile Aarey Colony greens, the lung of Mumbai, was announced by the deputy and not the chief. The Aarey Car Shed was a pet project of the BJP, sanctioned in the previous term, but it was opposed by the Shiv Sena on the ground. Uddhav Thackeray as chief minister had shifted the project to another place, a property under the central government, which did not make it available to the state government till the end. The Mumbaikars have not taken it lightly and are already up in arms over the decision.

The relations between the earlier state government and the centre remained always high-strung and the authoritarian Modi regime at the centre could not countenance the rights of the states. With the change in government this will not undergo a radical change and the dethroned faction led by Uddhav Thackeray is more than likely to fall back on its founding principle of upholding the rights and dignity of the 'Marathi Manoos'. 

The BJP had been desperately trying to unseat the MVA government, and its attempts have been adequately chronicled. Some perceptive commentators have already hit the nail on the head with their observations about BJP’s desperation. As was reported earlier, municipal corporations of Mumbai and adjacent Thane (the city that Eknath Shinde hails from) along with other local bodies in the state, will have elections in the coming couple of months. These richest bodies, especially Mumbai, cannot be left in the hands of the Shiv Sena. The infrastructure upgrade push and fairly controlled pandemic in all its waves can be the political and administrative capital for the Sena and possible allies to win these elections, especially in these metropolitan cities.

 There is one more factor which must have sent shivers down the spine of the BJP, especially of the former chief and current deputy. There have been some significant developments in the Bhima Koregaon case, which are not at all to the liking of Fadnavis. News has broken out that the Pune police under Fadnavis had allegedly had a hand in infiltrating, for planting false evidence in the electronic devices belonging to the human rights activists and intellectuals, who have been languishing in jail for over four years without trial. This, even now, can hang as a Damocles’ sword over his head. He will need all the power of the pliable agencies to save him from the very fate that he has imposed on the detenus, and will impose, on his ideological and political adversaries.

This explains the proactive role played by the governor Bhagatsingh Koshiyari. It was he, who had not sanctioned the election to the post of the speaker under the new rules framed by the MVA government, and which lay vacant for almost a year and a half. But, he had no qualms in sanctioning the election now, in order to facilitate a change in government, of the speaker under the same rules. He also administered the oath of office and allowed the house to pass a vote of confidence even though the matter is sub-judice.

Of course, one has not heard the last in this sordid game of thrones being played in the state. The Supreme Court is to pronounce its judgment on the original appeal of the Shiv Sena asking to disqualify 16 MLAs. If the court does find ground to disqualify them, it will add more complications to an already squirmy situation. That too may not be the end of the story. The matter of the party whips may also end in courts. Moreover, the courts may not be spared to decide who the real Shiv Sena is. Whatever the decision, it will have long lasting implications for state politics and the democratic and constitutional values of our country.

Unfortunately for the constitution, none of the democratic pillars have earned any credit in this unseemly affair: the legislature, the governor, the media and even the judiciary. The dice will again be rolled before the courts and perhaps the Election Commission for deciding the fate of this government. The experience so far does not give scope for optimism of any sort. Maharashtra had never expected to see such a fraud played on its people.  Whatever the outcomes, one thing is certain: Eknath Shinde will surely learn one day that he tripped on what was behind him: BJP’s lust for power.

'Alibaba and Chalis Chor' are a volatile group comprising dissatisfied and ambitious individuals. Those who are scared of the dreaded central agencies may acquiese but some others would be waiting to extract their pound of flesh in the formation of the ministry. The new dispensation will, sooner or later, flounder on dissension and the state may be pushed towards holding a mid-term election. The people of Maharashtra will have a chance to settle scores with those who are arraigned against it.