Vol. XLIII No. 13 March 31, 2019

Agrarian Crisis: Promises Betrayed-Part 1

Vijoo Krishnan

ELECTION Manifesto of BJP(2014) had declared that “BJP commits highest priority to agricultural growth, increase in farmer's income and rural development”. The five years of BJP rule proves to be a period of betrayal of promises.


Agricultural growth has been fairly volatile over the last five years falling by 0.2 per cent for 2013-14 to 2014-15, inching up by 0.6 per cent for 2014-15 to 2015-16 and hovering around 2.7 per cent according to provisional figures for 2017-18 to 2018-19. These are shockingly low levels that adversely impact farm incomes as well as ability of the peasantry to take credit for investing in their land holdings. 2015-16 to 2016-17 showed 6.3 per cent and provisional figures of 2016-17 to 2017-18 showed 5 per cent growth. There are questions about this data too as the Government showed high growth rates even after demonetisation.

Agricultural output grew at only 2.7 per cent during the last October-December quarter which is the lowest in 11 quarters. This growth rate in real terms also did not lead to a corresponding growth in farm incomes. Even more significant than the low increase at constant prices is the fact that the growth in “nominal” terms at current prices is the lowest for any quarter as per the CSO’s new 2011-12 base year series at just 2.04 per cent in comparison to the real GVA growth of 2.67 per cent. It is also the worst since the minus 1.1 per cent rate recorded way back in October-December 2004 (based on the then 1999-2000 GDP series). 


Far from ending farm suicides they are still alarmingly high despite efforts by certain states to fudge data and paint a rosy picture. Over 36,000 farm suicides were reported in the first 3 years of the BJP government and it has not released data for the last two years. BJP ruled Maharashtra with 11,956 farm suicides accounted for nearly one-third of the total. A glaring difference in the NCRB data on farm suicides in Punjab and the data generated in surveys by universities in Punjab has emerged. While NCRB figures show 459 suicides in Punjab in 3 years from 2014 onwards the door to door survey shows more than a thousand farm suicides every year. Bengal showed zero suicides in 2015 and 2016 while Bihar showed zero suicides in 2016 which is not the ground reality. Despite the gross underreporting the farm suicide figures remain very high.


Indiscriminate acquisition of land to promote corporate interests throwing to winds food security concerns and farmer’s interests has become the norm. Lakhs of acres of fertile multi-cropped land are under the threat of acquisition for real estate purposes and in the name of development activities. The drive to grab farm land has been accompanied by an attack on the cattle wealth of the peasantry. The cattle economy is being hit like never before through restrictions on cattle trade in the name of protection of the cow and barbaric attacks and killing of Muslim and dalit dairy farmers and cattle rearers as well as dependents on cattle for their livelihood by armed vigilante groups calling themselves Gaurakshaks or protectors of the cow. The peasantry who used to sell cattle in times of crisis or to buy new ones is constrained by the atmosphere of fear generated by these groups. The menace of stray cattle has become another cause of income losses to the peasantry as they are rampantly destroying crops. Free Trade Agreements being negotiated at a feverish pace by the government also will adversely affect the cattle economy.


On ensuring minimum of 50 per cent profits over cost of production (as per Swaminathan Commission recommendation), the BJP government went back on this popular promise and on February 20, 2015 it filed an affidavit in the Supreme Court that it was not possible to increase the minimum support price (MSP) on the basis of input cost plus 50 per cent as it would “distort the market”. Recently, the government has claimed that it was already giving MSP over 50 per cent more than cost of production. This is a massive hoax because they are using A2+FL+50 per cent formula instead of the promised C2+50 per cent. The difference between the two ranges from 32 per cent for paddy to 34 per cent for jowar and maize and 39 per cent for arhar on an average – farmers are losing that much. In most crops, A2+FL+50 per cent price would be 40 per cent below the C2+50 per cent level. In most cases the farmers are not even getting Rs 80 for every Rs 100 spent. The much-hyped announcements were also not accompanied by assured procurement and, in most states, even this MSP remained only notional as government agencies did not procure the crops from farmers who were forced to sell their produce at prices lower than MSP. According to a calculation, the government’s refusal to redeem its promise of giving 50 per cent profit over cost price,  farmers are estimated to have lost nearly Rs 3 lakh crore for major crops in kharif and rabi 2017-18 – this being the difference between actual prices farmers got and what they would have got had Modi kept his word.


In September, 2018 the BJP Government came up with the Pradhan Mantri Annadata Aay Sanrakshan Abhiyan (PM-AASHA) with the claim that it would ensure remunerative prices and protect farmers’ income through a combination of Price Support Scheme (PSS), Price Deficiency Payment Scheme (PDPS) and Pilot of Private Procurement and Stockist Scheme (PPPS). AIKS and other organisations of the peasantry pointed out the hollowness of the scheme at the very beginning and that it was aimed at privatising procurement. The announcement of the Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi (PMKSN) a full five months after the PM-AASHA was announced is also an admission of the abject failure of PM-AASHA scheme. If the Annadata’s income was protected as claimed when PM-AASHA was announced, then the need for PMKSN would not have arisen.

The PMKSN promises Rs 6,000 per year for farmers holding land up to 2 hectares. As per the last agricultural census, there are about 12 crore households having land holdings below 2 hectares. It is, however, noteworthy that not only is agricultural census fraught with many problems, the definition of households used in agricultural censuses is not the same as the definition of family being used in PMKSN. In reality, the number of families operating less than 2 hectares is likely to be more than 12 crores. Further, since land records are being used to identify families having less than 2 hectares of land, this scheme excludes a vast majority of cultivators who are tenant farmers and are not registered in land records. Similarly, a vast majority of adivasi cultivators who do not have land pattas will be excluded from the scheme. Also, the amount promised to be given to each farmer family is too meagre as it amounts to Rs 500/month or less than Rs17/day.

Taking the example of paddy in Bengal, Bihar, Odisha, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh etc., the farmer is forced to sell at Rs1000-1200 per quintal. Even if we take it as Rs1,200 per quintal and if 4 tonnes/hectare is taken as the production, the farmer at best gets Rs 48,000 for the entire yield. At the MSP fixed it should have brought them Rs 70,000 that is a loss of Rs 22,000/hectare. Now consider if the MSP given by Kerala under the LDF government i.e., Rs 2,350 per quintal, the same produce would fetch the farmer Rs 94,000/hectare which is Rs 24,000/hectare higher than what would accrue to a farmer at the centrally fixed MSP and Rs 46,000/hectare higher than what a farmer in states where procurement is almost non-existent will receive for the same produce. Given that the tall claims of doubling farm incomes requires an annual increase of 14.4 per cent which is a far cry from the reality, the PM’s sop of Rs 6,000/year for farmers holding up to two hectares which translates to Rs 17/day cuts no ice with farmers who are losing many times this amount due to the low pricing and near absence of procurement.


Modi had nothing to offer to the largest economic segment in India – the agricultural workers who make up nearly 55 per cent of those involved in agriculture. These are the poorest, most downtrodden people, with a large share of dalits and adivasis. Their key demand for land is of course never mentioned but even their immediate demand of higher wages has been completely ignored by the Modi regime. The situation of agricultural wages is shocking, although landed lobbies keep lamenting about “high” wages. Recent studies have shown that after some rise between 2007-08 to 2014-15, rural wages have been stagnating under Modi rule. The average year-on-year wage growth for December during 2014 to 2018 under the BJP rule worked out to 4.7 per cent in nominal terms and a mere 0.5 per cent in real terms considering the inflation of 4.2 per cent. This is causing immense misery and hardship – but the government has no word of solace, leave aside any relief, to offer.