ELECTIONS to the five state assemblies in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa have been notified.  Of these, in two states, Goa and Punjab, there are governments of the BJP and its allies; in Uttarakhand and Manipur, there are Congress governments; but it is in Uttar Pradesh, where there is a Samajwadi Party government that the most significant electoral battle will be fought. 

In Punjab, the Akali Dal-BJP coalition government is facing a strong anti-incumbency mood with the acute agrarian crisis, rising unemployment, rampant corruption and drug abuse being the hallmarks of the rule of the Badal clan. 

In Uttarakhand, after the central government’s shenanigans in toppling the Harish Rawat government and the judicial intervention to nullify it, the ruling Congress party has to fend off a determined effort by the BJP with recourse to the huge resources that the ruling party at the centre can mobilise. 

In Goa, the BJP-MGP coalition government has been indulging in communal politics. However, just weeks before the election, the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP) has walked out of the coalition.  There is an alternative right coalition consisting of the MGP, Shiv Sena and Goa Suraksha Manch led by a former RSS chief.  A weakened Congress and the AAP are also in the fray.

The situation in Manipur is dire with the two and a half month blockade of the valley still in force.  The ethnic polarisation, which has marked Manipur politics along with the numerous insurgent groups, makes the electoral exercise a fraught one.  The chief minister Ibobi Singh hopes to cash-in on the creation of new districts which has aroused the ire of the United Naga Council which is backed by the NSCN(IM).

It is in Uttar Pradesh that the battle royal will be fought.  The past two assembly elections in 2007 and 2012 produced mandates for single party rule with the BSP government followed by the SP government. The Lok Sabha election of May 2014 also produced a one-sided result with the BJP and its allies winning 73 of the 80 seats and getting a lead in 329 assembly segments out of 403.  The BJP alone polled 42.5 percent of the vote.  It will be a tough task to reverse this lead which is far higher than what the BJP got in Bihar during the Lok Sabha polls.

The fractious quarrel in the SP between Akhilesh Yadav, on the one hand, and Mulayam Singh and his brother Shivpal Yadav, on the other hand, added to the uncertainty of the situation.  However, Akhilesh Yadav has rallied the bulk of the party and legislators and with the Election Commission allotting the bicycle symbol to him, he has emerged in a stronger position.  The proposed alliance with the Congress and possibly the Rashtriya Lok Dal of Ajit Singh would put this combination in a better position to take on the BJP. However, unlike Bihar, this is not a “Mahagathbandhan” where the two major parties, RJD and JD(U) got together. In Uttar Pradesh, the BSP is not part of this alliance. 

The BJP has not projected anyone as its chief ministerial candidate in Uttar Pradesh.  Like in Bihar, it is relying on projecting Modi and stitching up the caste arithmetic which proved so successful in the 2014 election. However, after the two and a half years of the Modi government at the centre and the palpable failure to deliver jobs and development, how far the Modi factor will work remains to be seen.  The problems created by the withdrawal of 500 and 1,000 rupee notes and its adverse impact on the people will also be in play.

The CPI(M) and the Left parties are not a major force in these five states.  In Punjab, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh, the Left parties are unitedly fighting the elections as an independent force. Apart from putting forth alternative policies, they will conduct a sustained campaign to expose the reactionary communal character of the BJP and the onslaughts unleashed on the people by the Modi government.  All the resources are to be marshaled to defeat the BJP in the forthcoming elections. 

(January 18, 2017)