THE rejection of the historic peace accord signed between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) in a referendum by a wafer thin majority had come as a shock to most Colombians and the international community. A referendum, which was not constitutionally mandated, was held just a few days after the two sides signed the permanent cease fire agreement with much fanfare in Havana on September 26. Opinion polls had shown overwhelming support for the agreement to end the war that has been going on for more than 50 years. Many Colombians, probably thinking that the approval margins would be very high did not bother to cast their votes in the referendum which was held on October 2. Only around 37 per cent of the electorate turned out to vote.

The right wing opposition led by the irascible former president of the country, Alviro Uribe successfully mobilised its core base to cast their ballots against the peace deal. When the votes were counted, 50.2 per cent of those who voted rejected the deal as against 49.8 per cent who said yes. The number of votes separating the yes and no vote was less than 0.5 per cent. In areas affected by the conflict, the vote was overwhelmingly in favor of the peace deal. In urban areas relatively unscathed by the war and where the right wing is strong, the votes went against the peace accord.

To further complicate matters, “Hurricane Mathews”, a category four storm, which hit parts of Colombia hampered voter turnout in many areas. It was one of the powerful hurricanes to hit the Caribbean in recent years. The right wing also channeled the anger of conservative Christian groups by focusing on the current government's liberal views on same sex marriage and tolerance towards LGBT people. The cease fire agreement became mired in other domestic political issues as the referendum campaign gained momentum. Many Colombian commentators and observers have also faulted President Santos's campaign style, noting that he was not very effective in explaining some complicated aspects of the deal, such as transitional justice envisaged for the guerillas, paramilitary and military forces accused of crimes during the long war.

After the impact of the surprise results sunk in, shocked Colombians started congregating on the streets of cities like Bogota to reassert their support for the peace accord. More than 25,000 people turned out in the capital's Plaza Bolivar, to back the peace accord. 70 tents, housing pro-peace activists have sprung up in downtown Bogota. President Santos said that he decided to extend the cease fire after meeting with student leaders in Bogota who had organised the massive rallies following the referendum results. “One of the students reminded me, that in the army and the guerrilla ranks there are young people waiting to see what happens, hoping that they do not have to fire another shot”, Santos said in a televised address. He went on to add that the cease fire could be extended further if the necessity arises.

The civil war in Colombia was the longest running one in Latin America and had proved to be intractable till Juan Manuel Santos was elected president of Colombia in 2010. More than 2,20,000 people have been killed in the conflict so far since the conflict began 42 years ago. More than 5.7 million Colombians have been displaced from their homes as a result of the long running conflict. Another 25, 000 people are among the ranks of the “disappeared”, whose bodies in all probability are lying in unmarked mass graves.

For the last four years, President Santos and the FARC leadership have been holding talks in Havana to bring an end to the conflict. The governments of Cuba and Norway played an important role in effecting a breakthrough in the talks. Venezuela and Chile also gave an important helping hand. It had become evident in the beginning of this year that a durable peace could soon become a reality for the long suffering people of Colombia. The peace agreement is a comprehensive one that addresses important issues like agrarian and political reforms, which were long standing demands of the FARC. The government has made a commitment to build roads and social services to long neglected areas in the rural hinterland.

After the referendum results were out, President Santos quickly offered an olive branch to his opponents led by the former president, Uribe. He also did not waste any time to extend the deadline for the completion of the peace process to the end of December. “I will continue to seek peace till the end of my presidency”, he announced immediately after the referendum results came in. In the second week of October, he also announced that he was going to start talks with the National Liberation Army (ELN), the second biggest Left wing guerrilla group in Colombia after the FARC. President Santos also convened an all party meeting in which his political opponents like Uribe and another former president, Andres Pastrana, were present. 

Uribe and his supporters remain opposed to the very idea of the FARC being allowed back into the political mainstream and its fighters being eventually reintegrated into society. Under the peace agreement, the FARC was guaranteed 10 seats in parliament along with a pledge that it will be allowed to function as a legal political party. The opposition also wants the government to scrap the provision for special courts to try FARC leaders and fighters alleged to have committed serious human rights violations and other crimes. Under the terms of the peace agreement, FARC leaders accused of crimes against humanity will appear before a special peace tribunal to face charges brought by Colombia's Attorney General. They will face effective restrictions on their liberty for up to seven years if found guilty of crimes.

If Uribe and supporters have their way, those rebel commanders accused of such crimes will straight away have to go to jail. The opposition submitted a document “Foundations for a National Peace Accord” to the president spelling out their demands for “substantial corrections” to the peace agreement, including a demand that the projects the government has promised in impoverished rural areas should not come at the cost of large landowners and agribusiness interests.. There was also a demand for the formation of a “major national coalition” to recognise the will of the voters.

Such preconditions will of course be unacceptable to the FARC leadership. All the same, the FARC leadership has been quick to emphasize that as of now the peace process is irreversible despite the negative message the referendum has sent. In a joint statement issued with the government, the FARC leadership reasserted that the peace process will continue to move forward and the final peace agreement will be fully adhered to. The FARC has reiterated that the referendum result does not have any legal basis and in no way overrides the peace agreement. The UN has already sent observer teams to monitor the cease fire and take custody of the weapons that will be surrendered by the FARC fighters. The FARC leadership has also ruled out any return to the negotiating table. Uribe and his supporters are meanwhile insistent that the referendum results have to be respected. If the opponents of the peace accord remain unrelenting, then there is a very real chance of the peace process collapsing in the not too distant future. If it happens, Colombians and the international community will hold one man mainly responsible – Alviro Uribe.

Uribe, a onetime darling of the Washington political establishment, is himself responsible for much of the violence the conflict has generated since the late 1990's. Uribe served two terms in office starting from 2002. It was the Clinton administration under “Plan Colombia” which provided billions of dollars to the Colombian government to fight the FARC and another smaller liberation group –-the National Liberation Front (ELN). The stated goal of Plan Colombia was to fight the menace of narco trafficking but today the United States has access to nine Colombian military bases. The bases, according to a US air force document, provide “opportunity for full spectrum operations throughout South America, against threats not only from the drug trade, but also from anti-US governments from across the region”. 

The United States had become the biggest market for cocaine produced in Colombia since the 1970's. The Uribe family has long standing connections with right wing paramilitaries which are aligned with narco traffickers. The left wing guerrilla groups also used revenues from the lucrative narcotics trade to sustain their movements. With the help of the American military, the Colombian armed forces in alliance with right wing paramilitaries, managed to eliminate many senior FARC functionaries and shrink the areas that were under the control of the guerillas. Santos, was defense minister under Uribe, during the most successful phase of the government's military campaign.

Santos was however aware of the ground realities, knowing fully well that a comprehensive military defeat of the FARC was unachievable in the long run. After becoming president, he decided to opt for the peace track much to the anger of his former mentor, Uribe, who accused him of surrendering to the forces of “Castro-Chavismo”. Despite the referendum loss, President Santos's personal popularity ratings remain high. Now they have received a further boost, after he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize two days after the referendum results were announced. He will have the privilege of being one of the two Colombians to have ever received a Nobel award.

For reasons only known to Nobel Committee, FARC was not allowed to share the award. In previous Peace Prizes given under similar circumstances, like the Israel Egypt and Oslo accords, the prize had been shared.

Roderigo Londono, the FARC leader, in a statement from Havana, acknowledged that the long running conflict had opened “deep wounds” but stressed the necessity for all Colombians “to join forces and together apply healing balm to the wounds”. FARC's chief diplomat, Ivan Marquez, has said that the Nobel Peace Prize will help President Santos “bring to completion the ratification of the peace process”. The most important thing however, he added, “is that the president find a way to realize the Colombians dream for a dignified existence”.

On November 24, the Colombian government and FARC signed a slightly reworded peace deal yet again. This time only parliamentary approval is needed, where the governing coalition has a majority. Public opinion polls had consistently shown that a vast majority was in favour of a deal. It was public apathy, coupled with the government's mishandling of the referendum campaign which had brought about the surprise earlier result.