EVEN at the fag end of the electioneering, the UDF is far behind the LDF in public and door-to-door campaigning. The BJP has also lost its confidence to get a threshold in Kerala legislature. As the campaign for the May 16 assembly polls enters the final phase, the poll debate is getting increasingly dominated by the LDF.

From what one sees and hears on different media, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is placed at a distant third when it comes to issues being thrown up and being discussed by the main campaigners.

The opposition’s main campaign theme is corruption, forcing even some senior Congress leaders to admit in private that the opposition attack has already done serious harm to them.

The opposition leaders have been drawing huge crowds at their meetings. CPI(M) general secretary Sitaram Yechury, Polit Bureau members Prakash Karat, Brinda Karat, Manik Sarkar, Subhashini Ali, A K Padmanabhan, B V Raghavulu, Pinarayi Vijayan, M A baby, Party state secretary Kodiyeri Balakrishnan and opposition leader VS Achuthanadan have been in the campaign in the last two weeks.  With the chief minister filing a defamation suit against the opposition leader and the latter daring the chief minister to do whatever he could to stop him from speaking his mind, the poll debate over the past few days has become too hot.

Series of mid-poll issues appear to be frustrating the UDF election managers, preventing them from focusing on core issues during electioneering.

The ruling coalition has been forced to shift its attention from its main campaign plank and address mid-election issues that have cropped up beginning with the controversy over some of the cabinet decisions relating to conversion of land.

A few of the cabinet decisions ran into trouble forcing the government to withdraw them though the reasons that chief minister Oommen Chandy gave did not seem to be convincing. The controversy became hot because the opposition to it came from within the Congress and the UDF. Later, the cabinet decision to approve liquor permits to three hotels that had secured five star status also found the UDF on the back foot.

It found its much-touted liquor policy facing a credibility crisis, with allegations that the move to give bar licences to hotels that had upgraded their status to five star categories was a backdoor attempt to bring the closed bars back.

The government withdrew the move and made it harsher by including a proviso that upgraded bars would not be eligible for licences.

The UDF leadership is now caught in the row over the brutal murder of a dalit girl in Perumbavoor, with the LDF going all-out to make it into an issue and focusing on the lapses of the state government. Even after two weeks police is groping in the dark without a lead in the case.

Home minister Ramesh Chennithala and chief minister Oommen Chandy’s appeal to political parties not to politicise the case, however, had no impact, forcing the UDF and particularly the Congress party to go on the defensive.

The UDF election managers have also had to face a strong CPI(M) campaign of an alleged tie up between the Congress and the BJP in the elections. Chief minister Oommen Chandy’s Kuttanad statement that the fight is between the UDF and the BJP in some places has landed the Congress-led alliance in a spot, forcing Congress Working Committee member AK Antony to indirectly warn his party colleagues that anyone who goes soft on the BJP will have to regret later.

Chandy has drawn flak from the opposition for his statement which, the opposition says, is intended to keep the BJP in good humour and enter into a quid pro quo arrangement with that party. Rattled by the implications of the statement, KPCC president VM Sudheeran was quick to contradict him and go on record that the fight in the state is essentially between the UDF and the LDF.

CPI(M) state secretary Kodiyeri Balakrishnan and P B member Pinarayi Vijayan accused the chief minister of trying to show the way to BJP, which had hit a dead end in the state.

Leader of the opposition, VS Achuthanandan also came down heavily on Chandy accusing him of having publicly admitted his party’s secret liaison with the BJP.

Sitaram Yechury alleged that there was “some sort of match-fixing” between the UDF and the BJP in Kerala, but the phenomenon had been going on for some time.

“When the Paravur temple tragedy happened, I was in Chennai. But I chose not to visit the site the next day, as it would have upset the relief operations. That was the priority, as VIP visits are distracting on such occasions. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, however, did not have the same wisdom. It later turned out that the administration was against the PM’s visit, but the Kerala chief minister hailed it and appreciated Mr Modi,” he said, adding that the Congress and the BJP had entered into a kind of match-fixing in some constituencies, as they had done in the past. “After all, (cricketer) Sreesanth is their candidate,” he said. Expressing confidence that the LDF would wrest power, he said the state needed effective governance to bring about people-oriented development and to curtail the menace of communalism.

CPI(M) Polit Bureau member Prakash Karat has said that the only way for the BJP to enter the Kerala assembly would be through an understanding with the UDF. Addressing the media, Karat said: “Unfortunately, the record of the Congress does not inspire confidence, to put it mildly. The Congress party does not believe in it (taking on the BJP), neither has it the resources, politically or ideologically, to take on the BJP. In Kerala’s context, only the LDF can take on the BJP.”

He said there was tremendous rise in communal polarisation, tension, and attack on minorities wherever the BJP was in power. “Kerala cannot accept communal polarisation,” he said and stressed the need for isolating the BJP.

He said what the LDF wanted was not just the UDF’s defeat but also the former’s return to power and added that only a change in policies could end the increasing agrarian crisis in the state and put in place an economic policy that would provide employment opportunities.

Recently half a dozen pre-poll surveys were out all of them predicting a clear victory for the LDF. Asianet news, a leading news channel predicts 77 to 82 seats for the LDF, in the 140 member house. India T V predicts 89, Mathrubhoomi TV 74, Kala Kaumudi edupress survey gives 98 to 102 seats for the LDF. Majority of the surveys predict zero seats for the BJP led alliance.