IT is ten years since the Indo-US nuclear deal was announced on July 18, 2005. As is well known, the CPI(M) and the Left had strongly opposed this nuclear deal seeing it as a crucial part of the wide-ranging strategic alliance which the Manmohan Singh government was seeking to forge with the United States of America. The opposition to every aspect of the deal stands vindicated ten years later.

SPECIOUS

CLAIMS

The UPA government had claimed that the nuclear deal would bring about a major transformation in the spheres of energy, acquiring technology and strategic benefits for the country. The Congress party proclaimed that due to the deal cheap electricity would be available to every home; the UPA government claimed that it would mark the end of “nuclear apartheid” and technology sanctions against India. Fantastic claims of India importing 40,000 MW of nuclear power by 2020 were made.

All this has proved to be illusionary. In reality, the United States under President Bush took the initiative for the civil nuclear agreement so that India could be drawn tightly into its geo-political strategy for Asia. For that the United States wanted a strategic military alliance and make India its strategic ally in the region. On the US side the additional benefit was the prospect of commercial sales of US nuclear reactors to India.

Consequent to the finalisation and implementation of the nuclear agreement, there has been hardly any augmentation of the nuclear power capacity in India. In 2005, India had 2770 MW of installed nuclear power generation capacity which was 2.2 percent of the total power generation capacity. In 2015, the nuclear power generation capacity had risen to 5780 MW but this is only 2.1 percent of the total generation capacity. The increase in nuclear power capacity is mainly due to the commissioning of the Koodankulam Unit I power plant which has a capacity of 1000 MW. The Koodankulam plant was the result of an agreement signed with Russia much before the Indo-US nuclear deal and therefore cannot be seen as an outcome of this agreement.

COSTLY

FIASCO

The strategy was to import foreign nuclear power plants after the Indo-US nuclear deal. This has proved to be a costly fiasco – a fact pointed out by the Left at the time of the negotiations for the nuclear deal. The Jaitapur nuclear project is to import the French company Areva’s new EPR nuclear reactors. The cost of importing these reactors are prohibitive and the price of the power generated from these reactors is so high that it can be utilised only if the State subsidises the tariff rate. There are innumerable questions about the viability of these plants given the fact that not a single of these reactors have been commissioned yet anywhere in the world, including France.

The UPA government had committed to buy 10,000 MW of nuclear reactors from the USA as part of the quid pro quo for the deal. It had also promised to bring legislation to indemnify the suppliers. However, the Civil Nuclear Liability law passed by the Indian parliament did not conform to either the UPA government’s or the US administration’s expectations. Drawing from the experience of the Bhopal gas tragedy, parliament ensured that suppliers liability is also included in the law. This has proved to be an obstacle for the US companies which are to sell reactors to India for the nuclear parks in Kowada (Andhra Pradesh) and Mithi Virdi (Gujarat). The UPA government and now the Modi government is trying hard to circumvent the suppliers liability clause to appease the American companies. The latest effort in this direction was unveiled during the Obama visit. An insurance pool of Rs 1500 crores will be set up by Indian insurance companies to indemnify the supplier companies. But the commercialisation of the deal is still to take place.

The idea of installing these imported reactors, six together, in nuclear parks has also raised serious safety concerns after the Fukushima experience. There is popular resistance to the installation of the imported nuclear power plants in all the sites. Yet the Modi government continues with the folly perpetrated by the UPA government.

NO FULL NUCLEAR

COOPERATION

As far as the claim that civil nuclear cooperation will be ensured by the deal, that myth has also been exploded. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had assured parliament in August 2006 that the deal will ensure “full civil nuclear cooperation” – ranging from nuclear fuel, nuclear reactors, to reprocessing spent fuel, ie, all aspects of a complete nuclear fuel cycle. It was clear from the 123 agreement signed that such full nuclear cooperation was not assured. Instead, the United States has in concert with the Nuclear Suppliers Group banned export of all “enrichment and reprocessing technology” to India, even with full international safeguards. The technology denial regime continues. Under the defence cooperation agreement too, India has failed to get restrictions on sensitive high technology lifted.

FOREIGN POLICY

COMPROMISED

The most dangerous aspect of the nuclear deal was the conditions imposed on India’s foreign policy and strategic autonomy. The Hyde Act adopted by the US Congress, which opened the way for the nuclear deal, clearly stated that such cooperation with a non-NPT signatory like India can occur if “the country has a functioning and uninterrupted democratic system of government, has a foreign policy that is congruent to that of the United States and is working with the United States in key foreign policy initiatives related to non-proliferation”. This “congruence in foreign policy” became evident soon after with India’s changed stand on the Iran nuclear issue. The United States had demanded that India align with it to isolate Iran on the nuclear issue. India complied and voted twice in the IAEA against Iran. It was the second vote which opened the way for the UN to impose sanctions on Iran.

RETREAT

ON IRAN

The shameful volte face on Iran by the UPA government was a necessary condition for the nuclear deal to proceed as the then US Ambassador to India David Mulford, arrogantly proclaimed. India’s shift to become a strategic ally of the United States accelerated with the nuclear deal. The Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline project was scuttled by the Manmohan Singh government on the demand of the Bush administration. After the sanctions imposed by the US and the EU on oil exports from Iran, India cut down its oil purchases from Iran drastically, even though buying Iranian oil was a commercially much better proposition.

It is ironical that the Indian government which faithfully followed the US diktat to isolate Iran is faced with a situation where an entente between United States and Iran is underway. After prolonged negotiations, the P5 (Permanent Members of the Security Council) plus Germany and Iran have come to an agreement on Iran’s civilian nuclear technology. This will bring about a major change in West Asia with the potential of Iran playing the role of a major power when the economic sanctions are lifted and its oil exports resumed to the normal level.

The Modi government’s response to this agreement is curious to say the least. The MEA spokesperson provisionally welcomed the agreement and stated that a final view can be taken after studying the text of the agreement. Here the Modi government is being more loyal to the king. Such a cautious response is also due to the intense hostility of Israel to this agreement. India weakening its ties with Iran, to its own detriment, in order to appease the United States is a good example of how the nuclear deal impinged upon an independent foreign policy.

TIGHTENING

EMBRACE

For the Americans the nuclear deal was only a bait to entrap India into a larger alliance in which the defence relationship was the key. The nuclear deal followed the Indo-US Defence Framework Agreement which was signed in June 2005. Under this agreement, the United States has now become the largest supplier of arms to India. That defence agreement has now been renewed for another ten years by the Modi government, which is not willing to even divulge the text of the agreement.

India is now saddled with the prospect of importing costly light water reactors which will produce expensive power way beyond the reach of the ordinary people. It is also subjecting the country to unforeseen environmental hazards and risking the people’s safety and well-being. In continuation, the Modi government is assiduously pursuing a pro-US foreign policy and strategic approach which puts India at odds with even its BRICS partners. The adverse consequences of the iniquitous nuclear deal have been extremely high.