Modi Govt's Foreign Policy
Yohannan Chemarapally
AS the travel logs show, Narendra Modi has been spending considerable time in foreign climes. On his many visits abroad, he has steadfastly refused to take the external affairs minister, Sushma Swaraj along. Important foreign policy decisions now seems to be exclusively formulated within the confines of the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO). This trend had started during the tenure of the previous government after it had gone on overdrive to secure the US-India nuclear deal. But in those days, the foreign office at least provided serious inputs that were acted upon. Modi's one year in office has been marked by ad hoc policy decisions and highly personalised diplomacy. The foreign secretary was not allowed to complete her term. Modi is very comfortable on his foreign jaunts especially when he meets the Indian diaspora. The Indian prime minister has been going out of his way to cultivate the non-resident Indian (NRI). If the BJP has its way, very soon the NRI's will be given the right to vote.
On his trips abroad, Prime Minister Modi treats the NRI's as a vote bank. On at least two occasions now, he has criticised the former UPA government on foreign soil. During his last trip abroad, he went to the extent of claiming that it is only under his leadership that Indians have become proud of their nationality. “Earlier, you felt ashamed of being born an Indian. Now you feel proud to represent the country. Indians abroad had all hoped for a change in government last year”, he told an audience of cheering Indians in Shanghai. He continued with the theme at his next port of call, Seoul, where he once again addressed NRI's. “There was a time when people used to say that we don't know what sins we committed in our past lives that we were born in Hindustan”. The decision to summarily call off foreign secretary level talks with Pakistan and his conduct during the visit of President Barack Obama are some other illustrations.
RELATIONS WITH
PAKISTAN
After sweeping the elections, Modi sprung a pleasant surprise by inviting his Pakistani counterpart, Nawaz Sharif, to his swearing in ceremony along with the leaders of the other SAARC nations. Though Modi on the campaign trail had spewed vitriol on the Pakistan government, Sharif, despite the reservations expressed by the country's security establishment, had accepted the invitation. After his resounding win at the polls, Modi had said that his major foreign policy priority would be India's immediate neighbourhood. But after the initial bonhomie, India finds itself once again on familiar terrain in the region. After New Delhi called off the foreign secretary level talks, there has been very little forward movement in ties with Pakistan. The LoC has been peaceful for the last few months but there was a month long escalation in cross border firing prior to the state elections in Maharashtra and other states earlier in the year.
The precondition that India has imposed on Pakistan has made it difficult for the resumption of comprehensive peace talks between the two governments. New Delhi still insists that Pakistani diplomats should not meet with the representatives of the Hurriyat for consultations on the Kashmir issue prior to the talks. It was the Pakistani High Commissioner's meeting with the Hurriyat that had made the Modi government cancel the talks at the eleventh hour. The diplomatic rap on the knuckles had undermined Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif domestically. The Modi government now wants a resumption of the dialogue process. It will be a difficult task as the Pakistani side continues to insist that Kashmir remain the core issue. Pakistani diplomats have said that they will keep on consulting with the separatist Hurriyat leadership.
In India's immediate neighbourhood, as the SAARC summit last year revealed, India stood isolated on key issues. The majority of SAARC members had in fact wanted to consider China's application to be a full member of the grouping favourably. This year, there have been some diplomatic gains for Delhi in the South Asian region. The Modi government has been given credit for regime change through the ballot box earlier this year in Sri Lanka, though New Delhi claims that it had no role to play in the surprising electoral outcome. It was apparent that New Delhi was not too happy with the former President Mahinda Rajapaksa on a variety of issues. He was perceived as being too close to China and impervious to commitments towards the Tamil minority. New Delhi had protested when a Chinese submarine had docked in Colombo. The new government led by Maithripala Sirisena has yet to consolidate itself but a new bonhomie in bilateral ties is clearly visible. During the Sri Lankan president's visit to India in February, the two countries signed a civilian nuclear cooperation agreement, the first ever by two South Asian countries.
The biggest achievement by the Modi government in the foreign policy field so far is the land swap deal with Bangladesh in May this year. The deal was to have been signed during the last years of UPA-2 government but it was scuppered by the Trinamool Congress government in Bengal and the BJP, which was then in the opposition. The Sheikh Hasina led government, despite its closeness to New Delhi, was perturbed at the delay in the implementation of the accords which were signed with the Indian government. The Teesta water sharing accord has yet to be implemented.
At the same time, India's diplomatic clout with other SAARC countries has diminished. The government in Maldives which is currently running roughshod over the opposition and has incarcerated the former President Mohammed Nausheed, seems to be moving away from the special relationship with India. Relations with Nepal are good but there are lingering suspicions about India among sections of the establishment, notably among the Left wing parties. Even India's quick humanitarian response to the devastating earthquake in April this year while widely appreciated came in for criticism for the manner in which the relief and rescue missions were projected in the Indian media.
There has been a diplomatic setback for New Delhi in Afghanistan after the departure of Hamid Karzai from the presidency last year. The new incumbent, Ashraf Ghani has made it clear that he prefers stronger ties with the US, China and Pakistan. His priority is to kick start peace talks with the Taliban and at the same time shore up the security situation in his country. Pakistan and China are helping to broker talks. For the first time, the Afghan Intelligence Services have started officially cooperating with Pakistan's ISI. The Afghan president only visited India in April. Before that he had visited China, Pakistan, the United States and Iran. The Afghan president has said that he does not want his country's territory to be used for proxy conflicts between third countries.
PRO-WESTERN
TILT
Though the NDA under Modi is basically continuing with the UPA's foreign policy agenda, the BJP's right wing ideology has made the present government's pro-western tilt even more pronounced. The Indian government is tacitly siding with the American led alliance in the territorial disputes in the South China Sea. The joint statement issued during the American president's visit to India talked about the need to ensure “the freedom of navigation and overflight – especially in the South China Sea”. The Chinese have strongly denied that the territorial dispute poses any threat to the freedom of navigation and point out that it is one of the busiest waterways in the world. In the joint statement on the shared vision of the two countries on the Asia-Pacific region, the two leaders “agreed to develop a road map that leverages our respective efforts to increase ties among Asian powers, enabling both our nations to better respond” to the emerging economic, diplomatic and strategic challenges in the region. During his visit to Japan, the Indian prime minister openly talked about an “expansionist China”.
It is therefore not surprising that the Chinese side, while keen to strengthen political and strategic relations, is also wary of India's long term intentions. They are particularly concerned about the Modi government's decision to re-start the trilateral military exercises involving the Indian, American and Japanese navies in the Indian Ocean region. Before Modi's recent visit to China, the Indian government taking into view China's strong displeasure, postponed a scheduled trilateral military exercise involving the Indian, American and the Japanese navies. But by the end of its first year in office, the Modi government has realised that it needs to keep Beijing humoured. For Modi's so called “Make in India” campaign to succeed, he desperately needs foreign direct investments. Only China has the cash surpluses necessary to fulfill Modi's ambitious neo-liberal dreams. China has indicated that it is willing to play ball provided India does not get into an even deeper strategic embrace with the United States. India after some initial dilly dallying has joined the China sponsored Asian Infrastructural Development Bank (AIDB). Washington was putting pressure on its allies to stay out of the Bank which it sees as a challenge to the World Bank. Among major countries, only the United States, Japan and Canada have opted to stay out of the AIDB. India however has so far not embraced China's Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road projects. The interlinked projects aim to connect Asian countries by putting into place new transport and energy infrastructure. The Modi government instead is focusing on its own “Act East” policy which aims at fostering closer links with Southeast and East Asian countries. The Modi government has announced “Project Mausam” aimed at reviving India's historical maritime, cultural and trade ties with Southeast Asia.
As yet, the concept of “strategic autonomy” in India's foreign affairs has not been completely given up by the Modi government. New Delhi has been assuring visiting leaders from countries like Russia and China that it is still in favour of “a multipolar world”. The Indian prime minister during his tour of China emphasised on the important role the country is playing in grouping like BRICS and the RIC. Indian officials have said that the presence of Indian President Pranab Mukherjee in Moscow on the 70th anniversary of the Great Patriotic War was another example of “strategic autonomy” in foreign policy at play. Western leaders had boycotted the anniversary. The Chinese and Indian presidents were among the 30 heads of State who deigned to attend the historical anniversary.
Relations with Moscow under the NDA government continue to be warm though the Russians have not failed to notice the general pro-western tilt in the foreign policy. Most of the multi-billion dollar defense deals that India has inked in the last one year have been with the United States, Israel and France. Modi's decision to okay the purchase of 36 Rafale fighter planes during his visit to France has come in for a lot of criticism from Indian defense analysts and military experts as there was nothing in the deal about transfer of technology to India. Till recently the Rafale was not able to find a market. Now this year, Egypt, Qatar and India have all decided to go in for the expensive French fighter plane and in the process reviving the French aerospace industry, not Modi's “make in India” vision. The Russians feel that they are not being given a level playing field these days in India as far as defense procurement is concerned.
ROLE IN
WEST ASIA
In the West Asia region, which is critical to India's economy and security, the Modi government has adopted a comparatively low profile. It followed Washington's diktat on sanctions against Iran. Now with the US on the verge of lifting sanctions on Iran, the Modi government has announced that it would seriously start looking into the joint development of the Iran's Chabahar port in the Persian Gulf. The nearby Chinese developed Gwadar port in Pakistan is poised to become an important transport hub for goods and hydro carbons from Central Asia. India also wants a slice of the pie as Chabahar will provide access to Indian goods to the Central Asian market and beyond. Otherwise, the NDA government seeks to be looking at the region with benign neglect. The president of India in his first speech outlining the new government's priorities forgot to mention the region in its entirety.
With large parts of the region in turmoil, the Indian government has been forced to react. During the inhuman bombing of Gaza by the Israelis, the Indian government advised both sides to exercise caution. Modi, like his parent organisation, the RSS has a soft corner for the State of Israel. He made it a point of catching up with old friend Benjamin Netanyahu on the sidelines of the UN summit last year. Intelligence sharing and defense cooperation have been further intensified between the two countries. The rise of the Islamic State (IS) in Iraq and Syria may create long term problems for India. Some young men from India who joined the IS have already been killed in the region. The fate of the 40 Indians who were captured by the IS when it overran Mosul is no longer shrouded in much of a mystery. There were reports last year itself that the Indians from Punjab were lined up and killed by an IS firing squad. One man, an eye witness to the killings, it turns out had given this information to the Indian government soon after the massacre occurred last year. The Indian government is still insisting that they are alive but has provided no proof to back up its claims. The Indian government was however quick in sending ships and planes to rescue Indian citizens stranded in Yemen in April this year after the Saudi government launched an unprovoked attack on the country.