Budget 2014-2015: A Modi-Manmohan Joint Venture
Brinda Karat
THE first sentence of the new finance minister's budget speech was "The people of India have decisively voted for changeā¦" However the first opportunity presented to the new government to signal the beginning of the expected that they promised did not happen. When the Left parties had said that as far as economic policies are concerned the Congress and the BJP are two sides of the same coin, both parties had dismissed this critique as Left propaganda. But the first budget of the Modi Sarkar substantiates the Left critique in no uncertain terms. Clearly when Modi campaigned for a Congress free India, he was talking about Congress individuals not about policies.
This budget makes a mockery of the slogan of " sab ka saath sab ka vikas" ( with everyone, for everyone).The new finance minister, Arun Jaitley said as much when he decried "populism," which in the dictionary of the corporate world means any schemes or projects which direct national resources towards fulfilling the needs of the poor. The budget presented by the new finance minister is a continuation from where Chidambram left off, both in its fundamental policy thrust and in its skewed priority in allocations.
Chidambram had also adopted the deceitful practice of not spending even the inadequate allocations he made. The gap between the allocation and the actual expenditure became an instrument to control the deficit, while permitting the announcement of grandiose schemes. To illustrate, a sum of 1000 crore rupees had been allocated for the Nirbhaya fund, but there were zero expenditures. In the fiscal year 2013-14, the unspent amount in Plan expenditure was as high as 80,000 crore rupees. Jaitely has conveniently used the lower revised estimates to conceal his own woefully inadequate allocations. It is to be seen whether at the end of this fiscal, even this lowered amount allocated is actually spent.
This feature of fiscal fundamentalism adopted by UPA remains the cornerstone of NDA policy. Translated into the every day experience of people, this basically means that the government will not expand its expenditures to meet their needs because it claims it cannot spend more than what its revenues are. However it does not want to take the logical step of increasing its revenues by raising the tax rates for those who can afford it and therefore it traps the country in its closed circular argument.
The total plan expenditure in this budget is 575 lakh crores rupees compared to the budget estimate last year of 555.32 lakh crore rupees. Factoring in an inflation rate of seven per cent, this constitutes a cut of four per cent in real terms.
There are two aspects to the impact of reduced plan expenditure.
The first aspect is that it directly hits those sectors which affect people's lives the most such as funds for rural housing, provision of drinking water and of sanitation which require a big increase in allocations. It is unbelievable but true that the allocation for provision of drinking water and sanitation of 15, 266.85 crore rupees made by Jaitley has been enhanced by the princely sum of just one crore rupees over the 2013-2014 budget! Obviously drinking water and sanitation are less of a priority than the statue of Sardar Patel in Modi's Ahmedabad for which the finance minister has generously allotted 200 crore rupees.
Equally disturbing is the denial of any increased expenditure on the MGNREGA programme. The ominous signs which were evident when two BJP chief ministers publicly attacked the scheme, have been reflected in the budget which has reduced the funds available in real terms. With a drought being predicted, a huge expansion of the programme to provide drought relief to the 60 per cent agriculture-dependent working people of our country was essential. But the 33,000 crore rupee allocation made by Chidambram which itself was a reduced allocation, has been essentially repeated by this budget. This means that instead of creation of jobs we are heading towards a destruction of jobs.
The government is also the largest employer of women albeit on terms entirely unfavorable to them. Today more than 50 lakh scheme workers, mainly women, fulfill responsibilities equal to those of government employee but for a pittance instead of a wage. Shamefully, the budget has nothing for them, not a single paisa increase. How can you have a slogan of beti bachao, beti padhao (save your daughter, educate your daughter) when the basic unit responsible for looking after the girl child in the under five age group, the anganwadi centre, is being starved of funds. There is a cut of 1,100 crore rupees to ICDS compared to the previous budget estimates. Similarly the issue of pension funds for senior citizens, for the disabled, for single women including widows has been totally ignored in this budget.
AN EXERCISE
TO FOOL PEOPLE
The finance minister received loud applause when he stated his aim to fulfill the prime minister's dream of developing infrastructure, especially road connectivity throughout the country. He announced a 38,870 crore allocation to the National Highway Authority and for State roads development including 3000 crore rupees for the north east. A closer look at the figures reveals that far from an improvement this represents a cut in allocations from the earlier allocation of 39,767 crores rupees in budget 2013-2014. For the NE it is brought down by 300 crores. Clearly an exercise to fool people.
The second aspect is that fiscal policies obsessed with maintaining an arbitrarily decided Lakshman Rekha for the deficit, in this case the Chidambram-determined 4.1 per cent, will deprive the economy of the kick start required through massive public investment for employment-led growth. The approach of this budget to resource mobilisation is to open up every sector from defence, to highways and now even real estate to foreign investors and domestic corporates. The plan to push through the raising of FDI in insurance to 49 per cent from the present 26 per cent is actualising the Indo-US Forum demand which was resisted by vast sections of the working people.
Thus the creation of jobs is to be done not through government expenditures but through reliance on foreign and Indian corporates. Chidambram tried this and miserably failed. In spite of all the concessions he gave, the corporates said " dil mange more." In the years between 2004-05 to 2009-10 just 1.1 million more persons found employment. This was the period when the government was giving corporates concession after concession in the name of SEZs, PPP, disinvestment and so on. Although investment by the private sector increased as did their profits, jobs did not, an example of jobless growth. Once again the budget is full of concessions to encourage investment in the manufacturing sector. To pin one's entire strategy for growth and job creation on the corporates as this budget does is to invite disaster.
PRO- BUSINESS
BIAS
The pro- business bias has to be seen in conjunction with the stated moves to dilute the already weak Land Acquisition Act to make takeover of land easier for industry. The emphasis on industrial corridors many of which will go through tribal and Fifth Schedule areas to benefit mining companies, will lead to large-scale elimination of tribal rights and displacement. These are aspects of the budget which are the hidden costs that will have to be paid for by tribals and farmers.
The other big promise was to control prices but the budget will actually increase them. The cuts in petroleum subsidies to the extent of 22,000 crore rupees means that prices of petrol and diesel will increase leading to a cascading impact on other essential commodities. Coming in the wake of the hike in railway fares and freight rates, there will be no relief for the people. At the same time, the budgetary allocations for the food subsidy though increased are not adequate to cover implementation of the new food security law.
There was an alternative but that would have meant a radical change in direction. That path lay in raising taxes on corporates and the rich. But Modi rewarded the corporates for their unstinting support to him by not raising tax on their profits by a single paisa. The revenue from direct taxes is slated to decrease by 22,000 crores. This at a time when India has one of the lowest tax- GDP ratios of 10. 6 per cent among the G 20 countries. In the last year the amount of tax concessions reflected in the amount of tax foregone had increased to 5.72 lakh crore rupees, the major share of it being concessions to corporates and the richer sections.
Instead, for revenue mobilisation, the Jaitley budget also targets disinvestment in PSUs with the target set at 55,000 crore rupees. Chidambram's also had a high disinvestment target of which he could collect around 21,000 crore rupees because the corporates wanted the price of the shares they were buying in the PSUs to be even lower. These policies are disastrous for the economy and will be resisted.
The prime minister insults the intelligence of the poor by describing the budget as new hope for the poor. This is a budget that aims to take liberalisation and privatisation on the fast track and will directly adversely impact on the interests of the poor.