Vol. XLI No. 47 November 19, 2017
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The “Quadrilateral” Trap for India

Prakash Karat

THE quadrilateral alliance between the United States, Japan, Australia and India is once again taking shape.  During the recent ASEAN Summit in Manila, on the sidelines, a meeting of officials of the four countries was held.  Later, during the course of the Summit, Prime Minister Narendra Modi held meetings separately with the leaders of the four countries. 

The official-level meeting of the four participant countries did not issue a joint statement.  Each country issued a statement explaining the outcome of the meeting.  But the common theme in all the four statements was the agreed decision to keep the Indo-Pacific region open and free for commerce and navigation and to prevent any threat to the peace and stability of the region.  Thus the express purpose of countering China’s growing strength and influence was evident. 

The quadrilateral alliance between the four “democracies” in the Asia-Pacific region has been pursued steadfastly by the United States of America. It was mooted the first time by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan in 2007, ten years ago.  At that time, in May 2007, at an ASEAN Regional Summit in Manila, the leaders of the four countries had met.  This was preceded by a joint naval exercise of the USA, Japan and India. 

However, this four nation tie-up did not take off because of China’s objections.  The Chinese government had given a demarche to the governments of the four countries asking the purpose of such an alliance and expressing its disapproval.

The quadrilateral tie-up did not materialise because, within a year, there was a change of government in Australia. The new prime minister, Kevin Rudd, wanted Australia to develop closer trade and economic ties with China.  Therefore, the Australian government announced that it was not interested in being part of such a tie-up.  The Manmohan Singh government also thought it fit not to pursue the idea after this.

With Shinzo Abe, the rightwing nationalist, coming back to power in Japan, the quadrilateral idea was once again pursued by Japan aggressively.  During the UPA government, the trilateral security alliance with Japan and USA was established. In the year 2010, the Malabar exercises saw the participation of all the four countries including Australia.

Under President Obama, the US announced its “pivot” to Asia and shifted 60 per cent of its naval forces to the Asia-Pacific region. India was wooed as the lynchpin for its pivot.  Since then, we have seen growing pressure on India to establish a full-fledged military alliance with the United States of America. 

After the Modi government came to power, in January 2015, during President Obama’s visit to India, a Joint Vision Statement for the Asia-Pacific and the Indian Ocean region was signed by the two countries.  In this statement, India formally joined the US strategy in the Asia-Pacific region by promising to converge its “Act East policy” to the Asian pivot of the United States. 

The forging of a quadrilateral security alliance by India is an acknowledgement that it has embraced the US strategy of containing China. Japan and Australia are two prominent military alliance partners of the United States.  India has now put itself in that category. 

This is a major step the Modi government has taken to become a junior partner of the US in Asia.  The United States seeks to flatter India by calling the Asia-Pacific region the “Indo-Pacific” region.  It seeks to boost India’s ego by making it a centerpiece of its Asia-Pacific strategy. In America’s strategic doctrine, India is a key counterweight to China.

At the same time, the United States has the commercial interest of selling large-scale weaponry to India by making it a military ally.  For President Trump, who had set out the doctrine of “America First”, making money and creating jobs in America out of the sale of sophisticated defence equipment to India is one of the primary goals.

The reality is that India’s three partners in the quadrilateral alliance are having close economic and trade relations with China.   Despite their conflicts with China, their economies are inextricably tied to the rising economic strength of China. 

The US-China trade was a huge 650 billion dollars in 2016. China is also the largest holder of US debt. More than $1.24 trillion in the form of treasury bonds, bills etc of US debt is owned by China which is 10 per cent of the publicly held American debt.  In turn, the United States has large investments in China. 

As far as Japan is concerned, its trade with China amounts to $340 billion and China is Japan’s largest trading partner.  Japan is also the biggest foreign investor in China with over $100 billion investment, as per last year’s figures.

As far as Australia is concerned, China is the topmost trading partner.  28.8 per cent of its exports are to China. 

India is the largest economy in Asia after China and Japan, yet, its trade with China was only $70.8 billion in 2016.  This was a 2.1 per cent decline over the previous year.  It would be in India’s interest to increase trade and economic ties with China which is the engine driving the global economy.  Yet, instead of acting on enlightened self-interest, India is being used by the United States and its allies to fire at China using its shoulders. 

India is playing the game which America wants it to, of complicating relations with China by taking a stand on the disputes in the South China Sea which has no strategic relevance for India. The more India ties up with United States in strategic-military terms, the more it will spoil relations with China. But the curious thing is that while India does this job for America by joining the quadrilateral alliance, its three partners continue to economically benefit with their trade and investments in China.  During President Trump’s visit to China last week, 250 billion dollars worth of business deals were signed.

By refusing to cooperate with the massive `One Belt One Road’ campaign, by putting obstacles to Chinese investments in India’s infrastructure building and acting as the US surrogate to fight its battles with China, the Modi government is only harming India’s interests.

Where is the `nationalism’ in Modi’s strategic and foreign policy? The “nationalist” Modi government is mortgaging India’s national sovereignty and compromising India’s national interest by subordinating itself to America’s strategic interests.