February 28, 2016
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India-Pakistan Relations: Impact of the Pathankot Terror Attack

Yohannan Chemarapally

THE failed terror attack on the strategically located Indian Air Force base in Pathankot on January 2 was an obvious attempt to derail the dialogue process between India and Pakistan. Around the same time, there was an attempt to storm the Indian consulate in the Afghan city of Mazhar-i-Sharif. Prompt action by Afghan security forces foiled that attempt. Afghan security officials have said that the militants who tried to storm the consulate were well trained and highly motivated. The foreign secretary level talks between the two countries were scheduled to the held on January 15. The dates were announced soon after the Indian prime minister's surprise visit to his Pakistani counterpart's private residence in Lahore on December 25. The terror attack happened barely a week after the Indian prime minister's visit. The terror attack, according to the Indian authorities, was the handiwork of the Pakistani radical group, the Jaish -e- Mohammad (JeM). The leader of the group, Maulana Masood Azar, was one of the three prisoners freed by India in 1999 after the hijacking of an Indian Airlines plane to Kandahar. A militant Kashmiri group, calling itself the “United Jihadi Council” is claiming credit for the terror attacks in both Pathankot and Mazhar, though the Indian authorities have debunked their claims. The group claims that they carried out the attacks to avenge the hanging of the Kashmiri separatist leader, Afzal Guru. In June last year Pakistani terrorists who had infiltrated across the border had staged an attack in Gurdaspur, another town in Punjab. That attack too had caught the authorities napping. The attack on the Pathankot base which had prolonged for almost three days had claimed the lives of seven Indian security personnel, including a senior army officer deputed to the National Security Guard (NSG). Six terrorists involved in the attack were also killed. The terrorists had crossed the border from Pakistan into Punjab. After hijacking cars, including a vehicle belonging to a Punjab police officer, they headed towards the air force base. Their intent was to sneak in and destroy the strategic assets of the IAF like fighter planes parked inside the base. In Pakistan, groups like the al Qaeda, the Tehreek-i- Taliban have attacked 31 military installations. The Pakistani Taliban had attacked a key naval base in Karachi in 2011 and 2014, inflicting serious damage. The terrorist who sneaked into India probably wanted to replicate that kind of attack. Luckily, the terrorists who infiltrated the perimeter of the Indian base in Pathankot could only reach up to the Officers living quarters. The JeM unlike the Pakistani Taliban has been focusing mainly on the Kashmir issue. For this reason it is believed, that some sections of the powerful Pakistani security establishment treat this particular terrorist outfit with kid gloves. The JeM is a banned organisation in Pakistan but many of its leaders are allowed to operate freely. The group and its leader were involved in an assassination attempt against the former Pakistani President, Pervez Musharraf, when he was in power. But there are also indications that the Pakistani army which has a decisive say in the formulation of foreign and defense policies, is now more committed to the eradication of terrorist outfits from its soil, including those groups like the JeM and the Taliban, that it had originally nurtured. Pakistan's army chief, Gen. Raheel Sharif, has pledged to root out terrorism from the country by the end of 2016. The attack on the Army Public school in Peshawar and the targeting of the children of army officers by the Pakistani Taliban was a game changer. The Sunni extremist groups in Pakistan are also targeting the minority Shias on a regular basis. The Pakistani army's anti-terror fight is focused on groups like the Tehreek-i-Taliban and the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ). Many of the leaders of these two outfits have been taken out. In December, Pakistan had also promised a speedy conclusion to the trial of the seven men accused of involvement in the 2008 Mumbai terror attacks carried out by the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT). After a high level meeting attended by the chiefs of the Pakistani army, the ISI along with the DGMO and the NSA on January 8, a statement was issued in which it was emphasised that the people of Pakistan “have evolved a political consensus for action against all terrorists and terrorist organisations without any distinction, and have resolved that no terrorist would be allowed to use Pakistan's soil for committing terrorism anywhere in the world”. The Indian government has come in for criticism on the way it handled the latest terror attack. There was a failure on the intelligence front with various government agencies acting at cross purposes. The hijacking of the Punjab police officer's car by terrorists disguised in Indian military uniforms should have alerted the authorities about the impending danger. Police Superintendent Satwinder Singh's car was hijacked on the morning of January 1. His complaint to his seniors was not taken seriously and was taken as a case of “armed robbery”. The terrorists were allowed to roam free for more than 24 hours and then stake out the periphery of the Pathankot air base. The base was guarded by the Defense Security Corps (DSC). The DSC is a unit comprising of army veterans, set up by defense ministry to guard military bases. Many military analysts argue that a more specialised and better trained force is needed to guard high value military facilities. The government after prematurely announcing that the terror threat was neutralised on the first day had to rush in the NSG to flush out the remaining terrorists. A retired army commando said that the army should have been given the job to take on the terrorists. “Trained army commandos would have finished the job in a short time”, he said. The military has blamed the government for only relying on the NSG to tackle the terrorists. The central government claims that it had given advanced warning to the Air Force that its base was under imminent threat. The Punjab government has put the blame on the Border Security Force (BSF) for letting the terrorist slip through the border. The border between the two countries despite fencing has not stopped infiltration. The sharp rise in the smuggling of drugs originating from Afghanistan has had an adverse impact on border security. The highly lucrative illegal trade in narcotics has had a corrupting influence on the BSF and the police force in Punjab. Soon after the Pathankot attack, the Indian government gave a virtual ultimatum to Islamabad to take immediate action against those involved in the Pathankot attack. In response, the Pakistani Prime minister, Nawaz Sharif made a statement declaring that Islamabad would not hesitate to take “prompt and decisive action” if the involvement of Pakistani based elements in the attack was proved beyond doubt. On February 11, Pakistani authorities announced that they had some arrests in Bahawalpur, the hometown of the JeM chief, Maulana Masood Azhar. According to the Pakistani media, the arrests were made on the basis of clues provided by Indian authorities relating to the attack on the Pathankot base. The Pakistani security agencies have carried out raids in Jhelum and Gujranwala. Prime Minister Sharif has constituted a joint investigating team to look into possible links of the terrorist involved in Pathankot with groups and individuals based in Pakistan. The Indian government had insisted on “visible steps” to be taken by Islamabad for the January 15 talks to go ahead. The Indian external affairs ministry has stated that it has provided “actionable intelligence” about those in Pakistan complicit in the Pathankot attack. “As far as we are concerned, the ball is now in Pakistan's court”, the ministry's spokesman said, when asked about the possibility of bilateral talks proceeding as scheduled. “The immediate issue before us is Pakistan's response to the terrorist attack”, he said. During his telephone call to Prime Minister Sharif, the Indian prime minister had called for “firm and immediate action” against those involved in the Pathankot strike. Sharif told Modi that the terror attack was a ploy to sabotage the peace process that they had initiated together. The international community wants talks between the two countries to continue. The American Secretary of State, John Kerry, has urged both countries keep the talks going “despite efforts to thwart the process”. The Chinese government said that the terror attack on the Indian military base was done with the intention of disrupting talks between Islamabad and New Delhi. “India and Pakistan are important countries in South Asia. The improvement of relations between the two countries is of paramount importance to regional peace and stability. China hopes that India and Pakistan can enhance their cooperation and dialogue regardless of these disruptions”, the Chinese foreign ministry spokesman said. In the Indian capital, immediately after the terror attacks, there were loud calls for the cancellation of talks. There were suggestions that the terror attack could have been the handiwork of the Pakistani army that was apparently displeased with being left out of the loop by the Pakistani prime minister regarding his meeting with Narendra Modi. Pakistan's National Security Adviser (NSA), Retd. Lt. Gen. Naseer Khan Janjua, was a close military colleague of the current Pakistani military chief. It was the secret talks between him and his Indian counterpart that laid the groundwork for the resumption of talks. By the second week of January, tempers had cooled down a little in Delhi. India's National Security Adviser (NSA), Ajit Doval had to retract from a statement he made on January 11 saying that there will be no foreign secretary talks on January 15 and that India will only continue with the talks “only if Pakistan takes action”. That the Indian position has mellowed was apparent from the statement made by the Indian Home Minister, Rajnath Singh on January 12. He said that there is no reason to distrust Pakistan's assurance that it will take effective action on inputs given by the Indian authorities about the perpetrators of the Pathankot attack.